2020: The Year in Review

My summary of 2020:  Kill it with fire.

I've had years that were for me personally- one of my closest friends dying suddenly in her 40's.  The next year, one of my oldest childhood friends passed away.  

The world has had recent years that we were in war and facing terrorism and economic collapse that seemed insurountable.  I can't say that 2020 has been the worst year since I've been alive.  But 2020 has certainly felt like the most depressing year since I've been alive.

COVID struck, killing over 300,000 Americans and over 1.8 million people so far.  My wife and I both caught COVID in October, but fortunately recovered.  

The world is making process on vaccines, and with some luck and skill, the world might be vaccinated from COVID to start getting back to 'normal'.  I put that in quotes because even when COVID abates, so much of our lives will be different from it was from 2019.  Businesses- and entire industries- that died because they couldn't get customers won't be coming back.  Many people (myself included) worked from home, and many of those people will continue to do so.  Epidemics like the 1918 flu and the Black Death changes the world and society, and COVID will also do so- permanently.

We'll adapt to the changes- we always do.  COVID is why 2020 was tragic.  But it wasn't why 2020 was depressing.

In the past, when disaster struck, we as a people bonded together.  The attacks on 9/11 were awful, but we as a country bonded together.  This year, we came across a new challenge- and broke apart.

The country is split between two teams and their defining characteristic is how much they despise the other team.

I always thought politics was like the Yankees-Red Sox rivalry... yeah, you 'hated' the other team.  But when there was a real problem, you ignored your rivalry.  That didn't happen this time.  

And I fear it will continue.  We've elected a new President, and part of me hopes that as Trump recedes in the eyes of everyone, this Culture War will lessen.  But I fear it won't- and I don't know what direction it will go in now.

And it just is exhausting.

Be well, everyone.  I'll try to be more optimistic next time.

Star Wars Thought: The wrong alliance

Finished season 2 of The Mandalorian (Short review-  it's awesome.  Longer review- it expanded the Star Wars Universe and managed to show characters who were shades of grey without going away from the themes of the Universe.  And the characters and stories were inrcredible.  Jon Favreau and Dave Filono are on the short list of creators I will trust with just about any franchise).

One thing I kept noticing- the Empire kept advocating 'Order'.  "Bringing Order to the Galaxy"- that was their justification for waging war on the Republic.  That's what the Empire believed- order over chaos.  Which makes sense.  

But that's not what the Sith believe.  The Sith believe that passion creates strength creates power creates victory (courtesy of Knights of the Old Republic 2).  The Sith don't care about Order, or Discipline... if anything, they advocate the exact opposite of it.

So why are they always allies?

For the original trilogy, and the prequels, the answer is- Emporer Palpatine.  Palpatine viewed the Empire and the Sith as tools to use for his cult of personality.  He told the Empire that he wanted to bring Order to the Universe, and he told Vader to embrace his feelings.  Vader thought he was using the Empire, the Empire thought they were using Vader- and both were being used by the Emporer.

But now that the Emperor is dead?  There's no reason for them to be working together.  The Mandalorian gets around this by not having any Sith.  Their opponents are only the Empire.

But the Sequels (cue my rant about the failure that was the sequels)... they just put the First Order and Kylo Ren together.  And since Ren was the far more interesting character... really, the First Order was nothing more than scrubs for the heroes to level up on until they were ready to face Ren.

And that's a missed opportunity, in my mind.

What if the overall arc of the sequels had been a War between the First Order and the Sith?  Between Order and Chaos?  

It would have taken the sequels in a new direction instead of a rehash.

But wouldn't that have put the Republic- the heroes- on the sidelines?

Not necessarily.  The first movie could have had them acting as heroes trying to save the worlds caught in the crossfire of the Empire-Sith war.  The second movie shows Rey's training (the rebirth of the Jedi), as the Sith (Kylo Ren and his Knights) decimate the Empire...

... which forces the Empire to turn to the Republic for an alliance.

Because the Empire is about Order.  The Sith is about Passion.  The Republic is about Balance and Compassion.  

Which takes the Star Wars Universe to a different path and many more interesting stories.

NBA 2020-2021 Predictions

I took the year off last year because of NBA's stance supporting China.  I'm back this year.

Eastern Conference:

1.       Milwaukee

2.       Miami

3.       Toronto

4.       Boston

5.       Philadelphia

6.       Washington

7.       Brooklyn

8.       Atlanta

9.       Indiana

10.     Orlando

11.     Chicago

12.     Cleveland

13.     Detroit

14.     Charlotte

15.     New York

Playoffs:

·         Milwaukee over Atlanta, Miami over Brooklyn, Toronto over Washington, Philadelphia over Boston

·         Milwaukee over Philadelphia, Miami over Toronto

·         Milwaukee over Miami

Western Conference:

1.       LA Lakers

2.       LA Clippers

3.       Denver

4.       Dallas

5.       Utah

6.       Portland

7.       Phoenix

8.       Sacramento

9.       New Orleans

10.     Memphis

11.     Minnesota

12.     San Antonio

13.     Houston

14.     Golden State

15.     Oklahoma City

Playoffs:

·         Lakers over Sacramento, Phoenix over Clippers, Denver over Portland, Utah over Dallas

·         Lakers over Utah, Denver over Phoenix

·         Denver over Lakers

More notes:

·         The East is more dangerous than people realize.  Miami is dangerous, and Toronto is deep.  But I think this is Giannis' year.  No one in the East has an answer for him

·         The Lakers are the best team in the West... but they are still dependent on two superstars, and now on very short rest.  The Clippers are the deepest team, which is why I'm high on them in the regular season... but I think they are the team most likely to stumble in the playoffs.  I think Denver is sick of being ignored and may go on a rampage.

·         MVP?  The general preseason consensus is Luka Doncic.  If Dallas plays well, he will win

·         ROY?  Would love it to be Isaac Okoro.  But I think Tyrese Haliburton might have the easiest path.

·         Finals?  Two teams desperate to overcome their past.  Denver is deep... but Milwaukee has Giannis.  The Greek Freak wins his first title, 4 games to 2

·         James Harden is traded, but not until he's sunk Houston's season.  Don't know where he's going to

·       I'm very high on Washington (Westbrook and Beal are a great combination, and they have depth), and very low on Brooklyn (Durant is awesome- but if there ever was a team that looked great on paper that lacked the teamwork, it's them)

Cleveland Cavaliers- 2020-21 NBA Season preview

Tonight, the Cleveland Cavaliers play their first preseason game since March 10, 2020.  It's good to see them back.

They weren't a great team last year, and they most likely won't be a great team this year.  They are too young in the backcourt, they still need to learn to defend, their best player is injury-prone... there's a reason they only won 19 games last year.  

It's frustrating being a fan of a small market team in the NBA.  The best players only want to play for major markets, leading to a NBA that has 10 great teams and 20 versions of the Washington Generals.  And when a small market team does develope a great player, there's a countdown until that player leaves via free agency.  It's frustrating.

But at this point in the team's progress, that's not an issue.  Instead, we're seeing the journey and hoping this team can come together and improve.

They have players that can step forward- Sexton, Garland, Okoro, Windler, KPJ.  Drummond is an excellent player who is, unfortuantely, playing in an era that works against his skillset.  Love, when healthy, can still play well.

But I think the single most important person for the Cavaliers next year is J.B. Bickerstaff.  If Sexton or Garland step up, the team will do well.  But if Bickerstaff coaches these players well- defines their roles and puts them in a place where they can succeed- then all of the young players can improve.  It may not show in the standings this year, but it will show eventually.

The win total this year will not be fun.  But the journey might be.  

NBA 2020 Draft booking

 

My Crazy Dream Booking:  Top 4 go Edwards-Wiseman-Okongwu-Toppin.  Cavs trade #5 to the Knicks for #8 and a (top 10 protected) first rounder in 2021.  Knicks grab Ball at #5.  Hawks grab Avjadi at 6, Detroit grabs Hayes at 7, and the Cavs grab Isaac Okoro or Devin Vassell at #8.

What Should Happen: Top 4 go Edwards-Wiseman-Ball-Hayes.  Cavs grab Deni Avjadi at #5

What Will Happen: Top 4 are Edwards-Wiseman-Ball-Avjadi.  Cleveland takes Isaac Okoro at #5

What I’m Terrified Will Happen: Top 4 are Edwards-Wiseman-Ball-Avjadi. Cleveland takes Toppin at #5 (Toppin has his advantages.  But he will be the third top draft pick in a row with defensive issues.  I don't see that helping the Cavs)

If I Was Booking This And I Hated You: Cavs take Toppin, overpay to re-sign Thompson, and have five front court players and no defensive wings.  

The bullet the US Dodged... and the remaining bullet

 The definition of fascism, courtesy of Merriam-Webster:

"a political philosophy, movement, or regime (such as that of the Fascisti) that exalts nation and often race above the individual and that stands for a centralized autocratic government headed by a dictatorial leader, severe economic and social regimentation, and forcible suppression of opposition"

In some ways, Trump has been a fascist.  He demonizes his opponents to the point of calling for their suppression (He's twice led chants of "Lock Her Up ", for two different political opponents, four years apart).  He's constantly attacking the media.  He's questioning the electoral process before the votes have even been counted.

But in many key ways, Trump is not a fascist.  He hasn't made a power grab.  And a pandemic is a perfect storm to make such a power grab.  Trump could have closed the borders, killed all trade with China, and force the states to accept whatever safety measures the federal government deemed were necessary on the argument that it was to protect the nation... and the nation would have gone along with it. 

Why didn't he?  My own pet theory... Trump doesn't want power.  He wants adulation. He wants people to act subordinate to him, at all times, under all conditions.  And that's all he wants.

So, assuming he'll lose in November, he'll use the pulpit to clain he was robbed, that he was a great President, that outside forces were out to get him, that he was cheated... and then he'll leave.  He doesn't want the power of the Presidency.  He wants the aura of the Presidency.

So he'll leave, and we'll have escaped the Trump Presidency.  We could have gone fascist, and we didn't.  The country dodged a bullet.

But...

I don't think Biden's a fascist by any means (in fact, I think he is much more Conservative than Trump- certainly more respectful of traditions and the Constitution).  But I think the Trump Presidency revealed that there are a lot of people who, if they had been in Trump's place, would have pushed the US to a fascist state in their desire to improve it.  

(And yes, I think it's both sides.  If you think the Pandemic should explain why the President should grant Medicare for All by fiat, bypassing Congress- that's fascist and tyrannical)

The Trump Presidency has revealed how much contempt the two sides have for each other- and how little respect they have for the other side.

Politics is about reaching compromise between groups with different agendas.  It involves trading, making deals, and working within the system.  If your only plan is to destroy the opposition so you can implement your programs unimpeded... that's not politics.  That's war.

With Trump, we peered down the abyss of fascism.  My fear is that, instead of backing away, someone will encourage the country to jump.

NBA Finals 2020

Congrats to the Lakers for winning the NBA title.  And a great showing by the Miami Heat (though I can't stand the franchise, I concede their skill as a great team)

With his fourth NBA Title, The LeBron/Jordan GOAT battle is back... a few thoughts:

1) I still think it's a three way battle, with Bill Russell (11 championships) as a viable contender

2) Jordan's major advantage... 6-0. He never lost. And it never felt like he was in serious danger of losing.

3) LeBron's advantage... he's won as the best player on three completely differently rosters, with different coaches. Jordan always has the same core.

4) I still believe LeBron faced tougher competition in the finals than Jordan did. Jordan never faced anyone like the 2013-2014 Spurs or the 2015-2018 Warriors

Conceding my biases.... I think this title gives LeBron the edge.

My top 10 all time basketball rankings
1) LeBron James
2) Michael Jordan
3) Bill Russell
4) Tim Duncan
5) Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
6) Magic Johnson
7) Larry Bird
8) Kobe Bryant
9) Hakeem Olajuwon
10) Jerry West

(and yes, Wilt isn't on the list)