Holy hell... the Cavs got the #1 pick!
For anyone complaining about this... the Cavs didn't tank, they tried to win, but a combination of factors, they failed. The had a 1.7% chance of winning, and luck favored them. Considering the amount of bad luck Cleveland has had sports wise, it seems really whiny for any fan who has had their team win a championship in my lifetime to complain about this.
So- now that the Cavs have the #1 pick, what do they do? I have a few recommendations, as a lifelong fan.
Rule #1: LeBron James is not coming back to Cleveland.
Rule #2: LeBron James is not coming back to Cleveland.
Rule #3: LeBron James is not coming back to Cleveland. Whatever decision you make, please do let any dreams of James rejoining this team be a factor. James has chosen his path, and I wish him well. But he is not coming back to Northeast Ohio. THe goal is to win, not to get King James back to Cleveland.
Rule #4: Do not attempt to trade for Kevin Love unless he agrees to sign an extension. I like Kevin Love, and think he is a top 10 player in the NBA. But he has one year left on his contract, and all statements indicate he is going to free agency. More power to him- but if the Cavs are thinking about trading for him, he's a one year rental unless he agrees otherwise. A one year rental is not worth the #1 pick in this draft.
Rule #5: Kyrie Irving (and Tristan Thompson) can sign an extension in July. He should be offered a max extension. Nate Silver argues that Kyrie is not worth a max contract, and I can see his reasoning. However, he is forgetting two important factors:
* The NBA is making money, and the trend indicates the salary cap is rising- meaning a max contract today may not be worth a max contract three years from now.
* There is an opportunity cost- if the Cavs lose Kyrie Irving by not signing him to a max contract, where are they going to get a player of his caliber?
So offer him a max. He either signs it (yay), or refuses, in which case he needs to be put on the trading block, and the team needs to accept not having him. I hope he stays, but I'm not rooting for a player who doesn't want to be here.
Rule #6: Pick a direction and determine your coach, free agents, and draft picks around that. Assuming Kyrie stays (and for a max contract, he should), there are two directions that clearly work.
* Full run & gun. In that case, hire a coach who fits the run & gun style (George Karl, Mike D'Antoni, Alvin Gentry, or a college or assistant coach with this mindset). That's my top choice. Then draft Wiggins, re-sign Spencer Hawes, and go with a lineup of:
- PG: Kyrie Irving
- SG: Dion Waiters
- C: Spencer Hawes
- PF: Tristan Thompson
- SF: Andrew Wiggins
- Bench: Anderson Varejao, Anthony Bennett, CJ Miles, Jarrett Jack, Matthew Dellanova
Constant running, stagger everybody's minutes so no one goes about 30 minutes, and try to win 140-130
* More standard lineup. Hire a coach the team will listen to (Lionel Hollins comes to mind), draft Joel Embiid with the #1 pick, lose Hawes, find the best SF you can in the free agent market.
I think this one is harder to pull off given the Cav's current lineup. It has two advantages over the run and gun style, though:
- If Healthy, Joel Embiid has a higher ceiling than Andrew Wiggins. But with his back, that 'if' will always be a question
- No run and gun team has ever won a NBA title; Phoenix came close but never made the finals even.
* To be honest, I'm torn here. I think the second path requires more rework of the team, but might have a higher chance of success. But the run & gun team would be fun to watch. And because I'm worried about Embiid's back, that's the direction I'm leaning towards.
* Also, if Kyrie indicates he's not signing even a max contract? Draft Embiid and go the standard path. I'm a Dion Waiters fan, but we need two great guards to pull this off, and I don't know where we get that second guard.
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