Thoughts with Whiskey: 2025-09-12

Our beverage tonight:  Weller Antique 107.  Not bad, but I prefer the Weller Reserve (green bottle), which is a great tasting Wheat Bourbon.

Where to begin...

- Yesterday was the 24th anniversary of 9/11 (and the 25th anniversay will be a couple of months after the USA celebrates our 250th birthday), and Charlie Kirk was assassinated earlier this week.  Not a particularly great week for the country.  

Kirk left behind a wife and two children under the age of three.  You don't have to agree with Kirk to think that it's fucked up that he was shot for expressing his views.

Part of the deal of being American is Freedom of Speech.  People say what they like, and we don't arrest or hurt them for what they say.  Yell, argue, call someone an idiot- but anytime someone gets attacked for expressing their views, it's anti-American.  

I didn't like a lot of what Kirk said.  But I liked the fact that he was willing to go to colleges and argue his beliefs.  

I don't talk much politics anymore.  Up until now, I've chalked it up to the idea that neither party really represents me, and that debating doesn't lead to any actual insight, just pointless arguing.  But now I'm wondering if part of it is cowardice- I don't want to upset my friends by disagreeing with them.  Or strangers.  And if the implied message of the shooting of Charlie Kirk is "Don't speak up... or else."  Then the proper response is to speak up twice as loud.

(speech over.  I'll move onto lighter subjects now)

- Gene editing technology is showing promise to cure diabetes.  The potential for mRNA is limitless in what it can possibly do.  This might actually lead to the cure for cancer, dementia, neurogenerative diseases like ALS.

I recently invested in the stock market in an ETF of genetic companies like CRISPR technologies.  I am optimistic about the future of medicine.

- In fact, I really wish we'd take half the money given to AI and spend it on Gene editing; I suspect it could advance cure by years if not decades.

I'm an AI-skeptic.  I don't think it's a fraud (like I do with Cryptocurrency).  But it's overblown, and certainly not worth the billions of dollars that has been invested in it.  Right now, it's nothing more than a slightly more user-friendly search engine.  Cute, but not a significant technological advance to us.

And if it does turn out to deliver what has been promised... and take over a large number of the jobs... then what?  You can't have a world where 50% of the population is not just unemployed but unemployable.  

I suspect a lot of people who are investing in AI are thinking of the benefits without thinking seriously about the consequences.  And that's if it delivers; much more like, the investment will be wasted.

- OK, time to actually get lighter in subjects:

- The Pink Floyd music retrospective is nearing the end- only three more studio albums left.  It's been a fascinating review.  My plan is to pick another artist in 2026, but I'm not sure who to pick.  

- The Kawhi Leonard story continues to amaze me.  First, Pablo Torre may be doing the best reporting in any field right now.  This is the second significant story that he's broken with a lot of evidence.  

Second, the NBA has to come down hard on the Clippers, even if there isn't more of a 'smoking gun'.  If they don't, they have just approved a blueprint for a salary cap workaround for every team in the NBA.  The NBA will be like MLB- which is great if you want to see the same six teams contend every year.  

I'm going to predict the NBA will hurt the Clippers- maybe not five 1st round draft picks, but at least 3, and possibly suspend Steve Ballmer from interacting with the team for a couple of years.   

Spitballing the future

 As I type this, the Screen Actors Guild (SAG) and the Writers Guild of America (WGA) are on strike.  This looks like it might be a long strike.  There are issues about compensation and residuals from streaming services- but those will likely be resolved when both the strikes and the Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers (AMPTP) find a number that is acceptable by all parties.

The more significant issue is about the us of Artifical Intelligence (AI) to replace both the actors  and the writers, without compensation.  From the striker's point of view, AI can potentially be used to replace them, costing their careers.  

We've already seem films where special effects have recreated dead actors to have parts in the film- and dead actors do not get paid.  If studios could replace the actors and writers with AI, they would.  

Is this the future of Hollywood?

Is the technology at a point where the fear is realistic?  Maybe not- but the studios certainly act like it's possible.  As a general rule, if the technology exists, it will be used.

Ever since the 19th Century, there has been a fear that technology would replace workers.  In general, with every technology development, some jobs are lost- but more jobs are created.  The computer cost thousand of typists their jobs- and created thousands more for programmers.  

Is AI going to be different?  I don't know.  Technology has made life better for billions of people- and in theory, there will be a point where technology does so much of our work that fewer people need to actually work (or the same number of people work fewer hours).  If- when- we reach that point, we need to rethink the entire world's economy.

Capitalism is the best economic system available because it does the best job encouraging growth.  But if we have reached the point when the technology can provide everyone with their needs, then Capitalism is no longer needed.

I recenlty heard a great phrase- "Rodenberry Socialist".  Based on the world of Star Trek, technology has met the needs for everyone.  We are not at that world yet, and will likely not be close in a hundred years.  But with AI, and three-dimensional printing... we can see the path where something like that is possible.

But that is in the future.  The future may be wonderful, but the current road is bumpy- especially for the strikers.  

Crowning Moment of Awesome- 09/03/2012

I love seeing the future.  I love it even more when it looks like the Original Star Wars movie.