Wednesday, February 19, 2025

Set your markers

God I'd tired of politics.

Partrly, I'm just tired, period.  My wife's 50th birthday was this week, and our plan was to go to Vermont and attend a baking class.  Long story short, we spent three days driving in a combination of freezing rain and whiteout conditions, had one fender bender, made it to Vermont but not to the class, and I was so stressed that I lost seven pounds in four days.  The lesson learned- no trips to the Northeast in February.

But I'm also tired of politics- in large part because we've got two parties that are not only convinced they are right, but that if you support the opposite side there must be something wrong with you.  And it's only gotten worse since the Inauguration.  Trump and his team are making a lot of moves.  And the friends who I have that support him since he's doing a great job and making the tough decisions, while the people who don't like Trump think he's destroying the country.

Fine.  I'm an engineer.  I measure things for a living.  Let's set some parameters and then see the results of Trump's decisions.  I'll try to be as fair an objective as possible.  My goal is simple- come back in a year and check these same numbers, using the same sources, and compare the results.  

I'll give the date and values of when I've started measuring, along with my sources



1)  The current national debt.

Date Measured:   09/19/2025

Source:  US Debt Clock

Current valve:  $36.499 Trillion

Current ratio of US Federal Debt to GDP:  123.02%


2)  US Employment Rate

Not the unemployment rate, which only accounts for people looking for jobs.  This is the percentage of the number of people who have a job as a percentage of the working age population (people beteween the ages of 15 and 64)

Date Mesaured:   January 2025

Source:  US Employment Rate

Current Value:  60.10%


3)  Consumer Price Index

This measures the 12 month change in prices

Date Mesaured:   January 2025

Source:  US Bureau of Labor Statistics

All items:   3.0%

Food:  2.5%

Energy:  1.0%

All items less food and energy:  3.3%


4)  National average fuel price:

Date measured:   02/19/2025

Source:  AAA Fuel Prices

Current Value:  $3.164


5)  Average rent price in the US

Date Measured:   November 2024

Source:  Rentcafe

Current rate:  $1,748


6)  Average and Median US Income:

The average salary is the sum of all income devided by the number of workers.  The median salary is the midpoint, where 50% of the population is above the line and 50% is below the line

Date Measured:  Q4 2024

Source:  SoFi Learn

Current Average Salary:  $63,795

Current Median Salary:  $61,984


7)  Current population below poverty line

Date Measured:   2023

Source:  American Progress

Poverty Threshold:  $30,900 for a family of four

Poverty Rate:  11.1%


I welcome other parameters.  They should be objective, easy to understand, and easy to check.

Monday, January 6, 2025

2024-2025 NFL Playoffs Support Rankings

Another year, another set of NFL Playoffs.  I'm ranking the 14 playoff teams by two methods- are they likely to win the Super Bowl, and who I want to win the Super Bowl.




Let's do the 'likely to win' rating first:

  1. Detroit Lions
  2. Kansas City Chiefs
  3. Buffalo Bills
  4. Minnesota Vikings
  5. Philadelphia Eagles
  6. Baltimore Ravens
  7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
  8. Washington Commanders
  9. Los Angeles Chargers
  10. Green Bay Packers
  11. Pittsburgh Steelers
  12. Los Angeles Rams
  13. Houston Texans
  14. Denver Broncos
This is an exciting year.  Three franchises that have never won the Super Bowl (the Lions, Bills, and Vikings) have a legitimate shot to win it all this year.  The Bills and Vikings have lost in heartbreaking fashion, while the Lions have never even made the Super Bowl.

The Chiefs have the best record- but keep winning by relatively slim margins.  And they've won te last two Super Bowls.  I don't hate the Chiefs, but I really want to see some new blood win.

My ranking for who I want to win:

  1. Detroit Lions
  2. Buffalo Bills
  3. Minnesota Vikings (then a gap)
  4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Baker winning would be a chefs kiss, as a former Browns fan)
  5. Los Angeles Chargers (the Chargers have never won the Super Bowl, either)
  6. Green Bay Packers
  7. Pittsburgh Steelers
  8. Kansas City Chiefs (great team; just don't need to see them again)
  9. Washington Commanders
  10. Philadelphia Eagles
  11. Denver Broncos
  12. Los Angeles Rams
  13. Houston Texans (then a large gap...)
  14. Baltimore Ravens (Why yes, I'm still bitter...)