2020: The Year in Review

My summary of 2020:  Kill it with fire.

I've had years that were for me personally- one of my closest friends dying suddenly in her 40's.  The next year, one of my oldest childhood friends passed away.  

The world has had recent years that we were in war and facing terrorism and economic collapse that seemed insurountable.  I can't say that 2020 has been the worst year since I've been alive.  But 2020 has certainly felt like the most depressing year since I've been alive.

COVID struck, killing over 300,000 Americans and over 1.8 million people so far.  My wife and I both caught COVID in October, but fortunately recovered.  

The world is making process on vaccines, and with some luck and skill, the world might be vaccinated from COVID to start getting back to 'normal'.  I put that in quotes because even when COVID abates, so much of our lives will be different from it was from 2019.  Businesses- and entire industries- that died because they couldn't get customers won't be coming back.  Many people (myself included) worked from home, and many of those people will continue to do so.  Epidemics like the 1918 flu and the Black Death changes the world and society, and COVID will also do so- permanently.

We'll adapt to the changes- we always do.  COVID is why 2020 was tragic.  But it wasn't why 2020 was depressing.

In the past, when disaster struck, we as a people bonded together.  The attacks on 9/11 were awful, but we as a country bonded together.  This year, we came across a new challenge- and broke apart.

The country is split between two teams and their defining characteristic is how much they despise the other team.

I always thought politics was like the Yankees-Red Sox rivalry... yeah, you 'hated' the other team.  But when there was a real problem, you ignored your rivalry.  That didn't happen this time.  

And I fear it will continue.  We've elected a new President, and part of me hopes that as Trump recedes in the eyes of everyone, this Culture War will lessen.  But I fear it won't- and I don't know what direction it will go in now.

And it just is exhausting.

Be well, everyone.  I'll try to be more optimistic next time.

Star Wars Thought: The wrong alliance

Finished season 2 of The Mandalorian (Short review-  it's awesome.  Longer review- it expanded the Star Wars Universe and managed to show characters who were shades of grey without going away from the themes of the Universe.  And the characters and stories were inrcredible.  Jon Favreau and Dave Filono are on the short list of creators I will trust with just about any franchise).

One thing I kept noticing- the Empire kept advocating 'Order'.  "Bringing Order to the Galaxy"- that was their justification for waging war on the Republic.  That's what the Empire believed- order over chaos.  Which makes sense.  

But that's not what the Sith believe.  The Sith believe that passion creates strength creates power creates victory (courtesy of Knights of the Old Republic 2).  The Sith don't care about Order, or Discipline... if anything, they advocate the exact opposite of it.

So why are they always allies?

For the original trilogy, and the prequels, the answer is- Emporer Palpatine.  Palpatine viewed the Empire and the Sith as tools to use for his cult of personality.  He told the Empire that he wanted to bring Order to the Universe, and he told Vader to embrace his feelings.  Vader thought he was using the Empire, the Empire thought they were using Vader- and both were being used by the Emporer.

But now that the Emperor is dead?  There's no reason for them to be working together.  The Mandalorian gets around this by not having any Sith.  Their opponents are only the Empire.

But the Sequels (cue my rant about the failure that was the sequels)... they just put the First Order and Kylo Ren together.  And since Ren was the far more interesting character... really, the First Order was nothing more than scrubs for the heroes to level up on until they were ready to face Ren.

And that's a missed opportunity, in my mind.

What if the overall arc of the sequels had been a War between the First Order and the Sith?  Between Order and Chaos?  

It would have taken the sequels in a new direction instead of a rehash.

But wouldn't that have put the Republic- the heroes- on the sidelines?

Not necessarily.  The first movie could have had them acting as heroes trying to save the worlds caught in the crossfire of the Empire-Sith war.  The second movie shows Rey's training (the rebirth of the Jedi), as the Sith (Kylo Ren and his Knights) decimate the Empire...

... which forces the Empire to turn to the Republic for an alliance.

Because the Empire is about Order.  The Sith is about Passion.  The Republic is about Balance and Compassion.  

Which takes the Star Wars Universe to a different path and many more interesting stories.

NBA 2020-2021 Predictions

I took the year off last year because of NBA's stance supporting China.  I'm back this year.

Eastern Conference:

1.       Milwaukee

2.       Miami

3.       Toronto

4.       Boston

5.       Philadelphia

6.       Washington

7.       Brooklyn

8.       Atlanta

9.       Indiana

10.     Orlando

11.     Chicago

12.     Cleveland

13.     Detroit

14.     Charlotte

15.     New York

Playoffs:

·         Milwaukee over Atlanta, Miami over Brooklyn, Toronto over Washington, Philadelphia over Boston

·         Milwaukee over Philadelphia, Miami over Toronto

·         Milwaukee over Miami

Western Conference:

1.       LA Lakers

2.       LA Clippers

3.       Denver

4.       Dallas

5.       Utah

6.       Portland

7.       Phoenix

8.       Sacramento

9.       New Orleans

10.     Memphis

11.     Minnesota

12.     San Antonio

13.     Houston

14.     Golden State

15.     Oklahoma City

Playoffs:

·         Lakers over Sacramento, Phoenix over Clippers, Denver over Portland, Utah over Dallas

·         Lakers over Utah, Denver over Phoenix

·         Denver over Lakers

More notes:

·         The East is more dangerous than people realize.  Miami is dangerous, and Toronto is deep.  But I think this is Giannis' year.  No one in the East has an answer for him

·         The Lakers are the best team in the West... but they are still dependent on two superstars, and now on very short rest.  The Clippers are the deepest team, which is why I'm high on them in the regular season... but I think they are the team most likely to stumble in the playoffs.  I think Denver is sick of being ignored and may go on a rampage.

·         MVP?  The general preseason consensus is Luka Doncic.  If Dallas plays well, he will win

·         ROY?  Would love it to be Isaac Okoro.  But I think Tyrese Haliburton might have the easiest path.

·         Finals?  Two teams desperate to overcome their past.  Denver is deep... but Milwaukee has Giannis.  The Greek Freak wins his first title, 4 games to 2

·         James Harden is traded, but not until he's sunk Houston's season.  Don't know where he's going to

·       I'm very high on Washington (Westbrook and Beal are a great combination, and they have depth), and very low on Brooklyn (Durant is awesome- but if there ever was a team that looked great on paper that lacked the teamwork, it's them)

Cleveland Cavaliers- 2020-21 NBA Season preview

Tonight, the Cleveland Cavaliers play their first preseason game since March 10, 2020.  It's good to see them back.

They weren't a great team last year, and they most likely won't be a great team this year.  They are too young in the backcourt, they still need to learn to defend, their best player is injury-prone... there's a reason they only won 19 games last year.  

It's frustrating being a fan of a small market team in the NBA.  The best players only want to play for major markets, leading to a NBA that has 10 great teams and 20 versions of the Washington Generals.  And when a small market team does develope a great player, there's a countdown until that player leaves via free agency.  It's frustrating.

But at this point in the team's progress, that's not an issue.  Instead, we're seeing the journey and hoping this team can come together and improve.

They have players that can step forward- Sexton, Garland, Okoro, Windler, KPJ.  Drummond is an excellent player who is, unfortuantely, playing in an era that works against his skillset.  Love, when healthy, can still play well.

But I think the single most important person for the Cavaliers next year is J.B. Bickerstaff.  If Sexton or Garland step up, the team will do well.  But if Bickerstaff coaches these players well- defines their roles and puts them in a place where they can succeed- then all of the young players can improve.  It may not show in the standings this year, but it will show eventually.

The win total this year will not be fun.  But the journey might be.  

NBA 2020 Draft booking

 

My Crazy Dream Booking:  Top 4 go Edwards-Wiseman-Okongwu-Toppin.  Cavs trade #5 to the Knicks for #8 and a (top 10 protected) first rounder in 2021.  Knicks grab Ball at #5.  Hawks grab Avjadi at 6, Detroit grabs Hayes at 7, and the Cavs grab Isaac Okoro or Devin Vassell at #8.

What Should Happen: Top 4 go Edwards-Wiseman-Ball-Hayes.  Cavs grab Deni Avjadi at #5

What Will Happen: Top 4 are Edwards-Wiseman-Ball-Avjadi.  Cleveland takes Isaac Okoro at #5

What I’m Terrified Will Happen: Top 4 are Edwards-Wiseman-Ball-Avjadi. Cleveland takes Toppin at #5 (Toppin has his advantages.  But he will be the third top draft pick in a row with defensive issues.  I don't see that helping the Cavs)

If I Was Booking This And I Hated You: Cavs take Toppin, overpay to re-sign Thompson, and have five front court players and no defensive wings.  

The bullet the US Dodged... and the remaining bullet

 The definition of fascism, courtesy of Merriam-Webster:

"a political philosophy, movement, or regime (such as that of the Fascisti) that exalts nation and often race above the individual and that stands for a centralized autocratic government headed by a dictatorial leader, severe economic and social regimentation, and forcible suppression of opposition"

In some ways, Trump has been a fascist.  He demonizes his opponents to the point of calling for their suppression (He's twice led chants of "Lock Her Up ", for two different political opponents, four years apart).  He's constantly attacking the media.  He's questioning the electoral process before the votes have even been counted.

But in many key ways, Trump is not a fascist.  He hasn't made a power grab.  And a pandemic is a perfect storm to make such a power grab.  Trump could have closed the borders, killed all trade with China, and force the states to accept whatever safety measures the federal government deemed were necessary on the argument that it was to protect the nation... and the nation would have gone along with it. 

Why didn't he?  My own pet theory... Trump doesn't want power.  He wants adulation. He wants people to act subordinate to him, at all times, under all conditions.  And that's all he wants.

So, assuming he'll lose in November, he'll use the pulpit to clain he was robbed, that he was a great President, that outside forces were out to get him, that he was cheated... and then he'll leave.  He doesn't want the power of the Presidency.  He wants the aura of the Presidency.

So he'll leave, and we'll have escaped the Trump Presidency.  We could have gone fascist, and we didn't.  The country dodged a bullet.

But...

I don't think Biden's a fascist by any means (in fact, I think he is much more Conservative than Trump- certainly more respectful of traditions and the Constitution).  But I think the Trump Presidency revealed that there are a lot of people who, if they had been in Trump's place, would have pushed the US to a fascist state in their desire to improve it.  

(And yes, I think it's both sides.  If you think the Pandemic should explain why the President should grant Medicare for All by fiat, bypassing Congress- that's fascist and tyrannical)

The Trump Presidency has revealed how much contempt the two sides have for each other- and how little respect they have for the other side.

Politics is about reaching compromise between groups with different agendas.  It involves trading, making deals, and working within the system.  If your only plan is to destroy the opposition so you can implement your programs unimpeded... that's not politics.  That's war.

With Trump, we peered down the abyss of fascism.  My fear is that, instead of backing away, someone will encourage the country to jump.

NBA Finals 2020

Congrats to the Lakers for winning the NBA title.  And a great showing by the Miami Heat (though I can't stand the franchise, I concede their skill as a great team)

With his fourth NBA Title, The LeBron/Jordan GOAT battle is back... a few thoughts:

1) I still think it's a three way battle, with Bill Russell (11 championships) as a viable contender

2) Jordan's major advantage... 6-0. He never lost. And it never felt like he was in serious danger of losing.

3) LeBron's advantage... he's won as the best player on three completely differently rosters, with different coaches. Jordan always has the same core.

4) I still believe LeBron faced tougher competition in the finals than Jordan did. Jordan never faced anyone like the 2013-2014 Spurs or the 2015-2018 Warriors

Conceding my biases.... I think this title gives LeBron the edge.

My top 10 all time basketball rankings
1) LeBron James
2) Michael Jordan
3) Bill Russell
4) Tim Duncan
5) Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
6) Magic Johnson
7) Larry Bird
8) Kobe Bryant
9) Hakeem Olajuwon
10) Jerry West

(and yes, Wilt isn't on the list)

NBA Draft lottery 2020

 Well, the Cleveland Cavaliers did not have good luck this draft lottery- falling from #2 to #5.  Last year, that was not good- I really wanted Zion Williamson (who went #1 to New Orleans) or Ja Morant (who went #2 to Minnesota).  Instead the Cavs drafted Darius Garland, who is a work in process.  I can't get a read on his ceiling as a player.

This year, the draft is a muddle- a combination of COVID cancelling the NCAA tournament and just an apparent lack of a franchise type player.  I've seen 5-7 players in the mock draft going #1 (now going to the Minnesota Timberwolves).  The last draft like this was 2013, which was a disaster for the Cleveland Cavaliers.  They drafted Anthony Bennett with the #1 pick, and he flamed out of the league quickly.

I think the Cavaliers need to play it safe- they have young talent but some obvious holes.  Specifically, I see them needing a good wing player who can play defense.  The last two years they've drafted small guards who need the ball to be successful.  This year, I think they need athletic wings who can and will play defense.

So for the #5 pick, my preference is for them to draft one of these three players:

1A- Devin Vassell (SF, Florida State)

1B- Deni Avdija (F, Maccabi Tel Aviv)

2- Isaac Okoro (SF, Auburn)

I think these players are good, fill a big hole, and can work well with the team they have already drafted.  

Thoughts with Bourbon: Rank Punditry (VP Pick) edition

 Making a prediction and locking it in on August 7th, 2020:

Susan Rice will be Joe Biden's Vice President.

(Note:  This will likely be proven right or wrong within the week.  If it's wrong... it won't be the first time I've made a bad judgement).

Here's my reasoning:

1)  Biden guaranteed back in March that he would pick a female VP.  This could be seen as grovelling- or it could be that he already knew who his VP was going to be, and since he already had it locked in, why not make the guarantee?

2)  Biden, I think, wants a VP who will act like him when Biden was President Obama's VP- a trusted advosr, the last person in the room before the President makes his decision.  From what I understand, Rice and Biden got along very well during the Obama adminsitration.  If Biden trusts her, he could see her fulfilling the role he played for President Obama.

3)  Biden wants to make 'his' pick.  If he picks Harris or Duckworth, he will be seen as caving to pressue.  There is no good political reason to pick Rice- therefore, if she is chosen, it must be because he believes she is the best person qualified for the job.

Now, the big question- is she?

She's a former National Security Advisor and former Ambassdor to the UN.  Her credentials in foreign affairs are serious and legitimate.  

The bad news is that she's never run for elected office, and she lost the opportunity be Secretary of State because of the Benghazi debacle.  No one really knows how she'll react under the spotlight of a national election.

Politically, I think she's a poor choice because she doesn't have elected experience, and because the GOP will bring up Benghazi for several months.  The paradox is that, while I think she's a poor political choice, my respect for Biden will increase.  There's no reason to pick Rice for VP (as opposed to Secretary of State) unless he truly believes she's the best person for the job.

Biden's 78.  At his age, who his Vice President is carries significant weight.  Susan Rice wouldn't be my choice- but I think she will be Biden's.

Thoughts with Scotch: Quarantine Edition

Been a couple of months since I posted.   A few random thoughts:

* I'm watching "The Wire" and halfway through Season 3.  I've heard many people praise it as the greatest show of all time- and I might end up agreeing with them.  The stories and the characters are fantastic.  I loved "Homicide:  Life on the Streets", and that show seems like the warm-up for this show.

* My weight was going up, but I'm working on my diet again.  Over a year on a Pescetarian diet, and no craving for meat.  

* No sports to discuss, and the sports podcasts I listen to are focussed on the Michael Jordan documentary.  I don't disagree that he's not the great basketball player of all time.  I just don't want to watch a 10 episode documentary on him.  

* Collecting the 2020 Topps Heritage set, which is styled after my favorite baseball card set of all time (the Topps 1971 set).  I suspect this will be the last individual set I put together;  after this, I will look for collecting certain players or mini sets.

* I've given up trying to post or even comment on world events.  I'm too tire and frustrated, and for my own sanity I'm working on the things I can.  I'm ignoring the forest for the trees, because I can do something about the trees.

Be well and stay safe, everyone

Thoughts with Whiskey: Politics

I've been drinking some Aberlour Scotch and cursing trade wars and thinking...

1)  This week, I'm getting a vasectomy.  I'm making jokes about it (the wife keeps referring to the "Cone of Shame", and I've made comments form 'Gonads to 'Gone-ads').  I'm not worried about it (I've had a kidney taken it- this should, in theory, be a piece of cake), but I admit a little bit forlorn.  I'm almost 48; I know I'm too old to be a father.  And I knew years ago that I wasn't going to be one, and that I'd probably be too lenient to be a good father.  But there are still regrets, and the thoughts of "What if...".  

2)  Changing to something less personal... I'm watching High Fidelity on Hulu, and highly recommend it.  The movie was great, and I think the series is even better.  Zoe Kravitz is awesome in the Rob role

3)  The next debate is tonight.  Honestly unless something happens in the next week, I suspect Bernie Sanders will be the Democratic Nominee.  Which sucks from my point of view, because I think both candidates are so awful that neither deserve my vote.  I'll abstain, hope from gridlock, and get a pre-boarding ticket for the Nikki Haley 2024 bandwagon.

4)  I might as well post it here to put extra pressure of myself- my goal in 2020 is to finish the book I've started.  When it's complete, I'll be asking for beta readers.

And on that note, time for me to finish my drink and head.  Peace, my friends.

Political Game Theory: Biden's move

At the moment, according to FiveThirtyEight, Bernie Sanders is likely to win a plurality of the delegates but not a majority.  Bernie has a rock-solid base of 15-25% of voters who will support him no matter what.  The rest of the voters are split among the other candidates.

This is very similar to 2016's GOP Primary.  Trump had a rock-solid base, and the other candidates split the votes.  Since the GOP primaries are winner-take-all, Trump built up a large delegate lead even though he rarely won any states with over 50% of the votes.  

Because the Democratic primaries are proportional (if you get above 15%), Bernie isn't on pace to build that type of delegate lead- but if he wins a plurality by the convention, it will be difficult to not award him the nomination.

The other candidates have a classic Prisoner's Dilemma.  Any one of the could likely beat Bernie if it was one-on-one.  But all of them want to be that one.  So they need the others to drop out.  But none of them have any incentive to drop out to help the other.

So here's where someone needs to cut a deal.  If I were Joe Biden, I would be making two phone calls today.

The first is to Senator Elizabeth Warren, with a simple deal, "Bow out an publicly support me.  I will make you Secretary of the Treasury.  You will have the authority to reform Wall Street and the Banking System.  I will be focusing on so many issues that I will defer to your expertise on fixing the economy."

Will that work?  Possibly.  Senator Warren has to know she's a long shot at this point, and this would put her in a position to implement a lot of the reforms she believes in.  

The other phone call is to Senator Amy Klobachur, "Senator, you've run a hell of a campaign.  But it's time for us to join together to beat Trump.  Join me as my Vice President.  We both believe in the same policies.  And I'm 74 years old- I don't expect to run a second term.  You'll be in the driver's seat to win in 2024."

And end it with a little bit of arm-twisting, "If you're not interested, I'll call Pete Buttigieg and see if he'll take the deal instead."

Again, will it work?  Biden is 74.  And while it's very tough for one party to win three elections in a row, winning a second- especially if Biden steps down and makes Klobachur his heir apparent- is a good spot.

Mayor Mike Bloomberg has said that the other candidates should drop out so he can challenge Sanders.  But he's not giving them any reason to do so.  In this idea, Biden is offering something of value to two candidates to join him.  He's cutting a deal.

He's doing what a good politician should do.

Political Thought: Primary voters

The New Hampshire Primaries are today.  The number I'm curious about isn't who wins, but the total number of primary voters.

In 2016, there were 253,062 votes for the Democratic Primary.  In 2008, there were 287,557 vote for the Democratic Primary.  In 2004, it was just under 218,000 votes for the Democratic Primary.  

This year, there are multiple candidates on the Democratic Primary, and it's an election where they are trying to vote out a disliked incumbent President.  

New Hampshire voted Democrat in the 2016 election, but it was close- 46.7% to 46.25%.  For the Democrats to win in 2020, they need to keep all of the states they won and flip some of the others.

In theory, passions are running high- not only for their candidate among the Democrats, but to vote out President Trump.

The turnout in the Iowa Caucus was low- but Iowa had so many problems that I'm not sure it's a good example.  But if New Hampshire has a low turnout under these circumstances- a close Primary election in a year they should be passionate about throwing out the President- then I would be very worried that too many voters have just tuned out completely.

Baseball Card Thoughts

Topps has released their 2020 baseball cards.  I have my $0.11 on them...

1st- they are beautiful- but to me, it's a sterile beauty.  Take a look at these two baseball cards:

The one on the left is the 2018 Mike Trout from Topps; the one of the right is the 2020 Mike Trout.  The pictures are stunning- but the cards are too similar.  Both borderless, both of the same in-game moment.  Except for the helmet, you could have told me that they were from the same at-bat, and I'd have believed you.

Below is an example from almost 50 years ago;  The 1971 Topps Johnny Bench and the 1973 Bench.  They look different; not only is one a pose while the other is in-game, but just the feel of the cards are different.  Each year had a different redesign.  You can pick out a 1971 Topps from a 1972 from a 1973... it made collecting the cards more special.

Cards have also become a legalized lottery.  Packs are expensive (my 3 packs were $2.99 apiece for 16 cards), but they all have special inserts that, in theory, could be sold for more money.  I fear we are at a stage where no one collects and everyone invest, at which point the market will fall out.  There's also so many sets that trying to be a completionist is impossible

I'm not an investor; I collect for fun. I'll pick a small group and work on them.  

One set I do want to collect is the 2020 Topps Heritage Set.  The Heritage sets have the layouts of years past, and this one is the 1971 Topps (the black bordered cards).  I want to do this the old-fashioned way; opening up a few packs at a time, putting the set together manually.  It's a bad investment- but it'll appeal to my inner 11 year old.

The Big Short

One of the books I received this Christmas was Michael Lewis' book The Big Short.  I actually think this is one of the most important books of the last decade, and it was made into a movie.  Which, for a book about esoteric financial transactions, is pretty amazing.

The book does a great job describing what the hell happened in the 2008 financial crisis, better than anything else I have read or seen.  I'd really recommend seeing the movie or reading the book, but if you want my interpretation (which is like asking a child to describe the Mona Lisa), it's this:

We encouraged a bunch of people to buy houses they couldn't afford with financial gimmicks (subprime mortgages).  Then the banks repackages these as bonds, used tricks to make the bonds seem a lot more secure on paper than they actually were, and ended up being so leveraged that when the housing market collapsed, it took down a large number of banks.  

I'm still not sure what amount of this was criminal and what percentage was just blind stupidity.  I think it's mainly stupidity; the banks told themselves that the housing market never fell that badly, so they basically bet everything that it never would.  

I'm a capitalist by nature, and still reading about this both shocks and angers me.  Shocks me in that these banks could be so blind that they didn't realize what they were doing;  angers me in that I'm still not sure they learned their lesson.

RIP Neil Peart

Among the engineering students when I was at college, Rush was the band- the combination of Rock and Roll Sound with incredible lyrics and music that was so complex it was incredible that it only came from three band members.  If Rock's basic equation was "Three Chords and the Truth", Rush was the AP Calculus.

Neil Peart, the drummer, passed away from brain cancer at 67 today.  Besides being the drummer, he also wrote most of the lyrics.  Like the music, there was a depth to them that is astounding.  Just one example (from "The Pass", my favorite Rush song):

All of us get lost in the darkness

Dreamers learn to steer by the stars

All of us do time in the gutter

Dreamers turn to look at the cars

That struck a chord with me in a way most songs can't.

Rush was my favorite band, and I saw them several times.  They were so much more than that for my wife, who often credits the album "Presto" for saving her life during a down time.  We saw the band several times, and even briefly appear on their R40 DVD.

Thank you for sharing your gifts with the world, Mr. Peart.