MLB 2023 Offseason

Major League Baseball has picked a direction and doubled down on it this offseason.

Look at the free agent signings this winter:

- Shohei Ohtani signed with the Dodgers for a ten year contract with $700 million

- Yoshinobu Yamamoto also signed with the Dodgers for a 12 year contract worth $325 million

- Aaron Nola signed a 7 year contract with $172 million, but for the Philadelphia Phillies

The $700,000,000.00 man

So the 2024 baseball salaries  have six teams with a payroll of over $194 million... and seven teams with a payroll of under $71 million.  The payroll disparity between the teams with the highest salaries and the lowest salaries have never been higher.

Baseball could do something about this- put in a salary cap and floor, change the free agent structure, create revenue sharing on the local tv contracts.  It might be difficult getting it past the Union, but it's feasible.  Baseball has chosen not to do so.  They want the biggest markets to spend as much as possible.

To avoid having the fans of the smaller markets (with lower payrolls) give up entirely, they've increased the number of teams in the playoffs- so there's a chance the small market teams like Tampa or Kansas City could make the playoffs and get hot.  The larger markets- the Yankees and the Dodgers- will be in the playoffs almost every year.  But the smaller markets might get in, and once the playoffs start... who knows?

I used to get upset about- and as a fan of the Cleveland Guardians, it bothers me that the team I root for is priced out of the free agent market.  But this is the system major league baseball wants.  I can either stop being a fan or accept it.  I'm nowhere near the baseball fan I used to be, but I still follow the sport for the moment.

My big question is this; I know this is what baseball wants- but is it good for the sport to have such a huge disparity?

There was a similar period in baseball before.  Look at these World Series:

• 1958: New York Yankees def. Milwaukee Braves
• 1957: Milwaukee Braves def. New York Yankees
• 1956: New York Yankees def. Brooklyn Dodgers
• 1955: Brooklyn Dodgers def. New York Yankees
• 1954: New York Giants def. Cleveland Indians
• 1953: New York Yankees def. Brooklyn Dodgers
• 1952: New York Yankees def. Brooklyn Dodgers
• 1951: New York Yankees def. New York Giants
• 1950: New York Yankees def. Philadelphia Phillies
• 1949: New York Yankees def. Brooklyn Dodgers

In a ten year period, three teams took up 17 of the 20 spots in the World Series.  If you were a fan of the Yankees, Dodgers, or Giants, this was an awesome era of baseball.  If you rooted for any other team... was this fun?  

I'm not upset about this decision.  But it is a decision by baseball to encourage a few superteams.  They seem to think this is a good thing for the sport.  

I remain skeptical.

Project 190: 2024 update 1

 Weight (2024-01-01):  223.0 pounds

Yep, new year, new resolution-  I haven't been happy with how I've been feeling for the past few months, and I've gotten away from the principles and ideas that I did follow when I was healthier.  I waited until after the holidays and now I'm back on a plan on eating healthy.  

And, since I'm not sure who reads my blog besides a couple of close friends and some bots (Hi, bots!), I plan on using this site as a journal for this journey.  I'll put the progress up here on a weekly basis - I figure if it put it out for the world to see, it'll keep me on the path.

I'm keeping track of the weight... well, I'm an engineer.  I measure things and it gives me metrics to follow and a goal to shoot for.  I've said for years that if I ever dropped below 190 pounds I'd get a tattoo (slight problem; I still have no idea what tattoo I would want to get).  Let's see how close I can get.

I'm not calling this a diet, because my goal is to eat healthier on a permanent basis.  When I lost 30 pounds before, I kept it off for a long time because it wasn't so much a case of depriving myself as much as learning to enjoy healthier foods.  But over time, I've slipped; 223 is the highest I've been in years.  So, back to level 1 on this journey.  

Cheers!

(I'll still be using this blog for other thoughts; another resolution is to post more often.)

Wrapping up 2023: A Low Key Terrible Year

 Goodbye 2023.  And honestly, good riddance.

It's been a low-key terrible year.  I've been through years that were worse, on a personal level and on a world-wide level (one obvious example:  2001).  But 2023 seemed to be bad on multiple levels without ever getting too deep in it's misery.  It was a low-level fever that never broke- and very little good to come from it.

Take the Ukraine-Russian war.  It continued throughout 2023, no closer to a resolution than it was at the start of the year.  The casualities are near half a million- and if there is any hope that it will be ending soon, I am not hearing about it.

Then add the growing fighting in the Middle East.  Hamas' attack on October 7th wasn't an invasion; it was a group of thugs trying to provoke a fight by abusing innocent people.  Neither Israel nor Palestine will have peace or safety as long as Hamas exists.  

It feels like we are in a slow-moving growing worldwide conflict, and that there is nothing that can be done to avoid it.  Just a growing sense of dread.

On the US Front, it feels similar (though not nearly as deadly).  Barring some shocking election results in the primary, we are headed towards a 2020 Presidential rematch that no one wants.  It's up to the voters to select someone other than Biden or Trump; according to the polls, that isn't likely to happen.  

Even the entertainment seems dreary.  The Dodgers have just spent over $1,145,000,000.00 on baseball players this offseason.  Yeah, they'll be a superteam.  Is that going to be enjoyable to watch, even for them?

If I dig down, I can find some good news; the strikes for the writers and actors was resolved.  Inflation hasn't been beaten, but we've managed to hit a balance to raise the interest rates enough to lower inflation without causing a recession.  But even that seems fleeting.

There's been worse years.  But 2023 just seems to be dreary.  

Here's hoping the next year is better.

Goodbye, X

 I left 'X' (the former Twitter) today.  Deactivated my account permanently.  I'd been on the site since... 2009?  Something like that.

Goodbye

Mainly, I was following the Marie Kondo question- "Does this bring joy?"- and more and more, the answer was a resounding 'no'.  The original concept of Twitter- a place where anyone could post a short message- was great.  People could put up short messages, break news, come up with witty quips.  I followed a lot of people on the site; not only friends, but whoever was in a field that interested me; poker players, professional wrestlers, chefs (I picked up a ton of recipes).  

Was there politics?  Absolutely- I followed several people, not only people who I agreed with (Jonah Goldberg, Megan McArdle), but people I disagreed with (Matthew Yglesias) to see their opinion.  

But over time, the site got more and more toxic.  And yes, part of the blame belongs to Elon Musk- a man who has some brains and a ton of resources and seems to be using them to be a player in a culture war.  But he just greased the skids- this has been coming for a long time.

Social media- Twitter, Facebook, TikTok, etc- has been a powerful tool.  It's given everyone access to a megaphone that can be heard across the planet.  But it's a tool that we've abused, and one that I don't think we are ready to handle properly.  The rise of social media has been accompanied by a rise of depression, and we as a species are far more toxic to each other than we were 30 years ago.  

I would have guessed a tool that would let us see the insights of everyone on the planet would help us understand each other.  On this, I've been proven wrong so far.

Much like the Supercomputer in Wargames, I've realized that social media is a strange game, and the only winning move is not to play.  So I've withdrawn from the world's megaphone.  I don't expect to ever be back.

Going Infinite: Thoughts about SBF, Crypto, and the Cult of Personality

 I have finished Going Infinite, Michael Lewis' book about Sam Bankman-Fried and the Rise and Fall of FTX.  A few thoughts:

Would you give this man 15 billion dollars?

1)  Bankman-Fried has been found guilty of seven counts of fraud, and I firmly believe the evidence is correct and that he is guilty.  What I don't know is if his intention was to actually steal the money or he was just so criminally reckless with the money that it's missing or taken by other people.  The book is full of stories about how little he paid attention to any sort of guardrails to protect the financial interests of either himself or the people around him.

2)  Lewis is a great writer. (he did a better job explaining the 2008 financial crisis to me than anyone else in his book The Big Short).  He also finds Bankman-Fried a fascinating character, and paints him in a better light than most people expect.  Lewis doesn't hide the facts, but when his opinion comes out, it is more favorable on Bankman-Fried than you would expect.

3)  Bankman-Fried comes across (in my own opinion) as an idiot savant.  He's brilliant, especially at lateral thinking.  But he's also incapable of empathy, and not only believes he is smart, but that there is no point listening to other people.  At one point in the book, when he talks about how outsiders want him to bring in a CFO (Chief Financial Officer), his quote from the book:

"There's a functional religion around the CFO," said Sam.  "I'll ask them, 'Why do I need one?'  Some people cannot articulate a single thing the CFO is supposed to do.  They'll say 'keep track of the money' or 'make projections.'  I'm like, What the fuck do you think I do all day?  You think I don't know how much money we have?"

I think we see how that turned out.

4)  Here's my big question:  Why the hell did so many people give this guy so much money?  He had investors giving him 15 billion dollars.  That's $15,000,000,000.00  

I get that he's smart.  Big deal- I know lots of smart people.  I wouldn't give them my life savings.  

This isn't a Theranos situation, where the company outright lied about what they were capable of doing.  I can understand investors falling for that.  But even after reading the book, I don't understand either what his business model was supposed to be, nor why would people trust that this reckless sociopath would be the place to invest.

I admit that I'm biased- I've gone from being a skeptic of Cryptocurrency to now believing it is a complete scam.  So when a company based around Cryptocurrency is found out to be guilty of fraud, it just reinforces my beliefs.  But obviously a lot of people trusted his company- and specifically, trusted him.  Investors have decided to investor in the founder, even though they've been burned so many times before.  You'd think that people who were responsible for other people's money would expect more safeguards than invest because they think the founder is the next Steve Jobs.

Sam Bankman-Fried is an odd character; I enjoyed the book Michael Lewis wrote about him.  But I'm glad I never invested a dime in him- and I don't understand why others did.

 

NBA Predictions 2023-2024

 Eastern Conference:

1.       Boston

2.       Milwaukee

3.       Cleveland

4.       New York

5.       Philadelphia

6.       Miami 

7.       Brooklyn

8.       Orlando

9.       Atlanta

10.     Chicago

11.     Toronto

12.     Indiana

13.     Detroit

14.     Washington

15.     Charlotte 

Playoffs:

·         (play-ins):   Oralndo over Brooklyn; Atlanta over Chicago; Brooklyn over Atlanta

·         Boston over Brooklyn, Milwaukee over Orlando, Cleveland over Miami, New York over Philadelphia

·         Boston over New York, Cleveland over Milwaukee

·         Boston over Cleveland

Western Conference:

1.       Denver

2.       Phoenix

3.       LA Lakers

4.       Oklahoma City

5.       Golden State

6.       Memphis

7.       Sacramento

8.       New Orleans

9.       Minnesota

10.     Dallas

11.     LA Clippers

12.     Utah

13.     Houston

14.     Portland

15.     San Antonio

Playoffs:

·         (play-ins):   Sacramento over New Orleans, Minnesota over Dallas, Minnesota over New Orleans

·         Denver over Minnesota; Phoenix over Sacramento; Memphis over LA Lakers; Oklahoma City over Golden State

·         Oklahoma City over Denver; Phoenix over Memphis

·         Phoenix over Oklahoma City

More notes:

·     The East is weird; the top two teams shook up their roster and improved, on paper.  The only teams I really think are tanking (Charlotte and Washington) are in the East.  And Philadelphia is the team most likely to completely fall apart.  I think the teams that are the most stable (Cleveland and New York) might thrive, at least in the regular season

·     My fear for the Cavaliers is that they might be the next Utah- a great regular season team that doesn't have a playoff gear.  For this year, I have them winning two rounds (including shocking Milwaukee), but not able to voercome Boston

         

·     The West will be a dogfight.  There are eleven teams that can make a good argument.  Someone will finish in the lottery

·     There are four teams (Lakers, Clippers, Phoenix, Golden State) that are old, injury-prone, and top-heavy.  Someone is due for an awful year.  I'm picking the Clippers to fall apart, but I could see any one of these teams having a disaster of a season.

·         MVP?  The top contenders (Embiid, Jokic, Giannis) have all won the award.  I don't like Dallas enough to think Luka will win.  I'm picking Tatum

·         ROY?  Even finishing last in the West, Wembayana will impress enough to win the ROY

·         Finals?  There will be a shakeup in the playoffs, but I do think Boston is built to thrive in the postseason.  The West is a crapshoot; I'm picking Phoenix but won't bet heavily on it (they are two injuries away from the lottery; they are also a healthy year away from winning it all)

       Going with the Celtics to win the title.  After all, Boston's been without a championship long enough.

Going for Title #18

MLB Playoff Predictions 2023:

National League:

Wild Card Round:
- Phillies over Marlins, 2-0
- Brewers over Diamondbacks 2-1

Division Series:
- Braves over Phillies 3-1
- Dodgers over Brewers 3-1

Championship Series:
- Braves over Dodgers 4-2

American League:

Wild Card Round:
- Rangers over Rays, 2-1
- Blue Jays over Twins 2-1

Division Series:
- Orioles over Rangers 3-1
- Blue Jays over Astros 3-2

Championship Series:
- Orioles over Blue Jays 4-1

World Series:

- Atlanta Braves over Baltimore Orioles, 4-2

Rooting rankings:

1. Texas Rangers
2. Tampa Bay Rays
3. Toronto Blue Jays
4. Baltimore Orioles
5. Atlanta Braves
6. Minnesota Twins
7. Milwaukee Brewers
8. Philadelphia Phillies
9. Arizona Diamondbacks
10. ...
11. ...
12. Los Angeles Dodgers
13. Houston Astros
14. ...
15. ...
16. ...
17. ...
18. Florida Marlins (STILL BITTER ABOUT 1997!)

Your 2023 MLB Champions