Eating the seed oil

Below is a chart that, in retrospect, I really wish I had included in my posts about yearly economic markers.  It's a chart showing the US Strategic Oil Reserves:

Today, since October of 2022 we have been below 400,000 thousand barrels (occasionally buying up enough oil to get to 415,000.  Before 2022, you have to go back to 1984 to get below 400,000 barrels.

The purpose of the Strategic Oil Reserves if to prevent another Oil Embargo like the OPEC Oil Crisis of 1973-4.  It's the nation's emergency energy fund if a crisis cuts off our supply of oil.

And we've been tapping into it- we're currently about 357,000 thousand barrels of oil.

Now, we're tapping into it before the gas prices are high, because of the War with Iran.  Iran has cut off the Strait of Hormuz, which is preventing oil (and other supplies) from the Middle East to the rest of the world.  The prices are rising, and gas prices going higher is always a politics problem.  So the solution is to tap into the reserves to give the country a greater supply of oil, which lowers the price of gas and reduces the political pressure.

The problem is threefold.

1)  This does nothing to solve the source of the problem

2)  We should replace the barrels to bring back the Reservers.  In theory, this will take place in the future when oil is cheaper.  But what if the price of oil doesn't drop anytime soon?  

3)  The key problem.  Once we use these reserves, until they are replaced, we cannot use them again.  So it's causing a temporary fix- but at some point, we'll stop tapping into reserves (or run out).  At that point, the prices will jump, and if there is another crisis, we won't have the reserves to use.

This isn't a party problem- Biden tapped the reserves for millions of barrels of oil because of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and he didn't come close to replenshing the reserves when he left office.  It's the equivalent of throwing an expensive party and sticking the next guy with the bill.  And Trump not only hasn't restored the oil, he's tapping it even further.

Much like us National Debt, we're making a mess and demanding our children clean it up.  

Three cheers for the optimists

Last night, the TV show "60 Minutes" had an article about the planet being in the middle of an extinction crisis.  And they interviewed, in the article... Paul Ehrlich

Paul Ehrlich is famous, in 1968, for writing 'The Population Bomb', a book famous for predicting mass starvation in the 1970s.  Which turned out to be wrong.  He also predicted that the United Kingdom would not exist by the year 2000, that all important sea life would be extinct by 1980... Pretty much every prediction Ehrlich made in his book was wrong.  Hell, Economist Julian Simon made a wager with Ehrlich about resources getting scarcer... and won the bet.

8,000,000,000 strong... and growing.

Basically, Ehrlich is a doomsayer who predicted the end of mankind over 50 years ago, was proven wrong time and again... and is still considered an expert who gets interviewed on tv.  Maybe this time, the Apocalypse will really happen.  

But... here's the thing.  The world's getting better.  Starvation-level poverty is dropping.  We are taking steps to creating a carbon-free energy resource that is nearly limitless.  We're even using gene editing tools to treat leukaemia.  

Are there still problems and concerns?  Absolutely... there always are.  But looking objectively, there's no reason for this 'The World is Coming to an End' bullshit panic that 60 minutes seems to be embracing.  I can't believe anyone takes Ehrlich seriously.  I'd have thought people would ignore him, and I would have been wrong.

But not as wrong as Ehrlich.

Long- term solution about Russia

Right as I type this, Russia is invading Ukraine.  The world is condemning the actions of Russia, and invoking sanctions.  I have no idea if these sanctions will be sufficient to stop the invasion, though I doubt it.  If the threat of sanctions wouldn't prevent the invasion, the sanctions themselves probably won't cause them to back out now.

I don't know how this will end, and I fear it will be like Germany with the Sudetenland; just the next step of Russia conquering their neighboring nations.  It took a World War to stop Germany.  I don't know what it will take to stop Russia.  

But I do have one suggestion, based on this chart:

This shows Russia's exports- and more than half of it comes from Oil.  Almost 2/3rds comes from energy (Oil, Gas, Coal).

The world needs energy to function.  Russia knows this- so as long as the rest of the world continues to buy energy from Russia, they know the rest of the world won't inflict the economic pain that would stop them from invading.

So change the equation- our priority should be energy independence.  Not just for the US, but for Europe, for India, for Japan, for North and South America- for every free nation on Earth.

When I say 'energy independence', that is different from renewable energy.  I am in favor of all hands on deck.  Solar and Wind energy have their place, but they can't replace oil.  

It also includes spending money on researching fusion power.

It also includes building Thorium reactors

It also includes domestic oil sources- even drilling in Alaska or offshore.  

It also includes fracking.

Every MW of energy created by a free nation is one that isn't bought from Russia and giving money to the Oligarchs

It will be expensive.  The right will complain about the costs.  The left will complain about the need for nuclear and fracking.  

If you are serious about stopping Russia, the way to do it now is to bankrupt them.  

Because the alternative will cost blood.