2018 Predictions

Let's do this!

• Democrats take the House but not the Senate (too many seats are in red states)
• Trump remains Trump- every other week a stupid and outrageous self-inflicted wound that causes outrage… until the next stupid and outrageous self-inflicted wound. 
• Trump not primaried on the Right- in the end, the party falls in line
• The left becomes a huge free-for-all with regards to getting in position for 2020, each one trying to outdo the other. 
• One name among the Democrats- Al Franken.  Franken finally steps out of office and uses his freedom to constantly attack Trump, being a zealot about harassment (“I screwed up- I apologized, I stepped away to learn, and I will use my Presidency to make amends”).  He will be the lightning rod among Democrats going into the Presidential campaign 

Onto non-political predictions:

• Houston shocks Golden State in the Western conference finals, 4 games to 3.  Golden State looks past Houston to a rematch with Houston, and Houston wears them down.  Houston/Cleveland goes 7 games, but Cleveland’s depth is too much
• LeBron does leave Cleveland- for New York.  The Cavaliers break up, while LeBron forms a new superteam around Porzingis
• The Yankees are the talk of baseball, as Stanton his 67 home runs… but they still come up short in the playoffs.  Houston-Cleveland are in the ALCS, and Houston prevails… but this time they lose to the Dodgers in the World Series
• The Browns take Sam Darnold and Minkah Fitzpatrick with their two draft picks. 
• The AFC title game is Pittsburgh—New England, with New England winning.  The NFC title game is Philadelphia-Minnesota, and Minnesota Wins… then shocks New England to win the Super Bowl (which is in Minnesota)
• The Infinity War is the first major stumble among the Marvel Movies- it’s a case of ‘too much’.  It still does great numbers, but that’s when everyone sees the Superhero movie trend has peaked
• The cascade of people outed as harassers will continue, as people will be called out for behavior of the last 30 years.

And personal prediction:

·        My ultimate goal is 190 pounds- I may not reach it, but I will be under 200 at some point of 2018

Closing Out 2017

2017.... It was a Year.

Looking back, the biggest story was the explosion of sexual harassment cases- Harvey Weinstein, Kevin Spacey, Roy Moore, Al Franken, Matt Lauer.  The dam broke- good.  Maybe this time a better standard can be held for the future. 

It was also the year I gave up on politics.  There are two parties in the USA, and their defining characteristic is how much they despise people who belong to the other party.  Donald Trump is pretty much who we thought he was- a narcissist who lives to see his name in lights and has no shame or doubts about his own awesomeness.  In today's political environment, that behavior is rewarded.  I'm not asking that the two sides stop fighting.  I just wish they actually fought over ideas instead of personalities. 

Sports?  The Cavaliers are a great team that ran into a greater team in the Warriors.  The Indians had a great season- I would love them to win one title before their core gets old, but it's a fun team to watch.  And the Browns were awful and pathetic- for the sake of the city, I would love them to get better.

On a personal level... we lost our cat Pippin this November.  We still have two cats, but losing the big guy hurt.  I lost ~25 pounds and hope to lost another 20 or so to get down to 190 this year.  Work is fine, and we still perform at Dinner Detective. 

May 2018 bring everyone peace and happiness.

RIP Pippin

Last year, Katie and I lost our cat Smokey.  Tonight, we lost our second cat, Pippin.  I've written about him before- he came to us in 2011.

He was the most dog-like cat I have ever met.  Friendly to everyone, always willing to come up and bonk his head against our leg.  Smokey hated him- but I think Smokey hated every other animal except Katie and (somewhat) me.  After Smokey passed away we picked up two new kittens, and Pippin (for the most part) got along great with Dashiell and Mystery.

We must have had a half dozen nicknames for Pippin- everything from "Golden Yellow Spider Monkey" to "Hipster Pipster" to "Bonk Shu".  He loved everyone, and he was loved.

I miss you, Pip.

Double Down, Sashi Brown!

The Cleveland Browns are 0-10.  They look horrible.  DeShone Kizer has thrown 14 interceptions and only 5 touchdowns, and has been benched twice.  Their analytics method has caused them to pass on Carson Wentz and DeShaun Watson- the former looking like a great QB in the making for the Philadelphia Eagles, while Watson looked fantastic until he was injured.  

The Browns seem like a mortal lock to finish 0-16 and with the #1 pick in the draft (along with the Texans, pick, like around #10).  There's a bunch of QBs in this draft that are likely to go in the first round- Sam Darnold of USC (if he doesn't stay in school another year), Josh Rosen of UCLA, Lamar Jackson of Louisville, Josh Allen of Wyoming, and Baker Mayfield of Oklahoma.  

Surely, the Browns should abandon this analytic approach, take a QB with the #1 pick.  Right?

My advice for Sashi Brown (the VP of the Browns)- don't draft a QB.  Double down on your method.

Which, of course, sounds insane.  Why double down on something that has led you to 0-16?  

Here's my reasons:

1)  Every single QB in the top tier has flaws.  Rosen supposedly isn't like by his teammates.  Darnold has not been impressive and may stay at USC another year.  Jackson has accuracy issues.  Allen is a project, as is Mayfield.  If you're grabbing a QB #1, that means that you think he's the best QB in the class- and none of them are standing out.

2)  The Browns do have alternatives to drafting a QB #1.  They could try to get a free agent (Kirk Cousins is on the market).  They could grab a veteran QB like Josh McCown (who has led the Jets to a 4-6 record to a team that was supposedly as bad as the Browns).  Or...

3)  They have a young QB- Kizer.  Yes, he's looked bad.  He also has had no wide receivers, a poor running game... and he's young.  Look at the improvement Jared Goff had last year.  Head Coach Hue Jackson is supposed to be a quarterback guru- let's put him to the test.

So what do you do instead?

4)  Grab Saquon Barkley with the #1 pick.  He's a RB and considered the best 'Sure Thing' in the draft.  

5)  With the Texans pick, grab one of the top two WR (Calvin Ridley or Courtland Sutton).  If both of them fail to make it, grab an offensive lineman or a defensive back.  But ideally, one of them should be available.

With that, you have Kizer with a year's NFL experience under his belt, a new RB, a new WR, Corey Coleman and Josh Gordon back healthy, and Joe Thomas back in the lineup.  

I think you have a better chance turning Kizer into a good NFL Quarterback than drafting a QB and starting over.

Do I expect them to do so?  No- I expect them to grab one of the QBs, start over, and then spend next year under a cloud of "Well, we should have grabbed (player X) or (player Y) or (Players A, B, C) instead."

Look- if Sashi Brown makes it to the draft, he only gets one more chance.  If you really think rookie QBs are overrated (and the way you traded down to avoid drafting Wentz and Watson, you do), then reversing course now is tantamount to admitting the last two years were horrifically wrong.  Stick to your guns.  It's not like you'll get another chance if you lead the Browns to a 3-13 season the next year.  Double down.  

Top 10 albums on a deserted island

And the music challenge was made- list ten albums you'd want on a deserted island.  No "Greatest Hits" allowed.

I muddled this in my mind for a week before making my selections.  In no particular order:

* Pink Floyd- "Wish You Were Here"
* Tom Petty & the Heartbreakers- "Damn the Torpedoes"
* SJ Tucker- "Wonders"
* The Connells- "One Simple Word"
* Daft Punk- "Random Access Memories"
* Soundtrack to "Final Fantasy VIII"
* Animal Logic- "Animal Logic"
* Peter Gabriel- "So"
* Bruce Hornsby & the Range- "Scenes from the Southside"
* Rush, "Moving Pictures"


Damn- And I'm sure I could have gone to 20 easily.

NBA Predictions 2017-2018

Eastern Conference:

1.     Cleveland

2.     Boston

3.     Toronto

4.     Washington

5.     Milwaukee

6.     Charlotte

7.     Philadelphia

8.     Detroit

9.     Miami

10.   New York

11.   Indiana

12.   Atlanta

13.   Brooklyn

14.   Chicago

15.   Orlando

Playoffs:

•             Cleveland over Detroit, Boston over Philadelphia, Toronto over Charlotte, Milwaukee over Washington

•             Cleveland over Milwaukee, Boston over Toronto

•             Cleveland over Boston.  This will be a war, and don't be surprised if there are suspensions in this game

Western Conference:

1.     Golden State

2.     San Antonio

3.     Houston

4.     Oklahoma City

5.     Utah

6.     Minnesota

7.     Denver

8.     Portland

9.     New Orleans

10.   Memphis

11.   Sacramento

12.   LA Clippers

13.   LA Lakers

14.   Dallas   

15.   Phoenix

Playoffs:

•             Golden State over Portland, San Antonio over Denver, Houston over Minnesota, Utah over OKC

•             Golden State over Utah, Houston over San Antonio

•             Golden State over Houston

More notes:

•             MVP?  I think this might be one of those years that there are six viable candidates.  I have a hard time seeing Harden or Westbrook repeating their numbers.  The young guys are still a year or two away.  I'll go with LeBron, because he'll always be a contender- but we might be arguing Leonard, Embiid, or even Rudy Gorbert

•             Cleveland/Boston is going to be an ugly bloodbath this year.  Between IT's anger at Aigne and Kyrie's statements about Cleveland, I think these two franchises will be hating each other.  

•             Here's the thing about Golden State; on paper, they should win 70+ games.  The core has been together for a year, they are all still young, no one has been able to figure them out.

But they've also been incredibly lucky in terms of injuries.  They haven't had an injury that took one of their core players out for a month during the playoffs (see what happened to Kawhi last year).  Eventually, that luck will run out- and they sacrificed their depth to sign Durant.

If I had to bet on one team winning the NBA finals, it's Golden State.  But Golden State vs. the field?  

I think someone beats them this year.  Officially, I'll put down Cleveland winning the title in 7 games.  But if you told me that Golden State would be at 100% health, I'll be on the Warriors repeating.  

MLB Playoff and Awards Predictions

American League:

Minnesota Twins over New York Yankees (Wild Card)
Houston Astros over Boston Red Sox in 4 games
Cleveland Indians over Minnesota Twins in 4 games
Cleveland Indians over Houston Astros in 7 games

National League:
Colorado Rockies over Arizona Diamondbacks (Wild Card)
Washington Nationals over Chicago Cubs in 5 games
Los Angeles Dodgers over  Colorado Rockies in 3 games
Washington Nationals over Los Angeles Dodgers in 6 games

World Series:
Cleveland Indians over Washington Nationals in 6 games

AL Awards:
MVP:  Jose Altuve, Houston Astros
Cy Young:  Corey Kluber, Cleveland Indians
Rookie of the Year:  Aaron Judge, New York Yankees
Manager of the Year:  Paul Molitor, Minnesota Twins

NL Awards:
MVP:  Giancarlo Stanton, Miami Marlins
Cy Young:  Max Scherzer, Washington Nationals
Rookie of the Year:  Cody Bellinger, Los Angeles Dodgers
Manager of the Year:  Dave Roberts, Los Angeles Dodgers