Tuesday, July 18, 2023

Spitballing the future

 As I type this, the Screen Actors Guild (SAG) and the Writers Guild of America (WGA) are on strike.  This looks like it might be a long strike.  There are issues about compensation and residuals from streaming services- but those will likely be resolved when both the strikes and the Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers (AMPTP) find a number that is acceptable by all parties.

The more significant issue is about the us of Artifical Intelligence (AI) to replace both the actors  and the writers, without compensation.  From the striker's point of view, AI can potentially be used to replace them, costing their careers.  

We've already seem films where special effects have recreated dead actors to have parts in the film- and dead actors do not get paid.  If studios could replace the actors and writers with AI, they would.  

Is this the future of Hollywood?



Is the technology at a point where the fear is realistic?  Maybe not- but the studios certainly act like it's possible.  As a general rule, if the technology exists, it will be used.

Ever since the 19th Century, there has been a fear that technology would replace workers.  In general, with every technology development, some jobs are lost- but more jobs are created.  The computer cost thousand of typists their jobs- and created thousands more for programmers.  

Is AI going to be different?  I don't know.  Technology has made life better for billions of people- and in theory, there will be a point where technology does so much of our work that fewer people need to actually work (or the same number of people work fewer hours).  If- when- we reach that point, we need to rethink the entire world's economy.

Capitalism is the best economic system available because it does the best job encouraging growth.  But if we have reached the point when the technology can provide everyone with their needs, then Capitalism is no longer needed.

I recenlty heard a great phrase- "Rodenberry Socialist".  Based on the world of Star Trek, technology has met the needs for everyone.  We are not at that world yet, and will likely not be close in a hundred years.  But with AI, and three-dimensional printing... we can see the path where something like that is possible.

But that is in the future.  The future may be wonderful, but the current road is bumpy- especially for the strikers.