Thoughts with Whiskey: 2025-05-25

Current drink:  Maker's Mark.  Not my favorite bourbon, but extremely solid, and a great deal for the price.

• Finished the episode "Who Are You?" from the show Andor.  Absolutely brilliant.  One reason it works is that it's the first show since the 1977 original movie to make the Empire actually competent and scary (the later movies made the Sith scary and the Empire as just their lackeys).  A good guideline for Star Wars is that the more emphasis they put on the Force, the weaker the world gets.

• I'd like to thank Tyrese Haliburton for being the NBA villain they didn't know they needed.  He and the Pacers are both very good and very obnoxious.  Part of me roots for them to lose- the other part wants them to win it all this year so my beloved Cleveland Cavaliers can knock them off next year.

• The House passed the "Big Beautiful Bill" this past week.  Two thoughts:

• Speaker Mike Johnson is, much like Nancy Pelosi and Mitch McConnell, really good at his job.  He twisted enough arms to get the bill passed when it seemed unlikely.
• I'm an old school Conservative.  I like tax cuts, and I think the government overspends.  But with a current debt at over $36 trillion and a current deficit at over $1 trillion (that's over $1,000,000,000,000.00), we really need spending cuts and tax hikes.  This bill does nothing to deal with the debt seriously

• Current game:  The life and suffering of Sir Brante.  Fascinating "Chose Your Own Adventure" type game going over an entire life.  Really enjoying it

Everyone have a great holiday:  Some Gave All 

Thoughts With Whiskey: 2025-05-16

Today's beverage:  Weller Special Reserve.  Probably the best value for bourbon, in my humble opinion.

* The Cleveland Cavaliers of 2024-2025 may be one of my favorite teams to have ever followed, and it was heartbreaking to see them go out in the 2nd round of the playoffs.  I would run it back with the same players; stability is criminally underrated in basketball, and I do think this was a learning experience (though a painful one) for them.  

* Watching season 2 of "Andor" now.  Best Star Wars tv show, even over the Mandalorian.  My plan is to finish the season and then rewatch "Rogue One".    And it continues my theory that the less involved the Force are in the Star Wars Universe, the better.

* I'd chat about politics... but what's the point?  I want my elected officials to be competent, decent, and boring.  Text me when that option becomes available.  

* Pete Rose and 'Shoeless' Joe Jackson are now eligible to be elected to the Baseball Hall of Fame.  I lived in Kentucky when Rose broke Ty Cobb's record, and he was deified in that part of the country.  He was a great baseball player and horrible human being.  Though I suppose the same also applies to Ty Cobb and others who are actually in the Hall of Fame.  

* Be well, everyone.  It's rough out there.  

NBA 2025 Lottery Booking

Another year, another potential franchise player that everyone wants.  Ladies and Gentlemen, meet Mister Cooper Flagg.  All of the NBA teams want him, and the teams who did not make the playoffs are in the lottery to earn the right to draft him (if the teams haven't already traded away their picks).  And the draft is supposed to be deep enough that anyone who gets into the top 4 should get an excellet player.  I don't think the lottery is rigged.... but IF it was, here's how I'd book things.

Cooper Flagg

My Crazy Dream Booking: Portland, Sacramento, Houston, Chicago.

When in doubt, pick franchises that haven't ever won the NBA title.  I'm also in favor in giving all of the fanbases hope- and Portland certainly needs some hope.

As an added bonus, if Philadelphia drops from 5 to 7, they lose their pick to OKC.  Add in Phoenix losing their pick to Houston, and it's a lesson in not trading away unprotected draft picks.

  
What Should Happen: Winners of the lottery:  Washington, Charlotte, Toronto, Chicago, 

One thing I've noticed- all of the top prospects end up in the Western confernce. Wembeyana ended up in San Antonio; Zion ended up in New Orleans.  It's one of the reasons the Western Conference is tougher than the Eastern Confernce.

We need some balance- and Washington needs some hope.  Let's give the Eastern conference the top 3 picks  

What Will Happen: Winners of the lottery:  Utah, Washington, Brooklyn, Charlotte

Fourtune favors the worst teams, and the three worst teams end up in the top 4 picks.  Brooklyn is a large city franchise that ends up with a top 3 pick.

What I’m Terrified Will Happen: Dallas, Atlanta, New Orleans, Philadelphia

I don't like rewarding teams that make foolish moves.  Dallas traded Luka Doncic and got an older, injury-prone Anthony Davis for him.  The Dejounte Murray trade cost Atlanta their pick (to San Antonio)- and then Atlanta traded Murray for New Orleans' pick.  

If I Was Booking This And I Hated You: The Lakers get Cooper Flagg

Not possible- but the Lakers have the "I win.  I always win" button.  So never say never...

NBA 2024-2025 Playoff Predictions

 For the record, here is my predictions from the start of the season.  

Eastern Conference:

Play-in Games:

• Orlando Magic defeats Atlanta Hawks
• Chicago Bulls defeats Miami Heat
• Chicago Bulls defeats Atlanta Hawks

1st Round:

• Cleveland Cavaliers defeats Chicago Bulls, 4-1
• Boston Celtics defeats Orlando Magic, 4-2
• New York Knicks defeats Detroit Pistons, 4-3
• Milwaukee Bucks defeats Indiana Pacers, 4-2

2nd Round:

• Cleveland Cavaliers defeats Milwaukee Bucks, 4-1
• Boston Celtics defeats New York Knicks, 4-3

Conference Finals:

• Cleveland Cavaliers defeats Boston Celtics, 4-3

Thoughts:

• To the surprise of no one, the two best teams in the East meet in the finals.  Boston has the deep playoff experience.  Cleveland has the better record- and is better rested (the top 3 players on the Cavaliers in Minutes per game are all under 32 minutes;  the top 3 for Boston are all above 33 minutes).  And Boston played a ton more games last year.
• Add it up- and the longer the series goes, the fresher Cleveland will be.  Boston's a great team- but I think Cleveland wins in game 7

Western Conference:

Play-in Games:

• Golden State Warriors defeats Memphis Grizzlies
• Sacramento Kings defeats Dallas Mavericks
• Sacramento Kings defeats Memphis Grizzlies

1st Round:

• Oklahoma City Thunder defeats Sacramento Kings, 4-0
• Houston Rockets defeats Golden State Warriors, 4-1
• Minnesota TImberwolves defeats Los Angeles Lakers, 4-3
• Denver Nuggets defeats Los Angeles Clippers, 4-2

2nd Round:

• Oklahoma City Thunder defeats Denver Nuggets, 4-2
• Minnesota Timberwolves defeats Houston Rockets, 4-3

Conference Finals:

• Oklahoma City Thunder defeats Minnesota Timberwolves, 4-1

Thoughts:

• Oklahoma City Thunder is head and shoulders above every other team in the West this year.  After them, it's a dogfight.
• I have Minnesota being the surprise team to make it to the conference finals.  Even at the 6 seed, they won 49 games- and I think they underperformed.  

NBA Finals:

• Oklahoma City Thunder defeats Cleveland Cavaliers, 4-3

I want the Cavaliers to win it all.  But objectively, Oklahoma is the best team.  They won the most games despite some serious injuries.  Maybe if Chet Holmgren has problems, the Cleveland front court will lead them to victory.  

They split the series, each team winning 1.  Cleveland won by 7.  Oklahoma won by 20.

I have to give it to the best team, not the team I'm rooting for.

Your NBA Champions- the Oklahoma City Thunder!

The Tarriffs: A multi-prong disaster

Let us count the ways in which the tarriffs announced by President Trump are a horrible idea:

1)  It will raise prices.  That is what tarriffs are designed to do- raise prices on goods.  As a general rule, things that raise prices hurt the consumers.

2)  It's especially bad because one of the economy was marked as the most important issue by the voters in the 2024 election, and the voters were not happy with President Biden's handling of the economy.  So voluntarily raising prices- when people were complaining about the high prices from inflation- is especially foolish.

3)  The tarriffs have significantly increased the chance of a recession.  

4)  What are the purposes of the tarriffs?  The President's advisors and staffs are giving contradictory reasons on what the end goal is with the tarriffs.  Either they are hiding the reason- or, far more likely, they have no idea.  

5)  This is solely on President Trump.  No one in Congress voted on raising tarriffs; he did not have the buy-in from the House, the Senate, or the public.  If this succeeds (and I have no idea what 'success' would look like), the credit belongs to him.  If it fails (and, based on the stock market and people's opinions on the economy, I have a very good idea what 'failure' looks like), the blame belongs to him and him alone.

6)  He's managed to offend every nation with his 10% across-the-board tarriffs, ticking off allies.  The other countries may cut deals with the US- but they also know the US isn't a fair trading partner, and will look for other answers in the long term.

7)  The idea is bad- but the execution is far worse.  The calculations for the tarriffs were poorly made- to the point that economist Adam Tooze called them "Grotesque".  

8)  And they also applied tarriffs to uninhabited islands.  It's bad enough to think that the US is being run by a wannabe mob boss.  It's worse to think that it's being run by a grossly incompetent wannabe mob boss.  

9)  It's so haphazard- every day the story changes of which countries will have tarriffs and by how much.  Not only does this reinforces the idea that the group in the White House have no idea what they are doing, but business thrives on stability- when there is this much chaos, they retreat and stop spending money.  Which hurts the economy.

Normally, when a President makes a decision I don't agree with, I at least usually understand what they are thinking.  On this one, I'm completely lost.  I'm not a conspiracy theorist- but I am completely lost what the purpose of these tarriffs are supposed to be.  I don't see how this helps the country, the world, or even Trump politically.  

The tarriffs are a bad idea, poorly executed, and an embarassment to all involved.  It will hurt the country, the world, both in the short term and the long term.

Outside of that, it's a great idea.

SignalGate: A blunder that will stick

There's an old French saying, attributed to Antoine Boulay, that goes, "It was worse than a crime; it was a blunder."  That's my initial thought hearing that Trump officials used an unsecured service (Signal) and shared attack plans with a journalist.  But I suspect this blunder will stick around a while, and really hurt the Trump administration in a way many scandals and crimes haven't.

Trump learned a lesson a long time ago- if you have one scandal, people focus on it.  If you have a dozen, it becomes background noise, and people tune out.  (Bill Clinton also mastered this lesson).  So most scandals that you would expect would have sunk Trump never seem to stick to him.  

But I think this one will, unless Trump takes decisive action quickly.  People form opinions about politicians (and really, any public figures).  Those opinions get hardened over time into their reputations.  Scandals and Crimes that fit in with those reputations don't matter- people are expecting them.

So Trump could sleep with a porn star and pay her off to be quiet, and it doesn't matter.  We (the public) expect Donald Trump to do that.  When he acts like an ass, we shrug; Trump has always been a vulgar ass.  That's part of his package- no one is surprised when he acts that way.

But he's also supposed to have built a reputation as a guy who doesn't tolerate failure.  Hell, his catchphrase was "You're Fired".  When underlings screw up, Trump is supposed to can them, quickly.  That's his reputation as well.

So there's two choices here:

Trump can act quickly, firing people who allowed this to happen (the obvious scalp is Mike Waltz, who accidentally invited Jeff Goldberg to the chat).  That is in line with Trump's reputation, and if that happens, this will go away like every other scandal.

But if Trump doesn't, the public will notice.  Now, keeping loyal people who botch things is allowed for most Presidents.  But that's not Trump's reputation.  It will look bad, and he has enough problems already.  At some point, the decline in popularity becomes too difficult to climb out of.  And while Trump is President for four years, the people have votes even this year to swap over the House.  

Major League Baseball 2025 Predictions

 Predicting the order, not the record

The Once and Future Champions

American League:

East:
1.  New York Yankees
2.  Baltimore Orioles (Wild Card)
3.  Toronto Blue Jays (Wild Card)
4.  Boston Red Sox
5. Tampa Bay Rays

Central:
1.  Detroit Tigers
2.  Kansas City Royals (Wild Card)
3.  Minnesota Twins
4.  Cleveland Guardians
5.  Chicago White Sox

West:  

1.  Seattle Mariners

2.  Houston Astros

3.  Texas Ranger

4.  Sacramento Atheltics

5.  Los Angles Angles

Playoffs:
- Detroit over Toronto
- Baltimore over Kansas City
- Detroit over Seattle
- New York Yankees over Baltimore
- New York Yankees over Detroit

National League:

East:
1.  New York Mets
2.  Philadelphia Phillies (Wild Card)
3. Atlanta Braves (Wild Card)
4. Washington Nationals
5. Miami Marlins

Central:
1.  Milwaukee Brewers
2.  Chicago Cubs
3.  Cincinnati Reds
4.  St. Louis Cardinals
5.  Pittsburgh Pirates

West:  

1.  Los Angeles Dodgers

2.  San Diego Padres (Wild Card)

3.  San Francisco Giants

4.  Arizona Diamondbacks

5.  Colorado Rockies

Playoffs:
- Philadelphia over San Diego
- Atlanta over Milwaukee
- Los Angeles Dodgers over Atlanta
- New York Mets over Philadelphia
- Los Angeles Dodgers over New York Mets

World Series:

It's a repeat of last year, and the results will be the same.  Dodgers win, 4-1

At some point, the resources the Dodgers put into their team just overwhelm everything.  The Dodgers are guaranteed to win the next five World Series- but right now, I don't see why I'd bet against them winning this year- or the next year- or the year after that.

This is what Major League Baseball wants.  We'll see if this is what the fans want.

Set your markers

God I'd tired of politics.

Partrly, I'm just tired, period.  My wife's 50th birthday was this week, and our plan was to go to Vermont and attend a baking class.  Long story short, we spent three days driving in a combination of freezing rain and whiteout conditions, had one fender bender, made it to Vermont but not to the class, and I was so stressed that I lost seven pounds in four days.  The lesson learned- no trips to the Northeast in February.

But I'm also tired of politics- in large part because we've got two parties that are not only convinced they are right, but that if you support the opposite side there must be something wrong with you.  And it's only gotten worse since the Inauguration.  Trump and his team are making a lot of moves.  And the friends who I have that support him since he's doing a great job and making the tough decisions, while the people who don't like Trump think he's destroying the country.

Fine.  I'm an engineer.  I measure things for a living.  Let's set some parameters and then see the results of Trump's decisions.  I'll try to be as fair an objective as possible.  My goal is simple- come back in a year and check these same numbers, using the same sources, and compare the results.  

I'll give the date and values of when I've started measuring, along with my sources

1)  The current national debt.

Date Measured:   09/19/2025

Source:  US Debt Clock

Current valve:  $36.499 Trillion

Current ratio of US Federal Debt to GDP:  123.02%

2)  US Employment Rate

Not the unemployment rate, which only accounts for people looking for jobs.  This is the percentage of the number of people who have a job as a percentage of the working age population (people beteween the ages of 15 and 64)

Date Mesaured:   January 2025

Source:  US Employment Rate

Current Value:  60.10%

3)  Consumer Price Index

This measures the 12 month change in prices

Date Mesaured:   January 2025

Source:  US Bureau of Labor Statistics

All items:   3.0%

Food:  2.5%

Energy:  1.0%

All items less food and energy:  3.3%

4)  National average fuel price:

Date measured:   02/19/2025

Source:  AAA Fuel Prices

Current Value:  $3.164

5)  Average rent price in the US

Date Measured:   November 2024

Source:  Rentcafe

Current rate:  $1,748

6)  Average and Median US Income:

The average salary is the sum of all income devided by the number of workers.  The median salary is the midpoint, where 50% of the population is above the line and 50% is below the line

Date Measured:  Q4 2024

Source:  SoFi Learn

Current Average Salary:  $63,795

Current Median Salary:  $61,984

7)  Current population below poverty line

Date Measured:   2023

Source:  American Progress

Poverty Threshold:  $30,900 for a family of four

Poverty Rate:  11.1%

I welcome other parameters.  They should be objective, easy to understand, and easy to check.

2024-2025 NFL Playoffs Support Rankings

Another year, another set of NFL Playoffs.  I'm ranking the 14 playoff teams by two methods- are they likely to win the Super Bowl, and who I want to win the Super Bowl.

Let's do the 'likely to win' rating first:

1. Detroit Lions
2. Kansas City Chiefs
3. Buffalo Bills
4. Minnesota Vikings
5. Philadelphia Eagles
6. Baltimore Ravens
7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
8. Washington Commanders
9. Los Angeles Chargers
10. Green Bay Packers
11. Pittsburgh Steelers
12. Los Angeles Rams
13. Houston Texans
14. Denver Broncos

This is an exciting year.  Three franchises that have never won the Super Bowl (the Lions, Bills, and Vikings) have a legitimate shot to win it all this year.  The Bills and Vikings have lost in heartbreaking fashion, while the Lions have never even made the Super Bowl.

The Chiefs have the best record- but keep winning by relatively slim margins.  And they've won te last two Super Bowls.  I don't hate the Chiefs, but I really want to see some new blood win.

My ranking for who I want to win:

1. Detroit Lions
2. Buffalo Bills
3. Minnesota Vikings (then a gap)
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Baker winning would be a chefs kiss, as a former Browns fan)
5. Los Angeles Chargers (the Chargers have never won the Super Bowl, either)
6. Green Bay Packers
7. Pittsburgh Steelers
8. Kansas City Chiefs (great team; just don't need to see them again)
9. Washington Commanders
10. Philadelphia Eagles
11. Denver Broncos
12. Los Angeles Rams
13. Houston Texans (then a large gap...)
14. Baltimore Ravens (Why yes, I'm still bitter...)