Thoughts with Whiskey: 2025-09-12

Our beverage tonight:  Weller Antique 107.  Not bad, but I prefer the Weller Reserve (green bottle), which is a great tasting Wheat Bourbon.

Where to begin...

- Yesterday was the 24th anniversary of 9/11 (and the 25th anniversay will be a couple of months after the USA celebrates our 250th birthday), and Charlie Kirk was assassinated earlier this week.  Not a particularly great week for the country.  

Kirk left behind a wife and two children under the age of three.  You don't have to agree with Kirk to think that it's fucked up that he was shot for expressing his views.

Part of the deal of being American is Freedom of Speech.  People say what they like, and we don't arrest or hurt them for what they say.  Yell, argue, call someone an idiot- but anytime someone gets attacked for expressing their views, it's anti-American.  

I didn't like a lot of what Kirk said.  But I liked the fact that he was willing to go to colleges and argue his beliefs.  

I don't talk much politics anymore.  Up until now, I've chalked it up to the idea that neither party really represents me, and that debating doesn't lead to any actual insight, just pointless arguing.  But now I'm wondering if part of it is cowardice- I don't want to upset my friends by disagreeing with them.  Or strangers.  And if the implied message of the shooting of Charlie Kirk is "Don't speak up... or else."  Then the proper response is to speak up twice as loud.

(speech over.  I'll move onto lighter subjects now)

- Gene editing technology is showing promise to cure diabetes.  The potential for mRNA is limitless in what it can possibly do.  This might actually lead to the cure for cancer, dementia, neurogenerative diseases like ALS.

I recently invested in the stock market in an ETF of genetic companies like CRISPR technologies.  I am optimistic about the future of medicine.

- In fact, I really wish we'd take half the money given to AI and spend it on Gene editing; I suspect it could advance cure by years if not decades.

I'm an AI-skeptic.  I don't think it's a fraud (like I do with Cryptocurrency).  But it's overblown, and certainly not worth the billions of dollars that has been invested in it.  Right now, it's nothing more than a slightly more user-friendly search engine.  Cute, but not a significant technological advance to us.

And if it does turn out to deliver what has been promised... and take over a large number of the jobs... then what?  You can't have a world where 50% of the population is not just unemployed but unemployable.  

I suspect a lot of people who are investing in AI are thinking of the benefits without thinking seriously about the consequences.  And that's if it delivers; much more like, the investment will be wasted.

- OK, time to actually get lighter in subjects:

- The Pink Floyd music retrospective is nearing the end- only three more studio albums left.  It's been a fascinating review.  My plan is to pick another artist in 2026, but I'm not sure who to pick.  

- The Kawhi Leonard story continues to amaze me.  First, Pablo Torre may be doing the best reporting in any field right now.  This is the second significant story that he's broken with a lot of evidence.  

Second, the NBA has to come down hard on the Clippers, even if there isn't more of a 'smoking gun'.  If they don't, they have just approved a blueprint for a salary cap workaround for every team in the NBA.  The NBA will be like MLB- which is great if you want to see the same six teams contend every year.  

I'm going to predict the NBA will hurt the Clippers- maybe not five 1st round draft picks, but at least 3, and possibly suspend Steve Ballmer from interacting with the team for a couple of years.   

Thoughts with Whiskey: 2025-05-25

Current drink:  Maker's Mark.  Not my favorite bourbon, but extremely solid, and a great deal for the price.

• Finished the episode "Who Are You?" from the show Andor.  Absolutely brilliant.  One reason it works is that it's the first show since the 1977 original movie to make the Empire actually competent and scary (the later movies made the Sith scary and the Empire as just their lackeys).  A good guideline for Star Wars is that the more emphasis they put on the Force, the weaker the world gets.

• I'd like to thank Tyrese Haliburton for being the NBA villain they didn't know they needed.  He and the Pacers are both very good and very obnoxious.  Part of me roots for them to lose- the other part wants them to win it all this year so my beloved Cleveland Cavaliers can knock them off next year.

• The House passed the "Big Beautiful Bill" this past week.  Two thoughts:

• Speaker Mike Johnson is, much like Nancy Pelosi and Mitch McConnell, really good at his job.  He twisted enough arms to get the bill passed when it seemed unlikely.
• I'm an old school Conservative.  I like tax cuts, and I think the government overspends.  But with a current debt at over $36 trillion and a current deficit at over $1 trillion (that's over $1,000,000,000,000.00), we really need spending cuts and tax hikes.  This bill does nothing to deal with the debt seriously

• Current game:  The life and suffering of Sir Brante.  Fascinating "Chose Your Own Adventure" type game going over an entire life.  Really enjoying it

Everyone have a great holiday:  Some Gave All 

Thoughts With Whiskey: 2025-05-16

Today's beverage:  Weller Special Reserve.  Probably the best value for bourbon, in my humble opinion.

* The Cleveland Cavaliers of 2024-2025 may be one of my favorite teams to have ever followed, and it was heartbreaking to see them go out in the 2nd round of the playoffs.  I would run it back with the same players; stability is criminally underrated in basketball, and I do think this was a learning experience (though a painful one) for them.  

* Watching season 2 of "Andor" now.  Best Star Wars tv show, even over the Mandalorian.  My plan is to finish the season and then rewatch "Rogue One".    And it continues my theory that the less involved the Force are in the Star Wars Universe, the better.

* I'd chat about politics... but what's the point?  I want my elected officials to be competent, decent, and boring.  Text me when that option becomes available.  

* Pete Rose and 'Shoeless' Joe Jackson are now eligible to be elected to the Baseball Hall of Fame.  I lived in Kentucky when Rose broke Ty Cobb's record, and he was deified in that part of the country.  He was a great baseball player and horrible human being.  Though I suppose the same also applies to Ty Cobb and others who are actually in the Hall of Fame.  

* Be well, everyone.  It's rough out there.  

NBA 2025 Lottery Booking

Another year, another potential franchise player that everyone wants.  Ladies and Gentlemen, meet Mister Cooper Flagg.  All of the NBA teams want him, and the teams who did not make the playoffs are in the lottery to earn the right to draft him (if the teams haven't already traded away their picks).  And the draft is supposed to be deep enough that anyone who gets into the top 4 should get an excellet player.  I don't think the lottery is rigged.... but IF it was, here's how I'd book things.

Cooper Flagg

My Crazy Dream Booking: Portland, Sacramento, Houston, Chicago.

When in doubt, pick franchises that haven't ever won the NBA title.  I'm also in favor in giving all of the fanbases hope- and Portland certainly needs some hope.

As an added bonus, if Philadelphia drops from 5 to 7, they lose their pick to OKC.  Add in Phoenix losing their pick to Houston, and it's a lesson in not trading away unprotected draft picks.

  
What Should Happen: Winners of the lottery:  Washington, Charlotte, Toronto, Chicago, 

One thing I've noticed- all of the top prospects end up in the Western confernce. Wembeyana ended up in San Antonio; Zion ended up in New Orleans.  It's one of the reasons the Western Conference is tougher than the Eastern Confernce.

We need some balance- and Washington needs some hope.  Let's give the Eastern conference the top 3 picks  

What Will Happen: Winners of the lottery:  Utah, Washington, Brooklyn, Charlotte

Fourtune favors the worst teams, and the three worst teams end up in the top 4 picks.  Brooklyn is a large city franchise that ends up with a top 3 pick.

What I’m Terrified Will Happen: Dallas, Atlanta, New Orleans, Philadelphia

I don't like rewarding teams that make foolish moves.  Dallas traded Luka Doncic and got an older, injury-prone Anthony Davis for him.  The Dejounte Murray trade cost Atlanta their pick (to San Antonio)- and then Atlanta traded Murray for New Orleans' pick.  

If I Was Booking This And I Hated You: The Lakers get Cooper Flagg

Not possible- but the Lakers have the "I win.  I always win" button.  So never say never...

NBA 2024-2025 Playoff Predictions

 For the record, here is my predictions from the start of the season.  

Eastern Conference:

Play-in Games:

• Orlando Magic defeats Atlanta Hawks
• Chicago Bulls defeats Miami Heat
• Chicago Bulls defeats Atlanta Hawks

1st Round:

• Cleveland Cavaliers defeats Chicago Bulls, 4-1
• Boston Celtics defeats Orlando Magic, 4-2
• New York Knicks defeats Detroit Pistons, 4-3
• Milwaukee Bucks defeats Indiana Pacers, 4-2

2nd Round:

• Cleveland Cavaliers defeats Milwaukee Bucks, 4-1
• Boston Celtics defeats New York Knicks, 4-3

Conference Finals:

• Cleveland Cavaliers defeats Boston Celtics, 4-3

Thoughts:

• To the surprise of no one, the two best teams in the East meet in the finals.  Boston has the deep playoff experience.  Cleveland has the better record- and is better rested (the top 3 players on the Cavaliers in Minutes per game are all under 32 minutes;  the top 3 for Boston are all above 33 minutes).  And Boston played a ton more games last year.
• Add it up- and the longer the series goes, the fresher Cleveland will be.  Boston's a great team- but I think Cleveland wins in game 7

Western Conference:

Play-in Games:

• Golden State Warriors defeats Memphis Grizzlies
• Sacramento Kings defeats Dallas Mavericks
• Sacramento Kings defeats Memphis Grizzlies

1st Round:

• Oklahoma City Thunder defeats Sacramento Kings, 4-0
• Houston Rockets defeats Golden State Warriors, 4-1
• Minnesota TImberwolves defeats Los Angeles Lakers, 4-3
• Denver Nuggets defeats Los Angeles Clippers, 4-2

2nd Round:

• Oklahoma City Thunder defeats Denver Nuggets, 4-2
• Minnesota Timberwolves defeats Houston Rockets, 4-3

Conference Finals:

• Oklahoma City Thunder defeats Minnesota Timberwolves, 4-1

Thoughts:

• Oklahoma City Thunder is head and shoulders above every other team in the West this year.  After them, it's a dogfight.
• I have Minnesota being the surprise team to make it to the conference finals.  Even at the 6 seed, they won 49 games- and I think they underperformed.  

NBA Finals:

• Oklahoma City Thunder defeats Cleveland Cavaliers, 4-3

I want the Cavaliers to win it all.  But objectively, Oklahoma is the best team.  They won the most games despite some serious injuries.  Maybe if Chet Holmgren has problems, the Cleveland front court will lead them to victory.  

They split the series, each team winning 1.  Cleveland won by 7.  Oklahoma won by 20.

I have to give it to the best team, not the team I'm rooting for.

Your NBA Champions- the Oklahoma City Thunder!

NBA Predictions 2024-2025

Last year, I correctly predicted the Boston Celtics to win the NBA Title.  Let's see how this year goes!

Eastern Conference:

1.       New York

2.       Boston

3.       Cleveland

4.       Orlando

5.       Indiana

6.       Milwaukee

7.       Philadelphia

8.       Miami

9.       Atlanta

10.     Detroit

11.     Chicago

12.     Charlotte

13.     Toronto

14.     Brooklyn

15.     Washington 

Playoffs:

·      (play-ins):   Philadelphia over Miami; Detroit over Atlanta; Miami over Detroit

·      New York over Philadelphia; Boston over Miami; Cleveland over Milwaukee; Orlando over Indiana

·      New York over Orlando; Boston over Cleveland

·      Boston over New York

Western Conference:

1.       Oklahoma City

2.       Minnesota

3.       Dallas

4.       New Orleans

5.       Denver

6.       Sacramento

7.       Phoenix

8.       Memphis

9.       Houston

10.     San Antonio

11.     LA Lakers

12.     Golden State

13.     LA Clippers

14.     Utah

15.     Portland

Playoffs:

·     (play-ins):  Phoenix over Memphis; Houston over San Antonio; Houston over Memphis

·     Oklahoma City over Houston; Minnesota over Phoenix; Dallas over Sacramento; Denver over New        Orleans

·     Oklahoma City over Denver; Minnesota over Dallas  

·     Minnesota over Oklahoma City

More notes:

·     The East- I think Philadelphia and Milwaukee are old and so top-heavy that a couple of nagging injuries could cripple either team.  Especially with younger teams on the rise in the East.  

-    I really think New York has a great team; I also think they have a coach who burns out their players, which will hurt them in the playoffs

·     I'm a Cleveland Cavaliers fans, and really want to argue they are better than Boston.  But at the moment, if everyone is relatively healthy, I can't.  Boston wins the East

         

·     The West will be a dogfight.  I'm going against the older teams (Lakers, Phoenix, Golden State) and favoring the younger teams (New Orleans, Houston, Minnesota)

·     OKC will have the best record, and will be favored.  But I like Minnesota, and I think the KAT trade willr eally help the team.

·     MVP?  The past five years have been centers or power forwards; this year, it's a guard.  I'm in on Anthony Edwards

-     ROY?  No idea- Reed Shepherd?

-     Lottery?  Lately, the top franchise picks goes to the West.  Absent any other reason, I'll argue that Cooper Flag ends up in Utah.  

·     Finals?  Boston's back for a second year.  But the player Anthony Edwards reminds me most if Dwayne Wade.  And I really like their team- it has depth, and they have experience.  And running it back to the finals twice is tough.  

      Minnesota in 6.  

NBA Status going into 2024-2025

After Free Agency and the Draft, things slow down.  Right now, teams should put themselves in one of five categories.  Here's where I see the current teams:

1) Those competing for a title now:

• Boston Celtics
• Cleveland Cavaliers
• Dallas Mavericks
• Denver Nuggets
• Milwaukee Bucks
• Minnesota Timberwolves
• New York Knicks
• Philadelphia 76ers
• Phoenix Suns
• Los Angeles Lakers
• Los Angeles Clippers

Notes:  There shouldn't be this many teams trying to compete now- I suspect several of these teams belong in cateogry 5, and will be just starting a rebuild next year.  

I'm a Cavaliers fan- and while they are young, they have no room to improve unless their current players get better.  It's possible, but they only have one route- and a lot of teams to overcome.  

2) Those in the middle of a rebuild and plan to compete in 2-3 years:

• Oklahoma City Thunder
• Orlando Magic
• Indianapolis Pacers
• San Antonio Spurs
• Houston Rockets
• New Orleans Pelicans

Notes:  This is a good category to be in.  It's very possible that half these teams could contend this year- but they are also young enough that they can wait.

3) Those at the start of a rebuild and hope to compete in 6 years:

• Brooklyn Nets
• Washington Wizards
• Detroit Pistons
• Charlotte Hornets

Notes:  These teams know where they are, and are collecting talent and trying to gel together.

4) Those that are trying to tear down the team completely and are 2 years from starting their rebuild:

• Golden State Warriors
• Chicago Bulls
• Toronto Raptors
• Utah Jazz
• Portland Trail Blazers

Notes:  These are the teams that know they can't compete, but haven't blown up the team yet to bottom out (it doesn't help that the teams in category 3 are so bad that they couldn't bottom out if they tried).  

Putting Golden State here is a choice- by all rights, they should be in the same grouping as the Clippers/Lakers/Suns.  But I think letting Klay go is the first step towards starting over.  They have far more to go (and they could bounce back if Kuminga and Moody step up), but for now they belong here

5) Other (who the hell knows?):

• Miami Heat
• Atlanta Hawks
• Sacramento Kings
• Memphis Grizzlies

Notes:  In my opinion, the worst category to be in.  Too good to get a franchsie draft player, too bad to really compete in the playoffs even if everything goes well, too deep in the salary cap to easily start over.  They are two years away from getting to category 4, and worse- might think they are one move from category 1.  

Thoughts without Whiskey- 2024-07-06

Too early in the morning to drink...

• Politics:  Biden needs to step aside, today.  He's 82, and he's already shown that he is not capable of being President today, let alone for four more years.  It's tragic- I actually don't think he's done a bad job, given the problems of the past four years- but for the good of the nation, he needs to announce he won't run for re-election

• Politics 2:  At this point, unless Kamala Harris steps aside (and why should she), she would be the natural replacement as the Democratic nominee.  I admit she hasn't impressed me as a politician; she's all right talking to people that already agree with her, but the President also needs to address people who either disagree with her or are unsure.  On that front, she's been terrible so far.  There are issues that work in her favor (abortion, crime) and issues that work against her (immigration, inflation).  But that applies to every politican.  We will find out if she is up to the task.  Harris and the party has four months to make the case- and the chances of her winning are much better than if Biden remains on the ticket.

• Politics 3 (last one):  If I'm a Democrat (I'm not), or I'm a person who hates the thought of Trump winning (I am), then I am furious at the Biden White House.  They've known he's been having problems for months.  People have seen several video clips of him forgetting, appearing lost, stumbling.  But rather than acknowledge this, they covered it up, did not give the press a chance to interview him, and blocked any primary challengers.  

It's now July, it's almost the convention, and the public only just now has discovered how far gone Biden is.  Worse, Biden has announced that he's staying in- and because he has the delegates, I don't think the Democratic Party can block him.  

Trump went through a Primary.  I don't like it, but the GOP has decided he's their standardbearer, and they had a fair chance to test him and replace him.  The Democrats didn't with Biden.  

If Trump wins in 2024, the people who covered for Biden deserve the blame.

 

• Sports:  The Cavaliers signed Donovan Mitchell.  Mitchell's an outstanding player, and he is showing that he wants to be the team leader (look at how he was encouraging his teammates during the playoffs games, even when he was injured).  The Cavs have a lot of talent, and hopefully the new coach Kenny Atkinson can elevate the team.  Given the moves by the rest of the Eastern contenders, they will need to step up.

• Writing:  My friend Don Mewha has written a book.  I'm jealous.  During COVID I tried to write a superhero story.  I did finish the story, sent it out to try and get published, got rejected soundly, and put it aside.  (Though if anyone wants to Beta read it, send me a message)

I've got a couple ideas germinating in my head, but I'm trying to figure out if I have the time and energy to try again.  It would be something different.  It's definitely a better way to spend my time that trying to beat Grimdawn on Hardcore mode.

NBA Playoff Predictions, 2023-2024

After boldly (and often incorrectly) making my NBA Predictions at the start of the season, I thought I would update this now that the playoffs are set up:

Eastern Conference:

Play-ins:

• Philadelphia 76ers defeat the Miami Heat
• Chicago Bulls defeat Atlanta Hawks
• Miami Heat defeat the Chicago Bulls

First Round:

• Boston Celtics defeat Miami Heat, 4 games to 2
• Phialdelphia 76ers defeat the New York Knicks, 4 games to 3
• Milwaukee Bucks defeat the Indianapolis Pacers, 4 games to 2
• Cleveland Cavaliers defeat the Orlando Magic, 4 games to 3

Second Round:

• Boston Celtics defeat the Cleveland Cavaliers, 4 games to 1
• Milwaukee Bucks defeat the Philadelphia 76ers, 4 games to 2

Conference Finals:

• Boston Celtics defeat the Milwaukee Bucks, 4 games to 2

Eastern Notes:

• The Celtics have been dominant, and I expect that to continue, as long as they remain healthy
• Outside of the Celtics, it's a weird division.  The most dangerous teams might be the 7 and 8 seeds, as the 76ers are finally healthy and the Heat always get into gear in the Playoffs
• I love my Cleveland Cavaliers- and I hope they grow as a team and defeat Orlando.  I can't see them or anyone else beating Boston in the Eastern Conference

Western Conference:

Play-ins:

• Los Angeles Lakers defeat New Orleans Pelicans
• Golden State Warriors defeat the Sacramento Kings
• Golden State Warriors defeat the New Orleans Pelicans

First Round:

• Oklahoma City Thunder defeat Golden State Warriors, 4 games to 1
• Denver Nuggests defeat the Los Angeles Lakers, 4 games to 1
• Minnesota Timberwolves defeat the Phoenix Suns, 4 games to 3
• Dallas Mavericks defeat the Los Angeles Clippers, 4 games to 3

Second Round:

• Oklahoma  City Thunder defeat the Dallas Mavericks, 4 games to 2
• Denver Nuggets defeat the Minnesota Timberwolves, 4 games to 2

Conference Finals:

• Denver Nuggets defeat the Oklahoma City Thunder, 4 games to 1

Western Notes:

• There's no way the Lakers and Warriors don't win the Play-In Games, right?
• The best teams are real young and inexperienced (OKC, Minnesota).  The veteran teams have not played well (Lakers, Warriors, Suns).  But I do think the young teams have too much firepower...
• Until they run into Denver, who is a nightmare for anyone.

NBA FINALS:

At the start of the season, I went with Boston.  They've been the best team with the best record.  I love Denver, but I think they have a tougher road to make it to the finals.  Everything is set up for Boston to win, and I think they pull it off, 4 games to 2

NBA Predictions 2023-2024

 Eastern Conference:

1.       Boston

2.       Milwaukee

3.       Cleveland

4.       New York

5.       Philadelphia

6.       Miami 

7.       Brooklyn

8.       Orlando

9.       Atlanta

10.     Chicago

11.     Toronto

12.     Indiana

13.     Detroit

14.     Washington

15.     Charlotte 

Playoffs:

·         (play-ins):   Oralndo over Brooklyn; Atlanta over Chicago; Brooklyn over Atlanta

·         Boston over Brooklyn, Milwaukee over Orlando, Cleveland over Miami, New York over Philadelphia

·         Boston over New York, Cleveland over Milwaukee

·         Boston over Cleveland

Western Conference:

1.       Denver

2.       Phoenix

3.       LA Lakers

4.       Oklahoma City

5.       Golden State

6.       Memphis

7.       Sacramento

8.       New Orleans

9.       Minnesota

10.     Dallas

11.     LA Clippers

12.     Utah

13.     Houston

14.     Portland

15.     San Antonio

Playoffs:

·         (play-ins):   Sacramento over New Orleans, Minnesota over Dallas, Minnesota over New Orleans

·         Denver over Minnesota; Phoenix over Sacramento; Memphis over LA Lakers; Oklahoma City over Golden State

·         Oklahoma City over Denver; Phoenix over Memphis

·         Phoenix over Oklahoma City

More notes:

·     The East is weird; the top two teams shook up their roster and improved, on paper.  The only teams I really think are tanking (Charlotte and Washington) are in the East.  And Philadelphia is the team most likely to completely fall apart.  I think the teams that are the most stable (Cleveland and New York) might thrive, at least in the regular season

·     My fear for the Cavaliers is that they might be the next Utah- a great regular season team that doesn't have a playoff gear.  For this year, I have them winning two rounds (including shocking Milwaukee), but not able to voercome Boston

         

·     The West will be a dogfight.  There are eleven teams that can make a good argument.  Someone will finish in the lottery

·     There are four teams (Lakers, Clippers, Phoenix, Golden State) that are old, injury-prone, and top-heavy.  Someone is due for an awful year.  I'm picking the Clippers to fall apart, but I could see any one of these teams having a disaster of a season.

·         MVP?  The top contenders (Embiid, Jokic, Giannis) have all won the award.  I don't like Dallas enough to think Luka will win.  I'm picking Tatum

·         ROY?  Even finishing last in the West, Wembayana will impress enough to win the ROY

·         Finals?  There will be a shakeup in the playoffs, but I do think Boston is built to thrive in the postseason.  The West is a crapshoot; I'm picking Phoenix but won't bet heavily on it (they are two injuries away from the lottery; they are also a healthy year away from winning it all)

       Going with the Celtics to win the title.  After all, Boston's been without a championship long enough.

Going for Title #18