I've been drinking some Aberlour Scotch and cursing trade wars and thinking...
1) This week, I'm getting a vasectomy. I'm making jokes about it (the wife keeps referring to the "Cone of Shame", and I've made comments form 'Gonads to 'Gone-ads'). I'm not worried about it (I've had a kidney taken it- this should, in theory, be a piece of cake), but I admit a little bit forlorn. I'm almost 48; I know I'm too old to be a father. And I knew years ago that I wasn't going to be one, and that I'd probably be too lenient to be a good father. But there are still regrets, and the thoughts of "What if...".
2) Changing to something less personal... I'm watching High Fidelity on Hulu, and highly recommend it. The movie was great, and I think the series is even better. Zoe Kravitz is awesome in the Rob role
3) The next debate is tonight. Honestly unless something happens in the next week, I suspect Bernie Sanders will be the Democratic Nominee. Which sucks from my point of view, because I think both candidates are so awful that neither deserve my vote. I'll abstain, hope from gridlock, and get a pre-boarding ticket for the Nikki Haley 2024 bandwagon.
4) I might as well post it here to put extra pressure of myself- my goal in 2020 is to finish the book I've started. When it's complete, I'll be asking for beta readers.
And on that note, time for me to finish my drink and head. Peace, my friends.
Tuesday, February 25, 2020
Thursday, February 20, 2020
Political Game Theory: Biden's move
At the moment, according to FiveThirtyEight, Bernie Sanders is likely to win a plurality of the delegates but not a majority. Bernie has a rock-solid base of 15-25% of voters who will support him no matter what. The rest of the voters are split among the other candidates.
This is very similar to 2016's GOP Primary. Trump had a rock-solid base, and the other candidates split the votes. Since the GOP primaries are winner-take-all, Trump built up a large delegate lead even though he rarely won any states with over 50% of the votes.
Because the Democratic primaries are proportional (if you get above 15%), Bernie isn't on pace to build that type of delegate lead- but if he wins a plurality by the convention, it will be difficult to not award him the nomination.
The other candidates have a classic Prisoner's Dilemma. Any one of the could likely beat Bernie if it was one-on-one. But all of them want to be that one. So they need the others to drop out. But none of them have any incentive to drop out to help the other.
So here's where someone needs to cut a deal. If I were Joe Biden, I would be making two phone calls today.
The first is to Senator Elizabeth Warren, with a simple deal, "Bow out an publicly support me. I will make you Secretary of the Treasury. You will have the authority to reform Wall Street and the Banking System. I will be focusing on so many issues that I will defer to your expertise on fixing the economy."
Will that work? Possibly. Senator Warren has to know she's a long shot at this point, and this would put her in a position to implement a lot of the reforms she believes in.
The other phone call is to Senator Amy Klobachur, "Senator, you've run a hell of a campaign. But it's time for us to join together to beat Trump. Join me as my Vice President. We both believe in the same policies. And I'm 74 years old- I don't expect to run a second term. You'll be in the driver's seat to win in 2024."
And end it with a little bit of arm-twisting, "If you're not interested, I'll call Pete Buttigieg and see if he'll take the deal instead."
Again, will it work? Biden is 74. And while it's very tough for one party to win three elections in a row, winning a second- especially if Biden steps down and makes Klobachur his heir apparent- is a good spot.
Mayor Mike Bloomberg has said that the other candidates should drop out so he can challenge Sanders. But he's not giving them any reason to do so. In this idea, Biden is offering something of value to two candidates to join him. He's cutting a deal.
He's doing what a good politician should do.
This is very similar to 2016's GOP Primary. Trump had a rock-solid base, and the other candidates split the votes. Since the GOP primaries are winner-take-all, Trump built up a large delegate lead even though he rarely won any states with over 50% of the votes.
Because the Democratic primaries are proportional (if you get above 15%), Bernie isn't on pace to build that type of delegate lead- but if he wins a plurality by the convention, it will be difficult to not award him the nomination.
The other candidates have a classic Prisoner's Dilemma. Any one of the could likely beat Bernie if it was one-on-one. But all of them want to be that one. So they need the others to drop out. But none of them have any incentive to drop out to help the other.
So here's where someone needs to cut a deal. If I were Joe Biden, I would be making two phone calls today.
The first is to Senator Elizabeth Warren, with a simple deal, "Bow out an publicly support me. I will make you Secretary of the Treasury. You will have the authority to reform Wall Street and the Banking System. I will be focusing on so many issues that I will defer to your expertise on fixing the economy."
Will that work? Possibly. Senator Warren has to know she's a long shot at this point, and this would put her in a position to implement a lot of the reforms she believes in.
The other phone call is to Senator Amy Klobachur, "Senator, you've run a hell of a campaign. But it's time for us to join together to beat Trump. Join me as my Vice President. We both believe in the same policies. And I'm 74 years old- I don't expect to run a second term. You'll be in the driver's seat to win in 2024."
And end it with a little bit of arm-twisting, "If you're not interested, I'll call Pete Buttigieg and see if he'll take the deal instead."
Again, will it work? Biden is 74. And while it's very tough for one party to win three elections in a row, winning a second- especially if Biden steps down and makes Klobachur his heir apparent- is a good spot.
Mayor Mike Bloomberg has said that the other candidates should drop out so he can challenge Sanders. But he's not giving them any reason to do so. In this idea, Biden is offering something of value to two candidates to join him. He's cutting a deal.
He's doing what a good politician should do.
Tuesday, February 11, 2020
Political Thought: Primary voters
The New Hampshire Primaries are today. The number I'm curious about isn't who wins, but the total number of primary voters.
In 2016, there were 253,062 votes for the Democratic Primary. In 2008, there were 287,557 vote for the Democratic Primary. In 2004, it was just under 218,000 votes for the Democratic Primary.
This year, there are multiple candidates on the Democratic Primary, and it's an election where they are trying to vote out a disliked incumbent President.
New Hampshire voted Democrat in the 2016 election, but it was close- 46.7% to 46.25%. For the Democrats to win in 2020, they need to keep all of the states they won and flip some of the others.
In theory, passions are running high- not only for their candidate among the Democrats, but to vote out President Trump.
The turnout in the Iowa Caucus was low- but Iowa had so many problems that I'm not sure it's a good example. But if New Hampshire has a low turnout under these circumstances- a close Primary election in a year they should be passionate about throwing out the President- then I would be very worried that too many voters have just tuned out completely.
In 2016, there were 253,062 votes for the Democratic Primary. In 2008, there were 287,557 vote for the Democratic Primary. In 2004, it was just under 218,000 votes for the Democratic Primary.
This year, there are multiple candidates on the Democratic Primary, and it's an election where they are trying to vote out a disliked incumbent President.
New Hampshire voted Democrat in the 2016 election, but it was close- 46.7% to 46.25%. For the Democrats to win in 2020, they need to keep all of the states they won and flip some of the others.
In theory, passions are running high- not only for their candidate among the Democrats, but to vote out President Trump.
The turnout in the Iowa Caucus was low- but Iowa had so many problems that I'm not sure it's a good example. But if New Hampshire has a low turnout under these circumstances- a close Primary election in a year they should be passionate about throwing out the President- then I would be very worried that too many voters have just tuned out completely.
Sunday, February 9, 2020
Baseball Card Thoughts
Topps has released their 2020 baseball cards. I have my $0.11 on them...
1st- they are beautiful- but to me, it's a sterile beauty. Take a look at these two baseball cards:
Cards have also become a legalized lottery. Packs are expensive (my 3 packs were $2.99 apiece for 16 cards), but they all have special inserts that, in theory, could be sold for more money. I fear we are at a stage where no one collects and everyone invest, at which point the market will fall out. There's also so many sets that trying to be a completionist is impossible
I'm not an investor; I collect for fun. I'll pick a small group and work on them.
One set I do want to collect is the 2020 Topps Heritage Set. The Heritage sets have the layouts of years past, and this one is the 1971 Topps (the black bordered cards). I want to do this the old-fashioned way; opening up a few packs at a time, putting the set together manually. It's a bad investment- but it'll appeal to my inner 11 year old.
1st- they are beautiful- but to me, it's a sterile beauty. Take a look at these two baseball cards:
The one on the left is the 2018 Mike Trout from Topps; the one of the right is the 2020 Mike Trout. The pictures are stunning- but the cards are too similar. Both borderless, both of the same in-game moment. Except for the helmet, you could have told me that they were from the same at-bat, and I'd have believed you.
Below is an example from almost 50 years ago; The 1971 Topps Johnny Bench and the 1973 Bench. They look different; not only is one a pose while the other is in-game, but just the feel of the cards are different. Each year had a different redesign. You can pick out a 1971 Topps from a 1972 from a 1973... it made collecting the cards more special.
Cards have also become a legalized lottery. Packs are expensive (my 3 packs were $2.99 apiece for 16 cards), but they all have special inserts that, in theory, could be sold for more money. I fear we are at a stage where no one collects and everyone invest, at which point the market will fall out. There's also so many sets that trying to be a completionist is impossible
I'm not an investor; I collect for fun. I'll pick a small group and work on them.
One set I do want to collect is the 2020 Topps Heritage Set. The Heritage sets have the layouts of years past, and this one is the 1971 Topps (the black bordered cards). I want to do this the old-fashioned way; opening up a few packs at a time, putting the set together manually. It's a bad investment- but it'll appeal to my inner 11 year old.
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