SignalGate: A blunder that will stick

There's an old French saying, attributed to Antoine Boulay, that goes, "It was worse than a crime; it was a blunder."  That's my initial thought hearing that Trump officials used an unsecured service (Signal) and shared attack plans with a journalist.  But I suspect this blunder will stick around a while, and really hurt the Trump administration in a way many scandals and crimes haven't.

Trump learned a lesson a long time ago- if you have one scandal, people focus on it.  If you have a dozen, it becomes background noise, and people tune out.  (Bill Clinton also mastered this lesson).  So most scandals that you would expect would have sunk Trump never seem to stick to him.  

But I think this one will, unless Trump takes decisive action quickly.  People form opinions about politicians (and really, any public figures).  Those opinions get hardened over time into their reputations.  Scandals and Crimes that fit in with those reputations don't matter- people are expecting them.

So Trump could sleep with a porn star and pay her off to be quiet, and it doesn't matter.  We (the public) expect Donald Trump to do that.  When he acts like an ass, we shrug; Trump has always been a vulgar ass.  That's part of his package- no one is surprised when he acts that way.

But he's also supposed to have built a reputation as a guy who doesn't tolerate failure.  Hell, his catchphrase was "You're Fired".  When underlings screw up, Trump is supposed to can them, quickly.  That's his reputation as well.

So there's two choices here:

Trump can act quickly, firing people who allowed this to happen (the obvious scalp is Mike Waltz, who accidentally invited Jeff Goldberg to the chat).  That is in line with Trump's reputation, and if that happens, this will go away like every other scandal.

But if Trump doesn't, the public will notice.  Now, keeping loyal people who botch things is allowed for most Presidents.  But that's not Trump's reputation.  It will look bad, and he has enough problems already.  At some point, the decline in popularity becomes too difficult to climb out of.  And while Trump is President for four years, the people have votes even this year to swap over the House.  

Major League Baseball 2025 Predictions

 Predicting the order, not the record

The Once and Future Champions

American League:

East:
1.  New York Yankees
2.  Baltimore Orioles (Wild Card)
3.  Toronto Blue Jays (Wild Card)
4.  Boston Red Sox
5. Tampa Bay Rays

Central:
1.  Detroit Tigers
2.  Kansas City Royals (Wild Card)
3.  Minnesota Twins
4.  Cleveland Guardians
5.  Chicago White Sox

West:  

1.  Seattle Mariners

2.  Houston Astros

3.  Texas Ranger

4.  Sacramento Atheltics

5.  Los Angles Angles

Playoffs:
- Detroit over Toronto
- Baltimore over Kansas City
- Detroit over Seattle
- New York Yankees over Baltimore
- New York Yankees over Detroit

National League:

East:
1.  New York Mets
2.  Philadelphia Phillies (Wild Card)
3. Atlanta Braves (Wild Card)
4. Washington Nationals
5. Miami Marlins

Central:
1.  Milwaukee Brewers
2.  Chicago Cubs
3.  Cincinnati Reds
4.  St. Louis Cardinals
5.  Pittsburgh Pirates

West:  

1.  Los Angeles Dodgers

2.  San Diego Padres (Wild Card)

3.  San Francisco Giants

4.  Arizona Diamondbacks

5.  Colorado Rockies

Playoffs:
- Philadelphia over San Diego
- Atlanta over Milwaukee
- Los Angeles Dodgers over Atlanta
- New York Mets over Philadelphia
- Los Angeles Dodgers over New York Mets

World Series:

It's a repeat of last year, and the results will be the same.  Dodgers win, 4-1

At some point, the resources the Dodgers put into their team just overwhelm everything.  The Dodgers are guaranteed to win the next five World Series- but right now, I don't see why I'd bet against them winning this year- or the next year- or the year after that.

This is what Major League Baseball wants.  We'll see if this is what the fans want.

Set your markers

God I'd tired of politics.

Partrly, I'm just tired, period.  My wife's 50th birthday was this week, and our plan was to go to Vermont and attend a baking class.  Long story short, we spent three days driving in a combination of freezing rain and whiteout conditions, had one fender bender, made it to Vermont but not to the class, and I was so stressed that I lost seven pounds in four days.  The lesson learned- no trips to the Northeast in February.

But I'm also tired of politics- in large part because we've got two parties that are not only convinced they are right, but that if you support the opposite side there must be something wrong with you.  And it's only gotten worse since the Inauguration.  Trump and his team are making a lot of moves.  And the friends who I have that support him since he's doing a great job and making the tough decisions, while the people who don't like Trump think he's destroying the country.

Fine.  I'm an engineer.  I measure things for a living.  Let's set some parameters and then see the results of Trump's decisions.  I'll try to be as fair an objective as possible.  My goal is simple- come back in a year and check these same numbers, using the same sources, and compare the results.  

I'll give the date and values of when I've started measuring, along with my sources

1)  The current national debt.

Date Measured:   09/19/2025

Source:  US Debt Clock

Current valve:  $36.499 Trillion

Current ratio of US Federal Debt to GDP:  123.02%

2)  US Employment Rate

Not the unemployment rate, which only accounts for people looking for jobs.  This is the percentage of the number of people who have a job as a percentage of the working age population (people beteween the ages of 15 and 64)

Date Mesaured:   January 2025

Source:  US Employment Rate

Current Value:  60.10%

3)  Consumer Price Index

This measures the 12 month change in prices

Date Mesaured:   January 2025

Source:  US Bureau of Labor Statistics

All items:   3.0%

Food:  2.5%

Energy:  1.0%

All items less food and energy:  3.3%

4)  National average fuel price:

Date measured:   02/19/2025

Source:  AAA Fuel Prices

Current Value:  $3.164

5)  Average rent price in the US

Date Measured:   November 2024

Source:  Rentcafe

Current rate:  $1,748

6)  Average and Median US Income:

The average salary is the sum of all income devided by the number of workers.  The median salary is the midpoint, where 50% of the population is above the line and 50% is below the line

Date Measured:  Q4 2024

Source:  SoFi Learn

Current Average Salary:  $63,795

Current Median Salary:  $61,984

7)  Current population below poverty line

Date Measured:   2023

Source:  American Progress

Poverty Threshold:  $30,900 for a family of four

Poverty Rate:  11.1%

I welcome other parameters.  They should be objective, easy to understand, and easy to check.

2024-2025 NFL Playoffs Support Rankings

Another year, another set of NFL Playoffs.  I'm ranking the 14 playoff teams by two methods- are they likely to win the Super Bowl, and who I want to win the Super Bowl.

Let's do the 'likely to win' rating first:

1. Detroit Lions
2. Kansas City Chiefs
3. Buffalo Bills
4. Minnesota Vikings
5. Philadelphia Eagles
6. Baltimore Ravens
7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
8. Washington Commanders
9. Los Angeles Chargers
10. Green Bay Packers
11. Pittsburgh Steelers
12. Los Angeles Rams
13. Houston Texans
14. Denver Broncos

This is an exciting year.  Three franchises that have never won the Super Bowl (the Lions, Bills, and Vikings) have a legitimate shot to win it all this year.  The Bills and Vikings have lost in heartbreaking fashion, while the Lions have never even made the Super Bowl.

The Chiefs have the best record- but keep winning by relatively slim margins.  And they've won te last two Super Bowls.  I don't hate the Chiefs, but I really want to see some new blood win.

My ranking for who I want to win:

1. Detroit Lions
2. Buffalo Bills
3. Minnesota Vikings (then a gap)
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Baker winning would be a chefs kiss, as a former Browns fan)
5. Los Angeles Chargers (the Chargers have never won the Super Bowl, either)
6. Green Bay Packers
7. Pittsburgh Steelers
8. Kansas City Chiefs (great team; just don't need to see them again)
9. Washington Commanders
10. Philadelphia Eagles
11. Denver Broncos
12. Los Angeles Rams
13. Houston Texans (then a large gap...)
14. Baltimore Ravens (Why yes, I'm still bitter...)

Goodbye, 2024- Wrapping up the year

I called 2023 a "Low Key Terrible Year".  2024 seems to be the opposite- it wasn't low key.  Instead, it was the year we opened up the floodgates and realized how bad things were.

Everyone in the US is focussed on the Presidential election of 2024.  My own $0.11 is that both parties tried very hard to lose this election, and the Democrats were better at that.  So we end up with Donald Trump, the sequel.  I contend that the US is strong enough to survive bad politicians and bad Presidents, and we were getting a bad President no matter what.  

And it's not just the election- monopolies are gaining too much power, the debt continues to spiral out of control, we still have wars in Ukraine, Sudan, and Palestine.  South Korea is having an existential crisis.  A CEO for United Health Care was gunned down, and some people are cheering his murderer.  To say that there are problems is understating things.

But we're acknowledging it.  There's a reason so many incumbent parties (not just the US, but the UK, South Korea, France, Japan, India) lost power in the elections in 2024.  People are not happy with the status quo.  They say they first step to fixing the problem is acknowledging that the problem exists.  In 2024, the World shouted that there was a problem.  2025 starts the long process of trying to make things better.  Will the replacements be any better?  *shrug*.  

I look to science and tech to improve the world, and I admit- AI confuses me.  It seemingly costs a fortune both in money and energy needs, and in theory the end result is a world where thousands of people not only lose their current jobs, but cannot find replacement jobs.  I don't see how this makes things better.  But other technologies- in medicine, in energy- give me hope for the future.

I would say this- 2024 was the year we put a spotlight on the problems.  It's ugly and it's necessary.  The next step is trying to fix the problems.

Peter Gabriel Retrospective: Album 09- I/O (Bright Side/Dark Side Mix)

 

Album:  I/O

Year Released:    2023

Lineup: 

Principal musicians

• Peter Gabriel – lead vocals, backing vocals, treated vocals (on "And Still") keyboards, synths, piano (on "The Court", "So Much", "Olive Tree", "Love Can Heal", "And Still" and "Live and Let Live"), programming (on "Panopticom", "The Court", "I/O", "Road to Joy", "Olive Tree", "This Is Home", "And Still" and "Live and Let Live"), percussion (on "Four Kinds of Horses", "Love Can Heal", and "Live and Let Live"), manipulated charango (on "Road to Joy"), glass harp (on "And Still")
• David Rhodes – guitars (except on "Playing for Time"), acoustic guitar (on "Olive Tree"), acoustic 12 string guitar (on "So Much" and "Olive Tree"), backing vocals
• Tony Levin – basses
• Manu Katché – drums (except on "Four Kinds of Horses", "So Much","Love Can Heal" and "And Still")
• Ged Lynch – percussion (on "Olive Tree", "Love Can Heal", and "And Still")
• Tom Cawley – piano (on "Playing for Time")
• Evan Smith – saxophone (on "Olive Tree")
• Josh Shpak – trumpet (on "Road to Joy" and "Olive Tree")
• Melanie Gabriel – backing vocals (on "The Court", "Four Kinds of Horses", "So Much", "Love Can Heal" and "Live and Let Live)
• Ríoghnach Connolly – backing vocals (on "Panopticom", "Love Can Heal" and "This Is Home")
• Jennie Abrahamson – backing vocals (on "Love Can Heal")
• Linnea Olsson – cello (on "Love Can Heal"), backing vocals (on "Love Can Heal")
• Angie Pollock – synths (on "Love Can Heal")
• Brian Eno – synths (on "Panopticom", "The Court", "This Is Home" and "Live and Let Live"), bells (on "Panopticom"), percussion (on "The Court"), rhythm programming and progressing (on "Four Kinds of Horses" and "Road to Joy"), electric worms and additional synths (on "Four Kinds of Horses"), manipulated guitar and ukulele (on "Road to Joy"), rhythm programming (on "Live and Let Live")
• Oli Jacobs – synths (on "Panopticom", "Playing for Time", "I/O" and "This Is Home"), programming (on "Panopticom", "The Court", "I/O", "This Is Home" and "Live and Let Live"), piano (on "Four Kinds of Horses"), tambourine (on "This is Home")
• Don-E – bass synth (on "Road to Joy")
• Katie May – acoustic guitar (on "Panopticom" and "I/O"), percussion (on "The Court", "This Is Home" and "Live and Let Live"), Rickenbacker guitar (on "I/O"), synths (on "I/O"), rhythm programming (on "Four Kinds of Horses"), guitar effects (on "Love Can Heal")
• Richard Evans – D whistle (on "I/O"), mandolin (on "Olive Tree")
• Richard Chappell – programming (on "Panopticom", "The Court", "I/O", "Olive Tree", "And Still" and "Live and Let Live")
• Richard Russell – filtered percussion (on "Four Kinds of Horses")
• Hans-Martin Buff – additional percussion and synths (on "Road to Joy")
• Ron Aslan – additional synths (on "Road to Joy")
• Oli Middleton – percussion (on "This Is Home")
• Paolo Fresu – trumpet (on "Live and Let Live")
• Steve Gadd – brush loop (on "Live and Let Live")

Orchestral and choral musicians

• Violins: Everton Nelson, Ian Humphries, Louisa Fuller, Charles Mutter, Cathy Thompson, Natalia Bonner, Richard George, Marianne Haynes, Martin Burgess, Clare Hayes, Debbie Widdup, Odile Ollagnon
• Violas: Bruce White, Fiona Bonds, Peter Lale, Rachel Roberts
• Cellos: Ian Burdge (including solo cello on "And Still"), Chris Worsey, Caroline Dale, William Schofield, Tony Woollard, Chris Allan
• Double basses: Chris Laurence, Stacey Watton, Lucy Shaw
• Trumpet: Andrew Crowley
• Tenor trombone/Euphonium: Andy Wood
• Tenor trombone: Tracy Holloway
• Bass trombone: Richard Henry
• Tuba: David Powell
• French horn: David Pyatt, Richard Bissill
• Flute: Eliza Marshall
• Orchestra conductor: John Metcalfe
• Orchestra leader: Everton Nelson
• Orchestral arrangements: John Metcalfe, Peter Gabriel (on "The Court", "So Much", "Olive Tree", "And Still" and "Live and Let Live") and Ed Shearmur (on "Playing for Time")
• The Soweto Gospel Choir: (on "I/O", "Road to Joy" and "Live and Let Live")^[66]
  • Soprano: Linda Sambo, Nobuhle Dhlamini, Phello Jiyane, Victoria Sithole
  • Alto: Maserame Ndindwa, Phumla Nkhumeleni, Zanele Ngwenya, Duduzile Ngomane
  • Tenor: George Kaudi, Vusimuzi Shabalala, Xolani Ntombela, Victor Makhathini
  • Bass: Thabang Mkhwanazi, Goodwill Modawu, Warren Mahlangu, Fanizile Nzuza
  • Soloists: Phello Jiyane (Soprano), Duduzile Ngomane (Alto), Vusimuzi Shabalala (Tenor), Fanizile Nzuza (Bass), Victor Makhathini (Male voice Zulu improvisations), Phumla Nkhumeleni (Female ululating and chanting) (on "Live and Let Live")
  • Musical director / vocal arranger: Bongani (Honey) Ncube
• Orphei Drängar: (on "This Is Home")
  • Conductor: Cecilia Rydinger [sv]
  • Choir arrangement: Peter Gabriel with Dom Shaw and Cecilia Rydinger

Track listing:

1. "Panopticom"         5:13

2. "The Court"         4:20

3. "Playing for Time" 6:17

4. "I/O"                         3:52

5. "Four Kinds of Horses" 6:47

6. "Road to Joy"                 5:21

7. "So Much"         4:50

8. "Olive Tree"         5:59

9. "Love Can Heal" 5:59

10. "This Is Home" 5:04

11. "And Still"         7:41

12. "Live and Let Live" 6:46

Overall Thoughts:

Twenty one years passed between Gabriel's last album of original matieral (Up) and I/O.  I/O was composed of twelve songs, and each song had two different mixes- a 'Bright Side' and a 'Dark Side'.  Taking advantage of social media, Gabriel released one song at the New Moon every month before finally releasing the album in 2023.

And it's... OK.  There's no bad songs here.  But there's nothing memorable.  I keep listening to the songs and none of the songs are sticking with me.  This album seems to speak to a lot of people, but it's eluding me.  And because I can't understand why, I can't offer an explanation.  There is no lyric or music that is having any staying power.  It's technically excellent but completely forgettable- to me.  I'd be fascinated what other people who are fans of Gabriel think of the album.

As this is the final Gabriel album, I appreciate everyone who has read these.  In the past year I've gone through the discography of two of my favorite musical artists.  I don't know if I'll continue these with another artist, but it's been fun.  Thank you all for reading.

Ranking of Peter Gabriel Albums (adding as more albums are reviewed):

1. So
2. Up
3. Peter Gabriel (Melt)
4. And I'll Scratch Yours
5. Us
6. Security
7. Peter Gabriel (Car)
8. Scratch My Back
9. I/O
10. Peter Gabriel (Scratch)

Top 10 Peter Gabriel Songs (adding as more albums are reviewed):

1. "In Your Eyes", So
2. "Don't Give Up", So
3. "Mercy Street", So
4. "Red Rain", So
5. "Solsbury Hill", Peter Gabriel (Car)
6. "Darkness", Up
7. "That Voice Again", So
8. "Sky Blue", Up
9. "Only Us", Us
10. "Wallflower", Security

NBA Predictions 2024-2025

Last year, I correctly predicted the Boston Celtics to win the NBA Title.  Let's see how this year goes!

Eastern Conference:

1.       New York

2.       Boston

3.       Cleveland

4.       Orlando

5.       Indiana

6.       Milwaukee

7.       Philadelphia

8.       Miami

9.       Atlanta

10.     Detroit

11.     Chicago

12.     Charlotte

13.     Toronto

14.     Brooklyn

15.     Washington 

Playoffs:

·      (play-ins):   Philadelphia over Miami; Detroit over Atlanta; Miami over Detroit

·      New York over Philadelphia; Boston over Miami; Cleveland over Milwaukee; Orlando over Indiana

·      New York over Orlando; Boston over Cleveland

·      Boston over New York

Western Conference:

1.       Oklahoma City

2.       Minnesota

3.       Dallas

4.       New Orleans

5.       Denver

6.       Sacramento

7.       Phoenix

8.       Memphis

9.       Houston

10.     San Antonio

11.     LA Lakers

12.     Golden State

13.     LA Clippers

14.     Utah

15.     Portland

Playoffs:

·     (play-ins):  Phoenix over Memphis; Houston over San Antonio; Houston over Memphis

·     Oklahoma City over Houston; Minnesota over Phoenix; Dallas over Sacramento; Denver over New        Orleans

·     Oklahoma City over Denver; Minnesota over Dallas  

·     Minnesota over Oklahoma City

More notes:

·     The East- I think Philadelphia and Milwaukee are old and so top-heavy that a couple of nagging injuries could cripple either team.  Especially with younger teams on the rise in the East.  

-    I really think New York has a great team; I also think they have a coach who burns out their players, which will hurt them in the playoffs

·     I'm a Cleveland Cavaliers fans, and really want to argue they are better than Boston.  But at the moment, if everyone is relatively healthy, I can't.  Boston wins the East

         

·     The West will be a dogfight.  I'm going against the older teams (Lakers, Phoenix, Golden State) and favoring the younger teams (New Orleans, Houston, Minnesota)

·     OKC will have the best record, and will be favored.  But I like Minnesota, and I think the KAT trade willr eally help the team.

·     MVP?  The past five years have been centers or power forwards; this year, it's a guard.  I'm in on Anthony Edwards

-     ROY?  No idea- Reed Shepherd?

-     Lottery?  Lately, the top franchise picks goes to the West.  Absent any other reason, I'll argue that Cooper Flag ends up in Utah.  

·     Finals?  Boston's back for a second year.  But the player Anthony Edwards reminds me most if Dwayne Wade.  And I really like their team- it has depth, and they have experience.  And running it back to the finals twice is tough.  

      Minnesota in 6.