Thoughts with Bourbon: Rank Punditry (VP Pick) edition

 Making a prediction and locking it in on August 7th, 2020:

Susan Rice will be Joe Biden's Vice President.

(Note:  This will likely be proven right or wrong within the week.  If it's wrong... it won't be the first time I've made a bad judgement).

Here's my reasoning:

1)  Biden guaranteed back in March that he would pick a female VP.  This could be seen as grovelling- or it could be that he already knew who his VP was going to be, and since he already had it locked in, why not make the guarantee?

2)  Biden, I think, wants a VP who will act like him when Biden was President Obama's VP- a trusted advosr, the last person in the room before the President makes his decision.  From what I understand, Rice and Biden got along very well during the Obama adminsitration.  If Biden trusts her, he could see her fulfilling the role he played for President Obama.

3)  Biden wants to make 'his' pick.  If he picks Harris or Duckworth, he will be seen as caving to pressue.  There is no good political reason to pick Rice- therefore, if she is chosen, it must be because he believes she is the best person qualified for the job.

Now, the big question- is she?

She's a former National Security Advisor and former Ambassdor to the UN.  Her credentials in foreign affairs are serious and legitimate.  

The bad news is that she's never run for elected office, and she lost the opportunity be Secretary of State because of the Benghazi debacle.  No one really knows how she'll react under the spotlight of a national election.

Politically, I think she's a poor choice because she doesn't have elected experience, and because the GOP will bring up Benghazi for several months.  The paradox is that, while I think she's a poor political choice, my respect for Biden will increase.  There's no reason to pick Rice for VP (as opposed to Secretary of State) unless he truly believes she's the best person for the job.

Biden's 78.  At his age, who his Vice President is carries significant weight.  Susan Rice wouldn't be my choice- but I think she will be Biden's.