Thursday, September 29, 2011

The Health Care Bill and the 2012 Election

The Health Care Bill is going to the Supreme Court.

OK- putting on the political gamesmanship hat here...

It's August 2012.  The election is three months away.  And the Supreme Court makes a decision that finds the Health Care Bill Unconstitutional.

Doesn't that enrage the supporters of the bill?  And with the election so soon thereafter, wouldn't that emotion lead them to go to the voting booth to take out their anger?

It works the other way, too- if the Supreme Court found the Bill Constitutional, it's the opponents of the Bill who are willing to walk over broken glass to take out their anger at the voting booth.

So, by timing the Health Care Bill so that it's decided by the Supreme Court before the 2012 election, it's almost a version of a Hedge Bet- the side that loses the Health Care Issue will gain at the polls.

By appealing the Appellate decision when they did, the Administration wants the Health care Bill to be decided before the election.

So here's my question- do they want the Supreme Court to find the Bill Constitutional?  Or would they rather improve their chances for re-election if the Supreme Court finds it Unconstitutional?


Sunday, September 25, 2011

Suggestions to improve Major League Baseball


Ideas to improve baseball:

* Salary Cap, Salary Floor, splitting money on TV deals

Somehow, I've become a sports socialist.  Strange for a confirmed capitalist like myself, but I'll explain.

If you own a Mom-and-Pop Diner, you're not trying to compete with McDonald's.  You're trying to make a profit.  If McDonald's sells a billion burgers, you don't care, as long as you're making money.  Even though you're in the same industry, you're not using the same scorecard.

Not so in sports.  For every team that wins, some other team MUST lose.  And when you have some teams spending 200 million while other teams are spending 30 million, it creates a disparity that is impossible to overcome.

I understand.  Right now, the system works for a lot of people.  It works for the Yankees- they spend money, win titles, make money.  It works for the small market teams like Pittsburgh- they don't spend money, but they make enough to earn a profit.  It works for the players- the teams with money spend a fortune to get their stars on their teams.  It works for everyone.

Unless you're a fan of a small market team.  Like me.  Then, the system doesn't work.  Oh sure.... if EVERYTHING breaks right and the Tribe gets 4-5 young players to develop, they have a 1-2 year window to win a title before the Yankees and Red Sox take their players.  Then it's time to rebuild when the window closes.  But teams like the Yankees and Red Sox never have a window of opportunity.  They just reload every year.

Really- unless you're a fan of a big-spending team, it's a really bad idea to root for a team in baseball.  And a few years ago, I stopped trying.

What would it take to fix this?  A salary cap.  It's one thing for the largest market to outspend the smallest by a 2 to 1 ratio.  But 6-1, 7-1 is impossible to overcome for 162 games.  A cap and a floor would get the ratio to a manageable level, and keep the players happy by forcing the smaller markets to spend money.


Now, the Yankees get a ton of money from their cable network- much more than the smaller market teams get.  And they end up with all of the proceeds from the cable deals.  With the tickets, they split the proceeds with the other team (and vice-versa).  Why can't this apply to the cable deals as well?  The Yankees might dismiss teams like the Royals, but how will they make their cable deals if the Royals just refuse to play?  

* Change the variables to allows more styles to win
OK- I love the book Moneyball.  I love the concept behind Moneyball- that by using statistical analysis, a smart team can find talent that is underappreciated and a bargain, and use those players to put together a team that is more successful than one that spends more money.
It worked- the Oakland A's could never reach the World Series, but could match any team's record, even though it was outspent by a fortune.
The problem was, Moneyball worked too well.  Smart teams figured out what the A's were doing and replicated the results.  And success is duplicated- which lead to several teams using the Moneyball formula.
And the Moneyball formula- get players with low batting averages and high on-base percentage with power, sacrificing defense for offense- is not an exciting form of baseball to watch.
My favorite period to watch baseball was in the 80's, and a large part of the reason was that there were several styles that succeeded in creating winning teams.  You had teams winning by pitching (1985 Kansas City Royals), by speed and defense (1985 and 1987 St. Louis Cardinals), by power (1988-89 Oakland Athletics).  When every team is a duplicate of each other, the game gets boring.
Right now, all of the outside factors favors teams that build around on-base percentage and power- "Three-run Homers".  As long as that is the most successful formula for baseball, every team will duplicate it.
How to fix it?  
- Widen the strike zone so that batters stop trying to draw walks
- Allow the pitcher to only throw a couple times to first base to encourage stolen bases
- Encourage new stadiums to be larger and favor pitchers over hitters
You don't want to go to the extreme of the 60's, when pitching dominated.  You want to strike a balance when any style can win.

* Revert back to two divisions per league.


Here two simple rules of thumb:
1)  The more playoff teams, the less important the regular season is
2)  The more teams and the fewer games, the more you need playoffs

So football- 32 teams, but only 16 games in a season- needs playoffs.  It's too easy for one team to play an easy schedule and end up with more wins than a better team that played a tougher schedule.  

But baseball has 162 games in a season.  Everyone plays everyone else 6-7 times, at a minimum.  There's no need for multiple rounds of playoffs- the regular season is enough to determine who the best teams are.

If you go back and recalculate the past few seasons with two divisions, you realize that we've missed out on some incredible September playoff hunts.  In fact, my friend dboy has done so here.

And don't tell me about the wild card- no one cares if the fourth or fifth best team makes the playoff.  We want epic pennant races, like the Braves and Giants in 1993.  Not coincidentally, that was the last year before the Wild Card was introduced.

Go back to two divisions in each league (I'd even support the pre-1969 rules and only have one division per league, but I think I'd be outvoted here) and the games in September mean a lot more.

* Hold Interleague games in one year every decade

Interleague play has ruined the All Star game.  Part of the magic of baseball was that the two leagues never interacted, so people in Seattle never saw National League players.  But Interleague play also is a moneymaker for several cities.  

OK- we can't get rid of it.  But by having it every year, it ruins the impact.  Change it so that it happens only once every ten years- it makes the interleague games more meaningful.

Becoming a two-cat family

We've had a cat since before we bought the house.  My brother suggested getting a cat for the half of the duplex when we lived together- two weeks later, he was on the fence about having a cat while I couldn't imagine not having one.  As for Katie, she's always claimed to have "Feline Affinity" as a gift- cats naturally like her.  Smokey certainly did.

A friend of ours has a cat that had to have a new home.  Pippin is a seven year old male (Smokey is about 12 years old and female), and came over today.  Currently he's in the basement in his 'kitten condo'- he seems to be adjusting to the new house fine.  Smokey- we're not so sure about.  She's hidden herself either under the couch or the bed for the entire day, even when Pippen was locked in his condo.  We're hoping she'll get used to Pippen over time- especially since his cage is near both her food and her litter box.

At this point, I can't imagine our house without a cat.  Odd for someone who grew up with a series of dogs and only one cat.  Now it feels like "A house just doesn't seem like a home without a pet".

Saturday, September 17, 2011

Fantasy Draft- SNL

I'm a sucker for fantasy drafts.  I used to play in fantasy baseball and basketball leagues, and still have a couple of fantasy football leagues that I play in. 

Recently, some friends of mine and I did a "Saturday Night Live" fantasy draft.  The rules were simple:

- 10 cast members, minimum 2 females (could pick from anyone who was an official cast member)
- 1 host
- 1 musical guest
- pick a news anchor from your cast members

It was interesting to see who went where and what people valued.  For instance, my top choice would have been Dan Aykroyd- but apparently a lot of people felt so, as he went #1 overall.

Out of eight teams, I ended up with the #7 pick overall (Rule #12- in any draft, I end up with one of the last numbers).  Here's the cast that I drafted:

Host: Buck Henry
Music act: Aerosmith

Cast:
Gilda Radner
Mike Myers
Jane Curtain- News Anchor
Robert Downey, Jr.
Billy Crystal
Andy Samberg
Joan Cusack
Michael McKean
Harry Shearer
Gilbert Gottfried

Almost- ALMOST- had all three members of Spinal Tap, but Christopher Guest was taken two picks before my turn.

Not a bad cast- a lot of people who had better post-SNL careers than during SNL, but I like the promise.  Buck Henry was a fantastic host.  And on any show with "Wayne's World" and 2/3 of Spinal Tap, I need a Heavy Metal band to work with.

Saturday, September 10, 2011

9-11 thoughts

September 11, 2001 was a Tuesday.  I remember being at work, chatting on AIM with my friend Dre, when he said that two planes had hit the World Trade Center.

My first thought were that two biplanes were flying around the city and hit the towers.  I was thinking that the planes were destroyed, but it didn't even occur to me that the towers were damaged.

Then another post- a plane had also hit the Pentagon.  And that's when it sunk in- not an accident.  An attack. 

Someone at work found a tv and plugged it in, and we watched the first tower fall.  Heard that a fourth plane had crashed in Pennsylvania- people were wondering if we had shot down our own plane. 

I made some calls to my brothers.  The attacks had taken place in New York and Washington DC.  We lived in Cleveland, and my youngest brother and parents lived in St. Louis, so they were safe, right?

Only- my parents were visiting my dad's relatives- in Washington DC.  Suddenly the calls got a LOT more frantic- cell reception was shot. 

Some time later- an hour?  two?  My mom was finally able to call us.  They were in DC, but safe.  They couldn't drive out of the city, but were walking and were nowhere near the Pentagon when the plane crashed.

The rest of the day was a blur.  The second tower fell.  I'm still amazed that, for all of the damage done, only (only?) 2,800 people died.  That number could have easily been 10 times that.  In the original bombing of the World Trade Center, in 1993, the plan was to knock one tower into the second, which would have killed many more.

One thing I remember was going to a bar after work, and seeing Congress- Republicans and Democrats- all standing outside, singing "God Bless America."  All I could think was that the shit had hit the fan- this was serious in a way that nothing had been for a long, long time.

It's a decade later.  A lot has happened since then.  Al Qaeda, the terrorist ground that executed 9/11, is still around but in tatters.  Osama Bin Laden is wormfood.  We've been partly good and partly lucky in that there hasn't been another attack on our soil since then. 

Are there lessons from 9-11?  There aren't that many truly evil people in the world- but anyone who thinks that killing thousands of innocent people is a good way to get your cause across qualifies.  We do what we can to protect ourselves, but every form of protection has a price.  In the end, we do what we can, and hope that it is enough.

Thursday, September 8, 2011

Fearless NFL Predictions!

Not necessarily accurate- but fearless:

AFC East:  New England Patriots
AFC North:  Pittsburgh Steelers
AFC South:  Houston Texans
AFC West:  San Diego Chargers
Wild Cards:  New York Jets, Baltimore Ravens

NFC East:  Phialedlphia Eagles
NFC North:  Green Bay Packers
NFC South:  New Orleans Saints
NFC West:  St. Louis Rams
Wild Cards:  Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Dallas Cowboys

AFC Champion:      Pittsburgh SteelersNFC Champion:      Philadelphia Eagles
Super Bowl XLVI:    Philadelphia wins, 27-21

Andrew Luck Sweepstakes (worst record in football):  Cincinnati Bengals

And my beloved Cleveland Browns?  7-9.  Easier schedule, but learning a new system.  OTOH, I think Colt McCoy will settle any QB issues for the new few years.   

Wednesday, September 7, 2011

Playing music with an accent

I play music pretty much on the same level as I speak foreign languages. It's not very well, and what I do know is more from rote learning than natural ability. Instead of following along with a song and understanding how the music flows, I have to break it down- "OK, this is a 'C' chord. So I have to put my fingers here, here and... here." It's time-consuming, and awkward. I play music with a bad accent, in other words.

I don't know if it's a case of lack of effort, or that I started too late, or just that I lack the ability to do it well. Probably a combination of all three. I didn't try to learn until I was 18, when I bought a guitar and attempted to teach myself. And moving from one chord to another is an adventure- a slow, slow adventure. How the heck people fly up and down the frets on guitar solos amazes me. I've gone through spurts of practices- weeks where I'll be playing almost daily, then months where I won't pick up the guitar.

My thought is that after 'X' amount of time, something will click, and I'll be able to understand music on an automatic level- but there's also a good possibility that, no matter how much I practice, I've already reached my plateau.

It's even this way on games like 'Guitar Hero'- I can finish any song on medium level, but on the hard songs (which require using all five notes) I'm toast.

Here's my question (for anyone who plays an instrument)- about how many hours of practice did it take for you to become proficient? Is there a point that things just clicked, and when was it?

Tuesday, September 6, 2011

Fantasy Football

Football starts this week.  I'm in two leagues, but only one of them is a money league (and bragging rights.  can't forget the bragging rights.)  Last year, Arian Foster got me into the playoffs... and that's when my team fell apart.

Here's the roster for this year:

QB- Michael Vick, Matt Schaub
RB- Darren McFadden, LeGarrette Blount, Mark Ingram, Reggie Bush, Derrick Ward
WR- Mike Wallace, Brandon Marshall, lee Evans, Steve Smith, Greg Little
TE- Jason Witten
Def- Atlanta Falcons
K- Alex Henery

No Patriots, as the wife has threatened to kill me (gee, you draft Thom Brady in the first round on the year he's injured in the first quarter ONE TIME, and you get a reputation as a sports curse...)

We shall see how it turns out.

Monday, September 5, 2011

Starting up.

Hi there.

I used to blog over there.  Now I'm here, mainly because Livejournal has gotten a lot of spam and I'd like to change where I'm posting my thoughts.

My blogging runs hot and cold- I'm on facebook and twitter, but neither website is a good place to write more in-depth thoughts.

If you're here for the first time, welcome aboard.  Always up for a discussion or an argument, but let's keep things on a professional level.