2023: Predictions and Hopes

 In less than 36 hours, we change over to the new year.  I will celebrate the new year by crossing the Wilford Brimley-Coccon line.

Here are my predictions for what the next twelve months will bring.  The actual key predictions will be underlined.  As always, these are just the ramblings of the author- please do not rely on them when making any decisions, especially financial ones:

1)  Three technologies- Artificial Intelligence, Fusion Energy, and Genetic Editing- will continue to make progress.  In each case, there will be advancements (genetic editing is already being used to treat genetic diseases.) Also in each case, there will be a backlash that will develop, becoming one more front on the US culture war

2)  The Ukraine-Russia war will continue throughout 2023.  As Russia gets caught in a stalemate, they will focus on putting pressure on the Western nations to force Ukraine to come to peace talks, painting Ukraine as the villain if Ukraine won't just give up 'some' of their country.

China, eying Taiwan, is watching closely.  Any sign of weakness on the part of the West will encourage them to find a pretense to invade Taiwan.

3) The US just had their 2022 elections- which means they will gear up for the 2024 Presidential elections.  Each party is facing an existential crisis that will just start heating up over the next year.

The Democrats will need to decide if they trust Joe Biden (who turned 80 last month) as President for four more years.  Someone who is not considered a top tier contender will challenge him on the Democratic side, and every public stumble will have the voters consider throwing their support behind the challenger.   

4)  The GOP needs to decide if they will break off their toxic relationship with Donald Trump.  I think the GOP Establishment saw enough in 2022 to know how toxic he is.  The Establishment will discourage any other contenders from running to anoint Florida Governor Ron DeSantis as the frontrunner to defeat Trump in the primaries and go after Biden in 2024 (much like the Democratics did with Biden in 2020).

5)  Let's go with some more lighthearted areas to wrap this up:

* The Buffalo Bills will defeat the Philadelphia Eagles to win their first Super Bowl Title

* The Boston Celtics will defeat the Denver Nuggets to win the NBA Title

* The Los Angeles Dodgers will defeat the New York Yankees to win the World Series

* "Everything Everywhere All At Once" will win the best Picture of the Year

We will check back in twelve months to see how the predictions fared.

Be well.

GOP- what do you stand for?

 "(They) never miss an opportunity to miss an opportunity."

Israeli diplomat Abba Eban was talking about the Arabs.  But right now, that quote is how I feel about the Republican Party.

Last week, Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky visited the US.   And many (Though thankfully not all) on the right used this as an opportunity to... attack Zelensky.  Examples.  Are.  Plentiful.  

....

....

Umm... guys?  Speaking as a longtime Reagan fan here:  If you can't be accused of being a warmongering savage who wants to nuke the world to stop the evil commies.... what's the point of being a Republican?

Anyone who thinks today's Republicans are cut from the same cloth as the Buckley/Goldwater/Reagan Conservative movement that dominated the GOP from the 1960's through 2000's aren't paying attention.

The 1980's Conservative movement was dominated by four cornerstones:

1)  A strong military built up to stop the Soviet Union

2)  Lower taxes and reduced regulation to help businesses, along with increased free trade

3)  A smaller government in size and scope, encouraging less dependency on the state

4)  The Moral Majority- fighting cultural issues like pornography, abortion, etc.

At times, the cornerstones clashed (given a choice between lower taxes and smaller government, taxes won out every single time).  But the Republican Party stood for something, whether you agreed with it or not.

(Side note:  The Democrat Party, now and back then, didn't have four cornerstones.  They had fifty different groups all pushing for different agendas.  It's not coherent or consistent, but it is a working model)

But now, in 2022?  The Soviet Union collapsed.  Today's right wing seems to have no appetite for a bigger military or a smaller government.

OK, fine... the issues of 2022 are not the same as the issues of 1982.  Trying to keep the exact same platform will likely result in losing.

So what does the Republican Party stand for?  Not the rhetoric- what are they actually willing to vote on and risk losing their seats to support?

I don't know the answer- and I pay enough attention that I should know the answer.  

I've heard people complain about partisanship being high.  I don't mind that- partisanship is always high.  What's different, in my humble opinion, is that the partisanship isn't about anything.  And, ironically, because it's about so little, it makes the vitriol much worse.

Another quote- "Academic politics is the most vicious and bitter form of politics, because the stakes are so low."   That's how I feel about the parties now.  They don't really argue about anything, so the fights are more vicious.

Which party wants to help Ukraine more?  Which party is actually willing to raise taxes?  In the past decade, both parties have had times when they controlled both parts of Congress and the Presidency.  And both times, they find excuses not to do anything significant.  

I don't write about politics anymore (current post being an exception), because it doesn't mean anything.  I don't think either party stands for anything except whatever current trend makes them popular enough to win re-election. 

There's an election coming up in 2024 (there's always another election).  It's an opportunity for the GOP to define what they stand for.  But I fear it's just another opportunity to miss an opportunity. 

Wrapping up 2022; The year we found out.

 2022... what a decade this year has been.

Possibly that's not fair.  It does feel like this year lasted forever, but it's certainly better than 2020 (aka the Plague Year)

If the year had a theme, it feels like this was the year many assumptions over the past decade were called out, faced reality, and did not do well.  Some examples:

- The country of Russia under Putin, which has been portrayed as a World Power, invaded Ukraine and has done poorly against a country that is a fraction of their size.  It seems like the world is in the middle of an experiment... can they put enough pressure on an invading country to leave, without sending troops and escalating the war?  

- The 'genius' of Elon Musk, who bought Twitter for $44 billion (that's $44,000,000,000.00) and became an embarassment as a consequence for his purchase

- Cryptocurrency.  Sam Bankman-Fried, another proclaimed 'genius', has been charged with fraud and has over $8 billion of customer's money is nowhere to be found.  I could never understand cryptocurrency enough to invest in it, but so many people vouched for it that I wondered if there was something I was missing.  Too much fraud has shown Crypto to be a paper tiger.

- The Republican Party.  They spent 2022 replaying the same playbook they did in 2016, and it was a disaster for them.  The economy is doing poorly, the voters are unhappy with the direciton of the country- and they'd still rather give the Democrats another couple of years rather than turn the Seante over to the GOP.  Both parties need to decide what it is exactly that they stand for- but this is especially true for the GOP.  And they don't have much time- the 2024 Presidential election is already underway.

There's a saying of "Fuck Around and Find Out".  Well, 2022 seems to be the year we found out.

So, in a lot of ways, the hype of certain groups was held up to the light, and failed.  Hopefully, we've learned our lessons about listening to the hype without asking questions.

Then again, a Venutre Capital firm just gave Adam Neumann $350 million.  Some people just don't learn.

On a personal level, the housing renovations of 2021 was completed, and the year was spent setting up the new house.  It's gone well.  

I'm looking forward to 2023, and hope it brings joy and happiness to everyone.  Be well.