Economic markers- 2025 edition

A year ago, I set seven indicators of the state of the country.  My goal was to compare year to year for each of the parameters, to try and objectively show if the country was getting better or worse.  I've also listed my sources, and my intention is to use the same source every time I do a health check for the country.

This past year there has been a lot of... well, a lot.  DOGE, tarriffs, Government shutdown, the Big Beautiful Bill, investigations into James Powell.  It's been exhausting.  At times, I just wanted to say, "What fresh hell is this?"  

Have all of these events made things better or worse for the country?  Let's compare...

1)  The current national debt.

Source:  US Debt Clock

• 2025-02-19 Debt:  $36.499 Trillion
• 2026-01-13 Debt:  $38.602 Trillion  (+2.103 Trillion)

• 2025-02-19 Ratio of US Federal Debt to GDP:  123.02%
• 2026-01-13 Ratio of US Federal Debt to GDP:  124.28%  (+1.26%)

Notes (2026):  Despite DOGE, the federal debt increased, both as a total and as a ratio to the GDP.  Considering all of the programs that were slashed by DOGE, you would think there would be a reduction of the deficit increase  

2)  US Employment Rate

Not the unemployment rate, which only accounts for people looking for jobs.  This is the percentage of the number of people who have a job as a percentage of the working age population (people beteween the ages of 15 and 64)

Source:  US Employment Rate

• January 2025 Value:  60.10%
• December 2025 Value:  59.70% (-.0.40%)

Notes (2026):  I'm a little surprised it only dropped by less than half a percent.  Anecdotally, I had heard about people having trouble finding work on a longer scale.

3)  Consumer Price Index

This measures the 12 month change in prices

Source:  US Bureau of Labor Statistics

• January 2025 All items:   3.0%
• December 2025 All items:   2.7%

• January 2025 Food:  2.5%
• December 2025 Food:  3.1%

• January 2025 Energy:  1.0%
• December 2025 Energy:  2.3%

• January 2025 All items less food and energy:  3.3%
• December 2025 All items less food and energy:  2.6%

Notes (2026):  A mixed bag.  Food and Energy has gone up compared, while everything else has gone down.  

4)  National average fuel price:

Source:  AAA Fuel Prices

• 2025-02-19 Value:  $3.164
• 2026-01-13 Value:  $2.820

Notes (2026):  The first clear, unadulterated win 

5)  Average rent price in the US

Source:  Rentcafe

• November 2024 rate:  $1,748
• December 2025 rate:  $1,740 (down $8)

Notes (2026):  Rent has gone down- a small fraction, but it's in the right direction.

6)  Average and Median US Income:

The average salary is the sum of all income devided by the number of workers.  The median salary is the midpoint, where 50% of the population is above the line and 50% is below the line

Source:  SoFi Learn

• Q4 2024 Average Salary:  $63,795
• Q4 2025 Average Salary:  $66,622  (+$2,427)

• Q4 2024 Median Salary:  $61,984
• Q4 2025 Median Salary:  unknown

Notes (2026):  My source hasn't updated the median salary.  The average salary does look promising.  I may need to look elsewhere for this

7)  Current population below poverty line

Source:  American Progress

• 2023 Poverty Threshold:  $30,900 for a family of four
• 2024 Poverty Threshold:  $31,812 for a family of four

• 2023 Poverty Rate:  11.1%
• 2024 Poverty Rate:  10.6%

Notes (2026):  The poverty rate seems to be about a year behind the other idicators

Total results (2026):  The economy has improved.  Inflation is still too high (closer to 3% than 2%), but nowhere near a panic level.  The income has increased, gas has gone down, and rent has flatlined.

The negatives?  Fewer people are working (nearly half a percent is not insignificant in a country of millions), and the debt continues to grow out of control. 

My plan is to continue to measure these every January and see how they all change to paint a picture of the economy

I welcome other suggestions for parameters.  They should be objective, easy to understand, and easy to check.

NFL Playoff Support Rankings

The 2025-2026 NFL Regular is finally over... what a weird year.  It seems fitting that it ended on a missed Field Goal allowing the Pittsburgh Steelers to win the AFC North.  I don't have a team that I root for, but I do take joy in watching the Ravens collapse.  (Why Yes, I'm still bitter...)

Considering that my pre-season Super Bowl involved two teams that missed the playoffs (The Detroit Lions and Baltimore Ravens), no one should take my NFL thoughts seriously.

I'm ranking the NFL Playoff teams on two scales- who I think is most likely to win, and who I want to win.

Who I think will win and who I want to see win

In terms of most likely to win, here's my non-professional thoughts:

1. Seattle Seahawks
2. Los Angeles Rams
3. New England Patriots
4. Denver Broncos
5. Buffalo Bills
6. Philadelphia Eagles
7. Chicago Bears
8. Jacksonville Jaguars
9. San Francisco 49ers
10. Los Angeles Chargers
11. Houston Texans
12. Green Bay Packers
13. Pittsburgh Steelers
14. Carolina Panthers

But I've got no faith in any of these teams.  Only a few teams have great Quarterbacks.  The #2 seeds both went worst-to-first, so who knows how much of their won-loss record is due to their schedule.  The Seahawks and Rams seem like the most complete team, but I wouldn't bet heavily on any of them.

Now I rank them based on who I'd like to see win.  This is a combination of teams that haven't won recently (or at all), my own past fandom history of dealing with the team, and... vibes, I guess.  I don't really hate any of the teams left in the playoffs (thank you again, Pittsburgh)

By that ranking, here's who I'm hoping wins it all...

1. Buffalo Bills (it'd be great if they finally won one)
2. Chicago Bears
3. Green Bay Packers (mainly for the Tom Grossi content...)
4. Houston Texans
5. Pittsburgh Steelers 
6. Seattle Seahawks
7. San Francisco 49ers
8. Denver Broncos
9. Los Angeles Chargers
10. Los Angeles Rams
11. Carolina Panthers
12. Jacksonville Jaguars
13. New England Patriots (nothing against the team, but if there is one fanbase that doesn't need another superbowl, it's the Patriots)
14. Philadelphia Eagles (don't hate them, but they did win it all last year)

Farewell, 2025

Farewell, 2025- you won't be missed.

There's been worse years- 2001, obviously.  COVID in 2020.  There have even been worse years on a personal level.  But 2025 may be the most unpleasant year I've experienced.  The entire year just felt emotionally exhausting.  Like I lived next year to the Hatfield and the McCoys in the middle of their feud.  Even if I wasn't in the fight myself, it was constant nonstop brawls, screaming matches, and garbage that ended up on my lawn.

Economically, it feels like we're in a bad bubble that's about to pop.  There's such a focus on AI, and the stock market is so top heavy with the "Magnificent Seven" companies, that it feels we're right on the edge of a recession.  And maybe my fears are overblown- but the Buffett Indicator shows the stock market is so overvalued that a recession could be devastating for the country.

Worse, the checks and balances we use to save the country from our worst impulses seem to be going away. I'm a process person- Even if the rules aren't ideal, they were placed there for a reason, and we shouldn't just ignore them to get a short term advantage.  Well, we're bombing Venezuelan boats (I don't recall Congress issuing a declaraction of war, or even apssing a bill authorizing the use of force), cancelling funds already authorized by Congress, and having Congress keep the government shut down, to try and hide the fact that the President was buddies with the devil himself.

I've been an optimist by nature.  Eventually, we do the right thing.  But 2025 has tested my optimistic resolve.  Here's hoping that as the calendar changes, things get better for all of us.

The Cleveland Sports Curse

Indulge me in a bit of self-whining, if you please.  There are far more important things to focus on in this world, and in my own life personally.  But I am a sports fan, and have attempted to use sports as a way to bring me joy when the rest of reality is feeling dismal.  Unfortunately, I am a Cleveland sports fan.  And for all of the cliches you may have heard about Cleveland and their dystopian sports teams, let me assure me... it is far worse than you think.

First, let me start by saying this- I love living in Cleveland.  The city has an undeserved reputation, and is a great city to live in.  It has all of the benefits of a large city while still being affordable.  Traffic is nothing compared other cities.  We're within a day's drive to about half the United States.  The weather can be cold, and the East Side gets a lot of snow- but I'll take a Cleveland winter over a St. Louis summer any say of the week.  There's an art deco look about the city that really is amazing to look at.  Cleveland's not "cool" and hasn't been since the 1950's- but I'm not in my 20's; "cool" is overrated.  Cleveland is a great place to live.

Cleveland:  Love the city, hate being a sports fan

But it's hell being a sports fan in this city.

Let me give you a few bullet points about why it sucks to follow Cleveland sports:

• We will start with the Guardians (and by the way, Guardians remain an awesome team name, and much better than Indians).  They have only won two World Series- 1920 and 1948.  That's tied with the Philadelphia Phillies for the fewest World Series among the teams that have been in baseball since the World Series Started.
• They last won the World Series in 1948.  Except the five expansion teams that have never won the World Series, that is the longest drought among the MLB franchises.  The second longest is the Pittsburgh Pirates, who won the World Series in 1979- over thirty years later.
• And, due to the current structure of baseball, where teams can practically spend as much money as they want for their salaries, the teams with the biggest payrolls have the best chance to win.  And the Guardians currently rank 28th in MLB payroll- with no sign of that improving.  The Guardians are a smart team, but I see no hope in them winning a World Series in my lifetime.
• Next, we come to the Cleveland Cavaliers, who have a 15-13 record.  Two games above .500.  That's promising, right?  But then we look further...
• They currently have the highest salary in the NBA, and are above the second apron- which means they cannot make any moves.  This team- the one that is barely above .500- is what they are locked in for the next few years.
• Plus, they have given up their 2027 and 2029 first round draft picks, and have swapped (get the worst version) of the 2026 and 2028 first round draft picks.  
• So this is their team.  And in a year where most of their competition has been decimated by serious injuries, they are playing horribly.  Their best chance to win is right now, and it does not look good.
• But the Guardians and the Cavaliers are awesome compared to the travesty that is the Browns.  
• Pre-1995, the Browns were a good team that seemed curse to be unable to win the big one- sort of like where the Buffalo Bills are now.  Too many tragic games, all with shorthand nicknames:  "The Fumble" , "The Drive", "Red Right 88".  Just a barrage of events with the team coming up short
• Mind you, in the 1950s and 1960s they were great and won several titles- that ended right before the Super Bowl Era started, and most modern fans don't look at those.
• But in 1995, Art Modell moved the team out of Cleveland so they could become the Baltimore Ravens.  Four years later, the NFL gifted Cleveland with a new team.  And that team has been mind-boggingly awful.
• Since 1999, they have averaged 5 wins a year.  Imagine going 5-12 every year for 27 years.  That is what the Browns have gone through.  Now imagine having your fall and winter dominated by this news.  Every.  Single.  Year.  
• There is a meme showing how many QBs the team has gone through since they have returned (and needs to be updated with Sanders):

    

• How bad are the Browns?  Put it this way- The greatest football coach of all time couldn't win with them.
  
  
• At least the Cavaliers have the 2016 NBA Title- the only one that has happened in my lifetime.  If you want to make an argument that LeBron James is the GOAT of basketball, the argument is this:  He won Cleveland a sports title.  That's something no one else can possibly say.

Look- it's sports.  Nothing important.  I know this.  I've given up asking the teams to give me joy.  Just don't give any more misery.  Is that too much to ask?

Thoughts with Whiskey: 2025-12-10

Still drinking Buffalo Trace- just nursing my bourbon as we head into the Holiday Season.

Various thoughts:

NFL- I'm no longer a Cleveland Browns fan, and I doubt I will be again in the future.  However, the city of Cleveland loves the team, so I learn about the ins and outs of the franchise by osmosis.  I'd much rather learn about the Cavaliers or Guardians, but right now the most interesting team is the Browns.

They've hit a particularly nasty catch-22.  They drafted a QB in the fifth round (Shedeur Sanders) who they didn't really want, only all of the QBs ahead of him were either traded or injured.  He's played all right- not great, but the team has a poor offensive line and even worse receivers.  The Browns are currently 5th in the draft and will likely get one of the top two QBs in the draft if things don't change.

So, if they decide that Sanders is good enough to lead them to the playoffs, they can trade down and pick up several picks that can help them.  If they decide Sanders isn't good enough, they can draft one of the top QBs and start over.  Sanders has played just well enough that it's not an easy decision either way.

Regardless, the one thing we know is that whatever decision the Browns make, it will be the wrong one.

MLB- The Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) expires at the end of next season, and people are fearing a lockout between the owners and the players.  I've changed my mine- I no longer think a lockout will happen.  

The system is broken- look at the salary disparity.  It's well over 10-1, even worse when only looking at active players.  The top tier teams outspend the small market teams.  And when a small market team developes a great player, the market forces pushes them to a larger market and larger salary just as they are in their primes.  

The system is broken- but who wants to have a lockout to change it?  Not the large market owners, who get a ton of money from their local sports stations to justify the expense.  Not the small market owners, who get a profit from the luxury tax without having to spend a lot.  Not the players, who earn a fortune in their salaries.  Not MLB, who love 'Great Teams'.

Really, the system only sucks if you're a fan of a small market team, knowing the only way you'll see your homegrown players contend is to leave your team for one of the big markets.  And no one really cares about them...

Merry Christmas, everyone!  We'll wrap up 2025 and make predictions for 2026 soon.

Thoughts with Whiskey: 2025-11-27

Beverage of choice:  Buffalo Trace

Happy Thanksgiving, one and all!  

The traditional Thanksgiving feast

I am currently inside, having a piece of Pumpkin Chiffon Pie.  Tonight I relax, while the snow falls. Tomorrow I wake up and start clearing the driveway.  Here are my current random thoughts...

* Watching Death By Lightning on Netflix.  I read the book that the show was based on (Destiny of the Republic, by Candice Millard.  It's a fascinating story- James A. Garfield may by the greatest "What if?" President in the history of the US.  Just being a great man does not automatically make someone a great President (for example...), but I think Garfield could have been a boon for the country if he had lived.  It's also a period of US history I don't know that much about (after the Civil War, before President Teddy Roosevelt)

* Basketball is underway- and Oklahoma looks damn near unstoppable.  The best record in the NBA, their second-best player hasn't been on the floor yet... and right now, they'd have two of the top 10 NBA draft picks next year.  

* Trying to decide what retrospective I will do next year.  If it's music, I'm thinking Led Zeppelin.  My other thought is to do a TV retrospective on the show Taskmaster, which has become my favorite comedy show

* It is Thanksgiving, and there's a lot I am thankful for.  Friends, family, loved ones.  Thank you, everyone who reads this blog.  There are problems in the world- there are always problems in the world- but the universe is more good than bad, and I thank you all for sharing your time, hearts, and minds with me.

Peace to all of you.

NBA 2025-6 Predictions

Last year, I correctly predicted the Boston Celtics to win the NBA Title.  Let's see how this year goes!

Eastern Conference:

1.       Cleveland

2.       Orlando

3.       New York

4.       Detroit

5.       Atlanta

6.       Milwaukee

7.       Philadelphia

8.       Indiana

9.       Boston

10.     Chicago

11.     Miami

12.     Toronto

13.     Washington

14.     Charlotte

15.     Brooklyn 

Playoffs:

·      (play-ins):   Boston over Chicago; Indiana over Philadelphia; Philadelphia over Boston

·      Cleveland over Philadelphia; Orlando over Indiana; New York over Milwaukee; Detroit over Atlanta

·      Cleveland over Detroit; New York over Orlando

·      Cleveland over New York

Western Conference:

1.       Oklahoma City

2.       Denver

3.       Minnesota

4.       Houston

5.       LA Lakers

6.       Golden State

7.       San Antonio

8.       Dallas

9.       New Orleans

10.     LA Clippers

11.     Portland

12.     Memphis

13.     Sacramento

14.     Phoenix

15.     Utah

Playoffs:

·     (play-ins):  New Orleans over Los Angeles Clippers; San Antonio over Dallas; Dallas over New Orleans

·     Oklahoma City over Dallas; Denver over San Antonio; Minnesota over Golden State; Houston over Los Angeles Lakers

·     Oklahoma City over Houston; Denver over Minnesota  

·     Denver over Oklahoma City

More notes:

·     So many players have been hurt in the East that have taken out some of the top tier teams- Boston, Indiana, Philadelphia.  New York has been healthy, but changed coaches.  Orlando has a ton of talent but still need to prove they can score.  Cleveland won the most games last year, and have been the most consistent.  This is their best chance to make the finals

·     The West is a dogfight.  Houston losing Van Vleet is devastating; he wasn't their best player but he was the key to the team.  OKC has the most talent, and is young enough to actually improve.  But it's tough to win two titles in a row- too many series against top teams.  

·     MVP?  If you can be the MVP while being a Play In Team, I think Victor Wembayana takes it.  Jokic is the best player, but if anyone is close, the voters won't give him another MVP.  So I'll go for a reach and say Paola Banchero shocks everyone.

-     ROY?  Probably Cooper Flagg, assuming he's healthy

-     Lottery?  If Phoenix ends up winning the lottery, their pick goes to either Washington or Memphis.  And I think both of those teams end up in the lottery as well.  I'm picking Washington or Memphis get the #1 pick...

·     Finals?  The West has the most talent.  But they also will batter each other for three rounds.  And matchups matter.  I think Denver, who has the best player in the NBA, takes out OKC.  Denver is a good matchup for OKC (who is a great defensive team, but might not solve Jokic with a better team around him).  But then they face the Cleveland Cavaliers, who I think have an easier time this year.  And Cleveland (who is a great offensive team) can outscore Denver.

        Cleveland in 7.