Goodbye 2021

2021 Ends tonight... the sooner, the better.

There have been good things that happened in 2021- people that I have met, times that I have hung out with my friends.  We are renovating my house, which has caused us to move in with my parents for four months- and that worked out incredibly well for all of us.  

But my initial thoughts about 2021 are the people I have lost.  My grandmother passed away in her 90s.  One of my oldest friends from high school passed away from cancer at 50.  Every year has good and bad points- but this one seems to sting harder than most.

In the world, two events stick out.  The vaccines worked brilliantly, and turned COVID from a plague that threatened the world to a manageable problem.  Even though the virus mutates (I now several people who are positive now), it is much less severe than we could have possibly imagined in the summer of 2020.  The world has changed because of COVID- but the changes are much less dystopic.

The second event was January 6th.  I have always felt that, despite the differences between the citizens of America, when the chips were down, they would stick together.  January 6th should have been a wake up call that things were too far gone in terms of rhetoric and the Culture Wars.  Instead, it has become one more cudgel to be used.  I fear that January 6th won't be seen as a warning, but as a sign of the future.

And, after a forty year pause, inflation has come roaring back.  Good times.  I feel like we're in a sequel to the 1970s, but the soundtrack is much worse...

I am an optimistic, and believe the future trends upwards.  But even upward trends have down years.  2021 was a down year.  Here's to 2022 being better for us all.

NBA 2021-2022 Predictions

Eastern Conference:

1.       Milwaukee

2.       Brooklyn     

3.       Boston

4.       Philadelphia

5.       Atlanta

6.       New York

7.       Charlotte

8.       Miami

9.       Chicago

10.     Washington

11.     Indiana

12     Cleveland

13.     Toronto

14.     Detroit

15.     Orlando

Playoffs:

·         Charlotte over Miami; Chicago over Washington; Chiacgo over Miami

·         Milwaukee over Chicago, Brooklyn over Charlotte, Boston over New York, Atlanta over Philadelphia

·         Milwaukee over Atlanta, Brooklyn over Boston

·         Brooklyn over Milwaukee

Western Conference:

1.       Denver

2.       Utah

3.       LA Lakers

4.       Phoenix

5.       Golden State

6.       Dallas

7.       Portland

8.       Memphis

9.       New Orleans

10.     Sacramento

11.     LA Clippers

12.     San Antonio

13.     Minnesota

14.     Houston

15.     Oklahoma City

Playoffs:

·         Memphis over Portland, New Orleans over Sacramento, New Orleans over Portland

·         Denver over New Orleans, Utah over Memphis, Dallas over Lakers, Phoenix over Golden State

·         Denver over Phoenix, Dallas over Utah

·         Denver over Dallas

More notes:

·         I wasn't a Brooklyn fan, and really don't enjoy watching Harden or Kyrie- but lord is Durant good.  After losing on a fluke to a great team, despite having two injured stars, I think Durant is on a mission this year 

·         I'd love my Cleveland Cavaliers to play well- but it's such a weird team.  They have talent, but no definition.  I think this is a playoff or bust year for both Altman and Bickerstaff- but the East is deep, and unless the young players really step up well, I don't think they make it.  

·         MVP?  The general preseason consensus is Luka Doncic.  If Dallas plays well, he will win

·         ROY?  Jalen Green- though I think this might be a great class with several all-stars in the suture

·         Finals?  I think Denver is deeper, Jokic is great, and they might have Jamal Murray back... but Brooklyn has Durant, has Harden, and I think come crunch time Kyrie will rejoin the team.  Brooklyn is on a mission, and they win 4-1

Taste Test: Basil Hayden

Selection:  Basil Hayden

Price:  ~$45

Proof:   80 Proof (40% ABV)

Thoughts:   Tried this in Indiana.  It's a Rye- and the Rye is overwhelming.  I'm not really tasting anything else.  Adding a lemon helps a bit- but if a bourbon isn't good to drink without fruit, it's not a great bourbon.

Conclusion:   Not something I'd recommend.  Too powerful of a rye taste to get anything else.  

NFL Predictions: 2021-22

I'm never right about these but why let that stop me?

 NFC

East:

Washington 11-6

Dallas 10-7

Philadelphia 6-11

NY Giants 4-13

North:
Minnesota 10-7
Green Bay 9-8
Detroit 5-12

Chicago 3-14

South:
Tampa Bay 12-5

Atlanta 11-6 (Wild Card)
New Orleans 10-7
Carolina 5-12

West:
Los Angeles Rams 12-5
San Francisco 11-6 (Wild Card)

Seattle 11-6 (Wild Card)

Arizona 6-11 


Playoffs:
San Francisco over Minnesota

Seattle over Washington

Los Angeles Rams over Atlanta

Tampa Bay over San Francisco

Los Angeles Rams over Seattle

Tampa Bay over Los Angeles Rams



AFC

East:
Buffalo 13-4

New England 12-5 (Wild Card)
Miami 6-11
NY Jets 5-12

North:

Cleveland 12-5

Baltimore 11-6 (Wild Card)

Pittsburgh 9-8

Cincinnati 5-12

South:
Tennessee 11-6

Indianapolis 9-8

Jacksonville 6-11
Houston 2-15

West:
Kansas City 12-5 
Los Angeles Chargers 11-6  (Wild Card)
Denver 7-10
Las Vegas 5-12

Playoffs:
Cleveland over Los Angeles Chargers

New England over Tennessee
Kansas City over Baltimore

Buffalo over New England
Cleveland over Kansas City

Buffalo over Cleveland



Super Bowl: Buffalo 33, Tampa Bay 24

Taste Test: Coppercraft Rye Whiskey

Selection:  Coppercraft Rye Whiskey

Price:  ~$40

Proof:   90 Proof (45% ABV)

Thoughts:   I'm going in blind on this drink, basing it off a recommendation from the Bourbon Junkies.  This was one of their suggestions for people who like Blanton's Bourbon.  Blanton's is exceptionally difficult to find, especially in Ohio.  In a perfect world, I'd compare Coppercraft to Blanton's- but I don't have any to compare it to.

Onto the tasting:  It's definitely a Rye Whiskey, and it has an earthy taste.  There's a bit of a vanilla or caramel taste to the drink.  It doesn't have a long or sharp bite (90 is on the lower end for alcohol content).

Conclusion:   Not bad, not one of my favorites.  It's a decent placeholder if you're looking for a Rye drink

NBA Draft 2021 predictions

My Crazy Dream Booking:  Detroit drafts Cade Cunningham; Houston drafts Jalen Green; Cleveland Grab Evan Mobley.  Cleveland keeps Sexton and trades for a late round 1^st to grab Jaden Springer as their third guard

 

What Should Happen: Detroit drafts Cunningham; Houston drafts Green; Cleveland Grab Mobley.  Cleveland keeps Sexton and trades for a late round 1^st to grab Jaden Springer as their third guard

 

What Will Happen: Detroit drafts Cunningham; Houston drafts Green; Cleveland Grab Mobley and makes no other moves.

What I’m Terrified Will Happen: Detroit drafts Cunningham; Houston drafts Mobley;  Cleveland drafts Green and the next four months are nothing but talk about how to fit Green, Sexton and Garland together

If I Was Booking This And I Hated You: Detroit drafts Cunningham; Houston drafts Green;  Cleveland trades #3 to Orlando for #5, #8 and a future (lottery protected) 1^st from Orlando, then draft Kuminga (5^th) and Moses Moody (8^th)   Not that I don’t like either prospect, but nowhere on the level as Mobley 

Lottery predictions:

1)  Detroit Pistons- Cade Cunnginham

2)  Houston Rockets- Jalen Green

3)  Cleveland Cavaliers- Evan Mobley

4)  Toronto Raptors- Jalen Suggs

5)  Oklahoma CIty Thunder (trade with Orlando Magic)- Scottie Barnes

6)  Orlando Magic (trade with Oklahoma City Thunder)- Jonathon Kuminga

7)  Golden State Warriors- James Bouknight

8)  Orlando Magic- Alperen Sengun

9)  Sacramento Kings- Franz Wgner

10)  Memphis Grizzlies- Josh Giddey

11)  Charlotte Hornets- Kai Jones

12)  San Antonio Spurs- Ziaire Williams

13)  Indianapolis Pacers- Davion Mitchell

14)  Golden State Warriors- Chris Duarte

Taste Test: Angel's Envy

Another Bourbon:

Selection:  Angel's Envy

Price:  ~$50, which makes it very affordable.  But it's hard to get.  My usual hangout seems to only have a few bottles a month

Proof:   86.6 Proof (43.3% ABV)

Thoughts:   It's finished in Port Wine Barrels, and there is a taste of fruit and vanilla to the bourbon.  You can feel the alcohol, even though it's lower proof than many other bourbons.  

Conclusion:   Very good- especially if you like red wine

Taste Test: Old Grand-dad

 A couple of days later, another bourbon... one that I'm about halfway through.

Selection:  Old Grand-dad

Price:  ~$30, which makes it very affordable.  But it's hard to get.  My usual hangout seems to only have a few bottles a month

Proof:   114 Proof (57% ABV)

Thoughts:   There's a honey-like taste to this bourbon.  The taste is sugary, and it lingers for a while.  A proof of 114 is on the higher end for bourbon, and it is noticeable.  But it's not nearly as abrasive as the Forester.  

Conclusion:   I like it.  The price point is very good for the quality.  It's not a favorite but I'll add it to the rotation when I can find it.

Taste Test: Old Forester, Signature Brand

I'm not a beer person.  Alcohol-wise, I prefer scotches and bourbons.  I've picked up a couple of new bottles to try.  And what good is having a blog if not to offer your opinion on subjects no one asked you about?

So here's my thoughts on trying a new bourbon.

Selection:  Old Forester, Signature Brand

Price:  $20.99, which makes it very affordable

Proof:   100 Proof (50% ABV)

Thoughts:   The initial taste is caramel.  Not the smoothest bourbon I've ever had.  There is a bit of a burn from drinking it that lingers.  It's not unpleasant (I've had much worse), but if you're not used to drinking whisky I wouldn't start with this one.  Adding some water thinned out the kick a bit.

Conclusion:   For the price, it's good.  If you like having a bit of a kick, it's worth checking out.  This isn't going to make my regular rotation of drinks but I can see why people like it.

NBA Playoff Predictions

The play-in games are completed, and the NBA Playoffs are set:

My initial thoughts:

- The East is down to three teams- 76ers, Nets and Bucks

- The West will be a brawl- I can make good arguments for five of the teams, and could even make a decent case for the other three.  Whoever emerges from there will be battered and bruised

- As much rest as LeBron and Davis had during the season from injuries, I still think they are recovering from the shortened offseason of last year.  

- The Smart move is the 76ers.  But I also think the Bucks NEED a run more than any other team.  Every other team either has players who have already won (Lakers, Nets with Durant and Kyrie) are young enough to believe they'll be back (76ers, Mavericks, Suns), or have an injury that could explain why they faltered (Nuggets, Jazz).  If the Bucks don't have a deep playoff run... where do they go?  More than any other franchise, they should be feeling the pressure.

And I think they'll succeed.

1st Round:

Eastern Conference:

76ers (1) over Wizards (8), 4-1

Nets (2) over Celtics (7) , 4-1

Bucks (3) over Heat (6) , 4-2

Knicks (4) over Hawks (5) , 4-3

Western Conference: 

Jazz (1) over Grizzlies (8) , 4-1

Lakers (7) over Suns (2), 4-3

Nuggets (3) over Trail Blazers (6) , 4-0

Mavericks (5) over Clippers (4) , 4-3

2nd Round:

Eastern Conference:

76ers (1) over Knicks (4), 4-2

Bucks (3) over Nets (2), 4-3

Western Conference: 

Jazz (1) over Mavericks (5) , 4-2

Nuggets (3) over Lakers (7) , 4-3  

Conference Finals:

Eastern Conference:

Bucks (3) over 76ers (1) , 4-3

Western Conference: 

Nuggets (3)  over Jazz (1), 4-2

NBA Finals:

Bucks (3) over Nuggets (3), 4-2

Your 2021 NBA champions...  

MLB 2021 Thoughts

Yeah, I know... season's already started.  But some late predictions and comments- trying a different format:

It's like rooting for Amazon or Apple...

If I had to bet money on the World Series, I'd go: Dodgers over Yankees, 4 games to 2.  Dodgers clearly have the most talent in the league- which doesn't mean they are a lock to win.  But if I had to bet, they are the team to go with.

The American League is far more wide open.  I could see seven teams getting hot and winning (Yankees, Rays, Blue Jays, Twins, White Sox, Astros).  But the Yankees have had horrible luck the pasy few years in terms of injuries.  If they stay healthy (big If), they are the most likely to come out of the AL

Team I'm rooting for to win it all this year:  I'm a Cubs and Indians fan, and don't think either will make the playoffs (in fact, I think the Indians might be one of the worst teams in the AL).  I like teams that never won the World Series in my lifetime, which gives me two candidates- the San Diego Padres and the Tampa Rays.  Tampa has had a ton of sports riches, but I'm still bitter about 1984, so let's go Rays.

Most interesting team in baseball in 2021:  The Dodgers, on paper, might be one of the greatest teams ever- but I don't think that necessarily makes them interesting.  The Pirates might be one of the worst teams ever- but again, that doesn't make them interesting.

For interesting- how about the Blue Jays?  A young team with a ton of young, second generation players.  Their hitting looks great- their pitching is either really good (Hyun Jin Ryu, Taijuan Walker) or awful- and pitching is highly variable.  

One final thought:  The Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) expires at the end of the year.  Financially, baseball has a lot of problems.  The Dodgers are spending $226 million on their payroll this year, and a quarter of the league isn't spending 1/3 of that amount.  I don't see how this system can continue- but the CBA isn't between the owners; it's between the owners and the players.  There is a good possibility of a strike after this season, and it might be a long one.  I'm not making any predictions- I'm just going to enjoy baseball this year.

RIP Conservatism

The Conservative movement is dead.  Has been for a while- but the latest spending bill really emphasized the point.  There are still people calling themselves (or calling others) 'Conservatives'- but the real Conservative movement- the one championed by Buckley, Goldwater, Thatcher and Reagan- that movement is dead.  

To understand why it died, start with this premise:  The Conservative movement was made up of four platforms, like a chair with four legs**:

1)  Taking a strong opposition to the Soviet Union

2)  Smaller Government

3)  Social Issues

4)  Lower Taxes

Each of those legs got twisted around over time, for different reasons.

Start with the opposition to the Soviet Union.  That leg disappeared in 1989 along with the Soviet Union.  The Conservative movement succeeded- now what?  During the Presidency of George W Bush, it morphed into the US trying to become the World's Policeman, and looking at the Middle East.  But the Middle East was never the existential threat that the Soviet Union represented, and we (the US) could never decide if it was better to act as the World's Policeman or to walk away from the rest of the world when it comes to tyranny.  We still don't know which is better.

The second leg- smaller government- the Conservatives proved they were never serious about it.  It was a great weapon to use against the Democrats- but when the Conservatives actually had the power to shrink government, they never flinched.  They proved that ratchet theory correct- government grows, but never shrinks.  

So now the 'Conservative' movement is now two legs:  Social Issues and Lower Taxes.  Lower taxes is a non-starter:  you'll notice there are no taxes in the 1.9 trillion spending bill (How is it being financed?  Deficits.  Deficits without end).  So that leaves Social Issues

Social issues morphed over time.  The social issues that people were concerned about 60 years ago aren't the same ones as today.  There's still a few hot button issues- abortion and gun control, for instance.  But mainly, both parties use social issues to rev up their voters.  Voters get geared up about the culture war in a way they don't over economic and foreign policy issues.  And the GOP abandoned the high ground on character in 2016.  As the other three legs withered and died, social issues became all that defined the movement.

The Conservative movement dominated the GOP for fifty years.  But it's now dead, and right now the Republican party is a cult of personality for Donald Trump.  I miss the Conservative movement- not only was it the political movement I grew up with, but I don't see anything that on the horizon to replace it.  

Pour one out for Buckley, for Goldwater, for Reagan, for Thatcher, for the intellectuals and politicians who created the Conservative movement.  You may have despised them, but I preferred them to what is available now.

(**The Democratic Party, by contrast, is made up about 50 legs- different factions with different agendas.  This has advantages and disadvantages)

WandaVision Thoughts

 Fair warning:  Spoilers ahead after finishing the season 1 finale of WandaVision...

2021 Topps Baseball Cards

 I'm very discouraged by the state of baseball in 2021.  But I'm also a longtime collector of baseball cards, and seeing the new sets usually bring me joy...

But baseball cards have become unusually hot lately.  Prices have skyrocketed, and cards are being hoarded.  I was lucky to find one booster pack at Target, and can check out the pack of the Topps set.  Here are my comments:

1)  The front of the card isn't my favorite.  I like the white broder and 70th anniversary emblem, but the blue diagonal stripes are a little distracting.  But at least it looks different- unlike other years, you can easily identify it's the 2021 set.

2)  The back of the cards, however... I think they look great.  They are clean and easily readable.  

3)  The new normal is a ton of varaitions and inserts.  The 2021 has 18 parallels of each card- purple to gold foil to celebrating Mother's Day to.... it's an overabundance.  

4)  And inserts... According to Beckett, the 2021 Topps has 31 different kinds of inserts. Again, it's overkill.

I'm glad I got the cards to check them out.  But I have no desire to spend the money to put together a set.  Maybe if I fall in love with a special insert, I'll go out of my way to get that.  But considering most of my favorite players were in the 70's and 80's and have been long retired, I'll most likely focus on those players instead.

The Lindor trade and the death of hope

 The Cleveland Indians traded Francisco Lindor and Carlos Carrasco to the Mets.

This is bad- and I don't think people realize how bad.  And it has nothing to do with who the Indians receive in this trade (I know very little about those prospects).

The Indians have traded superstar players before.  Joe Carter.  Bartolo Colon.  Cliff Lee.  CC Sabathia.  Kenny Lofton.  Trevor Bauer.  Corey Kluber.  I'm sure I'm missing others.

But this one is worse.  Here's why.

In the past, the trades were explained by one of two conditions:

1)  The team is in horrible shape, and we are trading one of our few good players to rebuild entirely.

That doesn't apply here.  The Indians have done extremely well, and made the playoffs four out of the past five years.

2)  We cannot pay superstar player A- but because we trade him, we can pay B, C and D.

The Indians are not in a case where they have to choose between paying five players the market rate.  They aren't paying anyone.  They have the lowest payroll in baseball- half the next lowest team.

The Indians have been blessed with an abundance of talent over the past five years... and the message the owner, Paul Dolan, has shown has that he will not spend money for this team... ever.

Even if the Indians develop superstar players, those players will not stay with the team.  

It's one thing to tell fans, "We cannot match the salaries of the Dodgers and Yankees.  We have to pick our spots to compete."

It's another to say, "We cannot compete, and we will not try."

That is the message the Indians sent, and that is the message the fans received.