Goodbye, X

 I left 'X' (the former Twitter) today.  Deactivated my account permanently.  I'd been on the site since... 2009?  Something like that.

Goodbye

Mainly, I was following the Marie Kondo question- "Does this bring joy?"- and more and more, the answer was a resounding 'no'.  The original concept of Twitter- a place where anyone could post a short message- was great.  People could put up short messages, break news, come up with witty quips.  I followed a lot of people on the site; not only friends, but whoever was in a field that interested me; poker players, professional wrestlers, chefs (I picked up a ton of recipes).  

Was there politics?  Absolutely- I followed several people, not only people who I agreed with (Jonah Goldberg, Megan McArdle), but people I disagreed with (Matthew Yglesias) to see their opinion.  

But over time, the site got more and more toxic.  And yes, part of the blame belongs to Elon Musk- a man who has some brains and a ton of resources and seems to be using them to be a player in a culture war.  But he just greased the skids- this has been coming for a long time.

Social media- Twitter, Facebook, TikTok, etc- has been a powerful tool.  It's given everyone access to a megaphone that can be heard across the planet.  But it's a tool that we've abused, and one that I don't think we are ready to handle properly.  The rise of social media has been accompanied by a rise of depression, and we as a species are far more toxic to each other than we were 30 years ago.  

I would have guessed a tool that would let us see the insights of everyone on the planet would help us understand each other.  On this, I've been proven wrong so far.

Much like the Supercomputer in Wargames, I've realized that social media is a strange game, and the only winning move is not to play.  So I've withdrawn from the world's megaphone.  I don't expect to ever be back.

Going Infinite: Thoughts about SBF, Crypto, and the Cult of Personality

 I have finished Going Infinite, Michael Lewis' book about Sam Bankman-Fried and the Rise and Fall of FTX.  A few thoughts:

Would you give this man 15 billion dollars?

1)  Bankman-Fried has been found guilty of seven counts of fraud, and I firmly believe the evidence is correct and that he is guilty.  What I don't know is if his intention was to actually steal the money or he was just so criminally reckless with the money that it's missing or taken by other people.  The book is full of stories about how little he paid attention to any sort of guardrails to protect the financial interests of either himself or the people around him.

2)  Lewis is a great writer. (he did a better job explaining the 2008 financial crisis to me than anyone else in his book The Big Short).  He also finds Bankman-Fried a fascinating character, and paints him in a better light than most people expect.  Lewis doesn't hide the facts, but when his opinion comes out, it is more favorable on Bankman-Fried than you would expect.

3)  Bankman-Fried comes across (in my own opinion) as an idiot savant.  He's brilliant, especially at lateral thinking.  But he's also incapable of empathy, and not only believes he is smart, but that there is no point listening to other people.  At one point in the book, when he talks about how outsiders want him to bring in a CFO (Chief Financial Officer), his quote from the book:

"There's a functional religion around the CFO," said Sam.  "I'll ask them, 'Why do I need one?'  Some people cannot articulate a single thing the CFO is supposed to do.  They'll say 'keep track of the money' or 'make projections.'  I'm like, What the fuck do you think I do all day?  You think I don't know how much money we have?"

I think we see how that turned out.

4)  Here's my big question:  Why the hell did so many people give this guy so much money?  He had investors giving him 15 billion dollars.  That's $15,000,000,000.00  

I get that he's smart.  Big deal- I know lots of smart people.  I wouldn't give them my life savings.  

This isn't a Theranos situation, where the company outright lied about what they were capable of doing.  I can understand investors falling for that.  But even after reading the book, I don't understand either what his business model was supposed to be, nor why would people trust that this reckless sociopath would be the place to invest.

I admit that I'm biased- I've gone from being a skeptic of Cryptocurrency to now believing it is a complete scam.  So when a company based around Cryptocurrency is found out to be guilty of fraud, it just reinforces my beliefs.  But obviously a lot of people trusted his company- and specifically, trusted him.  Investors have decided to investor in the founder, even though they've been burned so many times before.  You'd think that people who were responsible for other people's money would expect more safeguards than invest because they think the founder is the next Steve Jobs.

Sam Bankman-Fried is an odd character; I enjoyed the book Michael Lewis wrote about him.  But I'm glad I never invested a dime in him- and I don't understand why others did.

 

NBA Predictions 2023-2024

 Eastern Conference:

1.       Boston

2.       Milwaukee

3.       Cleveland

4.       New York

5.       Philadelphia

6.       Miami 

7.       Brooklyn

8.       Orlando

9.       Atlanta

10.     Chicago

11.     Toronto

12.     Indiana

13.     Detroit

14.     Washington

15.     Charlotte 

Playoffs:

·         (play-ins):   Oralndo over Brooklyn; Atlanta over Chicago; Brooklyn over Atlanta

·         Boston over Brooklyn, Milwaukee over Orlando, Cleveland over Miami, New York over Philadelphia

·         Boston over New York, Cleveland over Milwaukee

·         Boston over Cleveland

Western Conference:

1.       Denver

2.       Phoenix

3.       LA Lakers

4.       Oklahoma City

5.       Golden State

6.       Memphis

7.       Sacramento

8.       New Orleans

9.       Minnesota

10.     Dallas

11.     LA Clippers

12.     Utah

13.     Houston

14.     Portland

15.     San Antonio

Playoffs:

·         (play-ins):   Sacramento over New Orleans, Minnesota over Dallas, Minnesota over New Orleans

·         Denver over Minnesota; Phoenix over Sacramento; Memphis over LA Lakers; Oklahoma City over Golden State

·         Oklahoma City over Denver; Phoenix over Memphis

·         Phoenix over Oklahoma City

More notes:

·     The East is weird; the top two teams shook up their roster and improved, on paper.  The only teams I really think are tanking (Charlotte and Washington) are in the East.  And Philadelphia is the team most likely to completely fall apart.  I think the teams that are the most stable (Cleveland and New York) might thrive, at least in the regular season

·     My fear for the Cavaliers is that they might be the next Utah- a great regular season team that doesn't have a playoff gear.  For this year, I have them winning two rounds (including shocking Milwaukee), but not able to voercome Boston

         

·     The West will be a dogfight.  There are eleven teams that can make a good argument.  Someone will finish in the lottery

·     There are four teams (Lakers, Clippers, Phoenix, Golden State) that are old, injury-prone, and top-heavy.  Someone is due for an awful year.  I'm picking the Clippers to fall apart, but I could see any one of these teams having a disaster of a season.

·         MVP?  The top contenders (Embiid, Jokic, Giannis) have all won the award.  I don't like Dallas enough to think Luka will win.  I'm picking Tatum

·         ROY?  Even finishing last in the West, Wembayana will impress enough to win the ROY

·         Finals?  There will be a shakeup in the playoffs, but I do think Boston is built to thrive in the postseason.  The West is a crapshoot; I'm picking Phoenix but won't bet heavily on it (they are two injuries away from the lottery; they are also a healthy year away from winning it all)

       Going with the Celtics to win the title.  After all, Boston's been without a championship long enough.

Going for Title #18

MLB Playoff Predictions 2023:

National League:

Wild Card Round:
- Phillies over Marlins, 2-0
- Brewers over Diamondbacks 2-1

Division Series:
- Braves over Phillies 3-1
- Dodgers over Brewers 3-1

Championship Series:
- Braves over Dodgers 4-2

American League:

Wild Card Round:
- Rangers over Rays, 2-1
- Blue Jays over Twins 2-1

Division Series:
- Orioles over Rangers 3-1
- Blue Jays over Astros 3-2

Championship Series:
- Orioles over Blue Jays 4-1

World Series:

- Atlanta Braves over Baltimore Orioles, 4-2

Rooting rankings:

1. Texas Rangers
2. Tampa Bay Rays
3. Toronto Blue Jays
4. Baltimore Orioles
5. Atlanta Braves
6. Minnesota Twins
7. Milwaukee Brewers
8. Philadelphia Phillies
9. Arizona Diamondbacks
10. ...
11. ...
12. Los Angeles Dodgers
13. Houston Astros
14. ...
15. ...
16. ...
17. ...
18. Florida Marlins (STILL BITTER ABOUT 1997!)

Your 2023 MLB Champions

Thoughts with Whiskey- 2023-09-14

Tonight's Drink of Choice:  Blade and Bow Bourbon.

* Just returned from a vacation to the Northwest (Portland, Seattle, Vancouver).  It's a gorgeous part of the country- mountains and ocean, not too hot nor too cold.  The scenery is outstanding.  It's expensive, and the traffic is a nightmare- but I completely understand why people love that part of the country.  I love living in Ohio- but I think that part of the country would be my second choice.

* Seattle and Vancouver were fun.  Portland... not so much.  The city has fallen badly since the last time I went there (over 10 years ago).  It's an example of The Broken Window Theory- visible signs of crime and disorder lead to worse conditions.  All three cities had grafitti- only Portland looked (and felt) dirty.  All three cities had homeless people- Portland was the only one of the three that felt unsafe.  

*  But Oregon itself?  Fantastic!

Oregon is beautiful

* The GOP is opening an inquiry to look at Impeaching President Biden:  Of course they are. 

Here's the thing- Biden did do something wrong.  The evidence is clear that Hunter Biden allowed himself to be paid millions of dollars by Burisma, because they believed that having Hunter meant access to (then Vice-President) Joe Biden.  It was an obvious conflict of interest, and Joe Biden should have been much more forceful in vowing that there would be no undue influence.  

Was it wrong?  Absolutely.  Is it impeachable?  Anything is impeachable if you get enough votes.  But I don't think most voters would say Biden should be removed from office over it.

Here's the dilemma- Constitutionally, Impeaching is the only way Congress has to condemn bad behavior from the President.  When your only tool is a hammer, everything looks like a nail.  When your only tool is Impeachment- everything looks impeachable.  We're going to see a lot more Impeachment hearings in the future unless this gets changed- no matter who the President is.

So we'll go through this hearing, taking up our time, when what Congress needs is some partial measure- a declaration of condemning the President's behavior- that could be argued, voted on, and moved on.  

* Football season has started, and for the first time in almost a decade, I'm in a fantasy football league.  I sat down the wrong QB, but somehow managed to win the game.  Don't ask me how.  

* I do feel bad for fans of the New York Jets.  They went all in on winning this year, and now their season is over when Aaron Rodgers tore his ACL.  I root for Buffalo (and how the hell did they lose that game?), and I felt bad for the Jets.

NFL Predictions 2023-2024

My main theories going into these predictions:

1. Good franchises find ways to win games they should not
2. Bad franchises find ways to lose games they should not
3. Once a franchise is good or bad, expect them to stay that way until proven otherwise

My guess as the Super Bowl LVIII Champions

NFC

East:

Philadelphia 12-5

Dallas 11-6 (Wild Card)

NY Giants 9-8 (Wild Card)

Washington 7-10

Notes:  by far the best divison in the NFC

North:
Detroit 10-7

Minnesota 9-8
Green Bay 7-10

Chicago 5-12

South:
Atlanta 10-7 

Carolina 8-9

New Orleans 7-10

Tampa Bay 5-12

West:
San Francisco 13-4 

Seattle 12-5 (Wild Card)

Los Angeles Rams 5-12
Arizona 2-15 

Playoffs:

Philadelphia over NY Giants

Seattle over Atlanta

Dallas over Detroit

San Francisco over Dallas

Philadelphia over Seattle

Philadelphia over San Francisco



AFC

East:
Buffalo 11-6

Miami 10-7

New England 9-8 
NY Jets 7-10

Note:  ANother tough division- really, any team could finish above .500

North:

Baltimore 11-6

Pittsburgh 11-6 (Wild Card)

Cincinnati 10-7 (Wild Card)

Cleveland 6-11

Note:  Toughest division in the AFC.  A three-way dogfight for the division crown.

South:
Jacksonville 11-6

Tennessee 8-9

Indianapolis 8-9

Houston 4-13

West:

Kansas City 11-6
Los Angeles Chargers 10-7  (Wild Card)
Las Vegas 7-10

Denver 5-12

Playoffs:
Jacksonville over Cincinnati

Buffalo over Pittsburgh

Los Angeles Chargers over Baltimore

Kansas City over Los Angeles Chargers

Buffalo over Jacksonville

Buffalo over Kansas City

Note:  Honestly, any team here could be in the NFC Championship game


Super Bowl: Buffalo 36, Philadelphia 31

2024 election kickoff

A few random thoughts as the GOP had their first primary debate in Milwaukee, kicking off the 2024 Presidential season:

Let the games begin...

1)  The skillset to be elected to a national office and the skillset to actually govern well once elected barely overlap, and seem to be growing further apart over time.  Being entertaining, clever with improv quips, and being able to raise money doesn't really help that much once you've actually won the office.  

2)  The GOP candidates keep acting like there will be an event- an indictment, a health issue, something- that removes former President Trump from the field.  That way, they can appeal to his voters without actually attacking him.

Maybe it's a smart strategy- but I doubt it.  People have been looking for something to cause voters to drop Trump for seven years.  

My question to all of the other candidates- why should the people who voted for Trump in the past vote for you over Trump instead?  What is your case to them?  

Because right not, ignoring Trump- or worse, sucking up to him- is a very bad look for all of you.

3)  I feel bad for Mike Pence.  Remember, the January 6th mob wasn't chanting to hang Joe Biden; they were chanting 'Hang Mike Pence'.  He did the right thing on January 6th and avoided plunging the country into a Constitution Crisis.  As he reward, a mob tried to kill him, his own president backed the mob, and he's despised by both parties.  

He's not my choice for President- I don't agree with him on much.  But I honestly believe he deserves a medal and heroic commendation.

4)  I remain a fan of Nikki Haley.  I don't agree with her on everything, but I think she is more capable of running the country than any of the alternatives.  I think she could win the general election.  But I don't know if the GOP primary voters are interested- she's currently 3rd in polling, but 30 points behind Trump.  

5)  As for the Democrats?  I think Biden's done a very good job- he's reduced unemployment without causing a recession, he's supported the Ukraine without getting us involved in the war.  But he'll be 81 in November, I don't know if he can handle four more years, and I don't have any reason to think that VP Harris is capable of being a good President.  I'll vote for Biden over Trump.  Any other GOP candidate, and my vote is gettable.