The NBA Draft is tonight. I'm a Cavaliers fan. Using the same format as my wrestling predictions:
My Crazy Dream Booking: Cavs trade #8, Love and JR Smith for Bradley Beal and Martin Gortat (if LeBron Stays). Cavs trade #8 and Love to Sacramento for #2 and draft Luka Doncic (if LeBron leaves)
What Should Happen: Cavs draft Wendell Carter, Jr.- Safest pick in this range. They keep comparing him to Al Horford
What Will Happen: Cavs draft Collin Sexton- they need guard help
What I’m Terrified Will Happen: Cavs draft Michael Porter, and his injuries continue to hamper him.
If I Was Booking This And I Hated You: Cavs trade #8 and Love for Kawhi Leonard- LeBron goes to the Lakers, and Leonard's injuries keep him out all year
Thursday, June 21, 2018
Saturday, June 9, 2018
The Cavaliers: Now what?
The Cleveland Cavaliers lost to the Golden State Warriors in the finals. They were swept, 4-0.
The reason is both simple and maddeningly frustrating- the Warriors are one of the greatest NBA teams of all time. In 2016, they set the record for the most regular season NBA wins- and then added the second best player in the NBA to that team. The Cavs couldn't match up- they played defense well, but the Warriors kept hitting three pointers.
No shame in losing 3 out of 4 to the Warriors- and the 2016 NBA finals will always go down as the highlight for me as a Cleveland Sports fan.
So where do the Cavaliers go from here?
LeBron is a free agent- he can go anywhere. He might decide that Cleveland can't beat the Warriors and look for another team that can.
He might be right- the Cavs are old and over the salary cap. They have a couple young players (Cedi Osman, Larry Nance Jr, the #8 pick in this draft). But they can't pick anyone in free agency. And while the Cavs can turn it on, and are likely to be better with another year's worth of chemistry- against a Golden State team that is at full strength, how do the Cavs get good enough to beat them?
Of course, that also applies to just about every other team in the NBA- adding LeBron to any team makes them contenders. But does adding LeBron make them close to Golden State?
I see three scenarios the Cavs can follow:
Scenario 1: Push All In. Try to make a trade to get a player or two to push the Cavs above Golden State. Trade their picks and players for that one last chance.
Is that player available? Kawhi Leonard wants out of San Antonio. DeMarcus Cousins might take a one year deal. Andrew Wiggins is incredibly talented, but still hasn't blossomed- and is about to start a massive contract.
The problem is- LeBron isn't obligated to sign with the team, even if they push all in. And if they make a move, it's going to put them in hell for the 3-4 years.
Scenario 2: Expect LeBron to leave and still try to contend.
Basically, LeBron says he wants to go to team (x). The Cavs pull a sign-and-trade with (x) for a veteran and see if the team still contend.
Let's say LeBron wants to sign with Boston. The Cavs sign-and-trade with Boston of LeBron for Gordon Hayward. The Cavs take Hayward and play him along with Love, Thompson, Jr...
Is that a team that can contend for a title? Probably not. But they are a playoff team, and the Cavs might get lucky while waiting for some of the older players to finish their contract and go into free agency market again.
The problem with this scenario is that it puts the Cavs on a treadmill- too good to get a great draft pick, but not a title contender.
Scenario 3: Full blow up.
Same idea as the sign and trade- but in this case, the Cavs get insist on draft picks, young players, and/or getting rid of bad contract. Blow up the team entirely, start over.
That's ugly- the Cavs did that in 2011-2013. The 76ers did that from 2013-2016. It CAN work... but it involves a bad number of years. And I'm not sure who will be willing to be third team, anyways.
The future in unpredictable.
Regardless of what happens, regardless of what LeBron does... we saw greatness. And we'll always have 2016.
The reason is both simple and maddeningly frustrating- the Warriors are one of the greatest NBA teams of all time. In 2016, they set the record for the most regular season NBA wins- and then added the second best player in the NBA to that team. The Cavs couldn't match up- they played defense well, but the Warriors kept hitting three pointers.
No shame in losing 3 out of 4 to the Warriors- and the 2016 NBA finals will always go down as the highlight for me as a Cleveland Sports fan.
So where do the Cavaliers go from here?
LeBron is a free agent- he can go anywhere. He might decide that Cleveland can't beat the Warriors and look for another team that can.
He might be right- the Cavs are old and over the salary cap. They have a couple young players (Cedi Osman, Larry Nance Jr, the #8 pick in this draft). But they can't pick anyone in free agency. And while the Cavs can turn it on, and are likely to be better with another year's worth of chemistry- against a Golden State team that is at full strength, how do the Cavs get good enough to beat them?
Of course, that also applies to just about every other team in the NBA- adding LeBron to any team makes them contenders. But does adding LeBron make them close to Golden State?
I see three scenarios the Cavs can follow:
Scenario 1: Push All In. Try to make a trade to get a player or two to push the Cavs above Golden State. Trade their picks and players for that one last chance.
Is that player available? Kawhi Leonard wants out of San Antonio. DeMarcus Cousins might take a one year deal. Andrew Wiggins is incredibly talented, but still hasn't blossomed- and is about to start a massive contract.
The problem is- LeBron isn't obligated to sign with the team, even if they push all in. And if they make a move, it's going to put them in hell for the 3-4 years.
Scenario 2: Expect LeBron to leave and still try to contend.
Basically, LeBron says he wants to go to team (x). The Cavs pull a sign-and-trade with (x) for a veteran and see if the team still contend.
Let's say LeBron wants to sign with Boston. The Cavs sign-and-trade with Boston of LeBron for Gordon Hayward. The Cavs take Hayward and play him along with Love, Thompson, Jr...
Is that a team that can contend for a title? Probably not. But they are a playoff team, and the Cavs might get lucky while waiting for some of the older players to finish their contract and go into free agency market again.
The problem with this scenario is that it puts the Cavs on a treadmill- too good to get a great draft pick, but not a title contender.
Scenario 3: Full blow up.
Same idea as the sign and trade- but in this case, the Cavs get insist on draft picks, young players, and/or getting rid of bad contract. Blow up the team entirely, start over.
That's ugly- the Cavs did that in 2011-2013. The 76ers did that from 2013-2016. It CAN work... but it involves a bad number of years. And I'm not sure who will be willing to be third team, anyways.
The future in unpredictable.
Regardless of what happens, regardless of what LeBron does... we saw greatness. And we'll always have 2016.
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