Holy hell... the Cavs got the #1 pick!
For anyone complaining about this... the Cavs didn't tank, they tried to win, but a combination of factors, they failed. The had a 1.7% chance of winning, and luck favored them. Considering the amount of bad luck Cleveland has had sports wise, it seems really whiny for any fan who has had their team win a championship in my lifetime to complain about this.
So- now that the Cavs have the #1 pick, what do they do? I have a few recommendations, as a lifelong fan.
Rule #1: LeBron James is not coming back to Cleveland.
Rule #2: LeBron James is not coming back to Cleveland.
Rule #3: LeBron James is not coming back to Cleveland. Whatever decision you make, please do let any dreams of James rejoining this team be a factor. James has chosen his path, and I wish him well. But he is not coming back to Northeast Ohio. THe goal is to win, not to get King James back to Cleveland.
Rule #4: Do not attempt to trade for Kevin Love unless he agrees to sign an extension. I like Kevin Love, and think he is a top 10 player in the NBA. But he has one year left on his contract, and all statements indicate he is going to free agency. More power to him- but if the Cavs are thinking about trading for him, he's a one year rental unless he agrees otherwise. A one year rental is not worth the #1 pick in this draft.
Rule #5: Kyrie Irving (and Tristan Thompson) can sign an extension in July. He should be offered a max extension. Nate Silver argues that Kyrie is not worth a max contract, and I can see his reasoning. However, he is forgetting two important factors:
* The NBA is making money, and the trend indicates the salary cap is rising- meaning a max contract today may not be worth a max contract three years from now.
* There is an opportunity cost- if the Cavs lose Kyrie Irving by not signing him to a max contract, where are they going to get a player of his caliber?
So offer him a max. He either signs it (yay), or refuses, in which case he needs to be put on the trading block, and the team needs to accept not having him. I hope he stays, but I'm not rooting for a player who doesn't want to be here.
Rule #6: Pick a direction and determine your coach, free agents, and draft picks around that. Assuming Kyrie stays (and for a max contract, he should), there are two directions that clearly work.
* Full run & gun. In that case, hire a coach who fits the run & gun style (George Karl, Mike D'Antoni, Alvin Gentry, or a college or assistant coach with this mindset). That's my top choice. Then draft Wiggins, re-sign Spencer Hawes, and go with a lineup of:
- PG: Kyrie Irving
- SG: Dion Waiters
- C: Spencer Hawes
- PF: Tristan Thompson
- SF: Andrew Wiggins
- Bench: Anderson Varejao, Anthony Bennett, CJ Miles, Jarrett Jack, Matthew Dellanova
Constant running, stagger everybody's minutes so no one goes about 30 minutes, and try to win 140-130
* More standard lineup. Hire a coach the team will listen to (Lionel Hollins comes to mind), draft Joel Embiid with the #1 pick, lose Hawes, find the best SF you can in the free agent market.
I think this one is harder to pull off given the Cav's current lineup. It has two advantages over the run and gun style, though:
- If Healthy, Joel Embiid has a higher ceiling than Andrew Wiggins. But with his back, that 'if' will always be a question
- No run and gun team has ever won a NBA title; Phoenix came close but never made the finals even.
* To be honest, I'm torn here. I think the second path requires more rework of the team, but might have a higher chance of success. But the run & gun team would be fun to watch. And because I'm worried about Embiid's back, that's the direction I'm leaning towards.
* Also, if Kyrie indicates he's not signing even a max contract? Draft Embiid and go the standard path. I'm a Dion Waiters fan, but we need two great guards to pull this off, and I don't know where we get that second guard.
Sunday, May 25, 2014
Saturday, May 10, 2014
Seriously???
According to ESPN and Grantland writer Bill Simmons, "God Hates Cleveland". It's a popular meme because SO MANY awful things happen to sports teams. The last time any of their three major professional sports team any title was in 1964, and most NFL fans don't count championships before the Super Bowl (which started five years later).
Just some of our "highlights":
* An NBA owner who was so incompetent that the NBA gave the team draft picks when he sold the team, and established a rule named after him to prevent an owner from making trades as badly as he did
* "Red Right 88"
* "The Drive"
* "The Fumble"
* We just need better players? We had LeBron James. James quit on the team during the 2010 playoffs, then took less money because he wanted to party on South Beach instead of playing for his hometown fans.
* LeBron didn't have any good teammates, you say? Meet Carlos Boozer. The Cavs drafted him in the second round, and he was turning into a potential all star power forward. He was under conctract for one more year, so the Cavs and him had a handshake deal to release him from that contract in excahnge for signing a long term deal. The Cavs released him, and Boozer stabbed the Cavs in the back by signing with the Utah Jazz instead.
* We just need better coaches? We had Bill Belichick. He made all of his mistakes with the Browns, then decided to turn into a coaching genius on his NEXT NFL job
* Losing the 1995 World Series. Atlanta, during their run in the 90s, only won one world series, despite winning the pennant five times. Ah well- at least Atlanta is a real club...
* ... unlike the Florida Marlins, who bought a bunch of free agents and somehow won the 1997 World Series. I would have MUCH rather lost to the Yankees or Red Sox, and I don't like either team.
* And then there's Art Modell. Despite one of the most loyal fan bases in the country and a bill to improve Municipal Stadium, Modell stabbed the city in the back, stole the team, and moved it to Baltimore. You'd think fans of the former Colts would have not wanted to steal another team, but there it is. Cleveland had no football for four years, then was rewarded with an expansion team run by morons.
And to top it all off, the Modell's Browns never made it to the Super Bowl- but Modell's Ravens have won it twice now.
* To show you how bad the new expansion, I give you this: It's a list of all of the Cleveland Brown Quarterbacks since 1999. Not a pretty list.
So, with all of that background- the Browns had a good day on Thursday. They started out with the #4 pick and #26 pick, traded down, got an extra #1 for next year, picked up the best Cornerback in the draft and their newest Quarterback, Johnny Manziel. People are all over the map on how good Manziel will be in the NFL.
Now, at #4, people wanted to take Sammy Watkins. That was my choice. He is supposedly the best WR in the draft. Now, the Browns have one good WR- Josh Gordon- but they have been weak there otherwise.
But I liked the trade, and we have now have a better defense and a new QB. And we still have Gordon, right? Second best WR after Calvin Johnson? We should be good, right?
"God Hates Cleveland"
Josh Gordon is facing a year long suspension for multiple drug violations- this time for pot.
So now we have a new QB and no good wide receivers to throw too (I would love for Greg Little to prove me wrong here.)
Sigh.
Welcome to Cleveland.
Just some of our "highlights":
* An NBA owner who was so incompetent that the NBA gave the team draft picks when he sold the team, and established a rule named after him to prevent an owner from making trades as badly as he did
* "Red Right 88"
* "The Drive"
* "The Fumble"
* We just need better players? We had LeBron James. James quit on the team during the 2010 playoffs, then took less money because he wanted to party on South Beach instead of playing for his hometown fans.
* LeBron didn't have any good teammates, you say? Meet Carlos Boozer. The Cavs drafted him in the second round, and he was turning into a potential all star power forward. He was under conctract for one more year, so the Cavs and him had a handshake deal to release him from that contract in excahnge for signing a long term deal. The Cavs released him, and Boozer stabbed the Cavs in the back by signing with the Utah Jazz instead.
* We just need better coaches? We had Bill Belichick. He made all of his mistakes with the Browns, then decided to turn into a coaching genius on his NEXT NFL job
* Losing the 1995 World Series. Atlanta, during their run in the 90s, only won one world series, despite winning the pennant five times. Ah well- at least Atlanta is a real club...
* ... unlike the Florida Marlins, who bought a bunch of free agents and somehow won the 1997 World Series. I would have MUCH rather lost to the Yankees or Red Sox, and I don't like either team.
* And then there's Art Modell. Despite one of the most loyal fan bases in the country and a bill to improve Municipal Stadium, Modell stabbed the city in the back, stole the team, and moved it to Baltimore. You'd think fans of the former Colts would have not wanted to steal another team, but there it is. Cleveland had no football for four years, then was rewarded with an expansion team run by morons.
And to top it all off, the Modell's Browns never made it to the Super Bowl- but Modell's Ravens have won it twice now.
* To show you how bad the new expansion, I give you this: It's a list of all of the Cleveland Brown Quarterbacks since 1999. Not a pretty list.
So, with all of that background- the Browns had a good day on Thursday. They started out with the #4 pick and #26 pick, traded down, got an extra #1 for next year, picked up the best Cornerback in the draft and their newest Quarterback, Johnny Manziel. People are all over the map on how good Manziel will be in the NFL.
Now, at #4, people wanted to take Sammy Watkins. That was my choice. He is supposedly the best WR in the draft. Now, the Browns have one good WR- Josh Gordon- but they have been weak there otherwise.
But I liked the trade, and we have now have a better defense and a new QB. And we still have Gordon, right? Second best WR after Calvin Johnson? We should be good, right?
"God Hates Cleveland"
Josh Gordon is facing a year long suspension for multiple drug violations- this time for pot.
So now we have a new QB and no good wide receivers to throw too (I would love for Greg Little to prove me wrong here.)
Sigh.
Welcome to Cleveland.
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