NFL Predictions 2023-2024

My main theories going into these predictions:

1. Good franchises find ways to win games they should not
2. Bad franchises find ways to lose games they should not
3. Once a franchise is good or bad, expect them to stay that way until proven otherwise

My guess as the Super Bowl LVIII Champions

NFC

East:

Philadelphia 12-5

Dallas 11-6 (Wild Card)

NY Giants 9-8 (Wild Card)

Washington 7-10

Notes:  by far the best divison in the NFC

North:
Detroit 10-7

Minnesota 9-8
Green Bay 7-10

Chicago 5-12

South:
Atlanta 10-7 

Carolina 8-9

New Orleans 7-10

Tampa Bay 5-12

West:
San Francisco 13-4 

Seattle 12-5 (Wild Card)

Los Angeles Rams 5-12
Arizona 2-15 

Playoffs:

Philadelphia over NY Giants

Seattle over Atlanta

Dallas over Detroit

San Francisco over Dallas

Philadelphia over Seattle

Philadelphia over San Francisco



AFC

East:
Buffalo 11-6

Miami 10-7

New England 9-8 
NY Jets 7-10

Note:  ANother tough division- really, any team could finish above .500

North:

Baltimore 11-6

Pittsburgh 11-6 (Wild Card)

Cincinnati 10-7 (Wild Card)

Cleveland 6-11

Note:  Toughest division in the AFC.  A three-way dogfight for the division crown.

South:
Jacksonville 11-6

Tennessee 8-9

Indianapolis 8-9

Houston 4-13

West:

Kansas City 11-6
Los Angeles Chargers 10-7  (Wild Card)
Las Vegas 7-10

Denver 5-12

Playoffs:
Jacksonville over Cincinnati

Buffalo over Pittsburgh

Los Angeles Chargers over Baltimore

Kansas City over Los Angeles Chargers

Buffalo over Jacksonville

Buffalo over Kansas City

Note:  Honestly, any team here could be in the NFC Championship game


Super Bowl: Buffalo 36, Philadelphia 31

2024 election kickoff

A few random thoughts as the GOP had their first primary debate in Milwaukee, kicking off the 2024 Presidential season:

Let the games begin...

1)  The skillset to be elected to a national office and the skillset to actually govern well once elected barely overlap, and seem to be growing further apart over time.  Being entertaining, clever with improv quips, and being able to raise money doesn't really help that much once you've actually won the office.  

2)  The GOP candidates keep acting like there will be an event- an indictment, a health issue, something- that removes former President Trump from the field.  That way, they can appeal to his voters without actually attacking him.

Maybe it's a smart strategy- but I doubt it.  People have been looking for something to cause voters to drop Trump for seven years.  

My question to all of the other candidates- why should the people who voted for Trump in the past vote for you over Trump instead?  What is your case to them?  

Because right not, ignoring Trump- or worse, sucking up to him- is a very bad look for all of you.

3)  I feel bad for Mike Pence.  Remember, the January 6th mob wasn't chanting to hang Joe Biden; they were chanting 'Hang Mike Pence'.  He did the right thing on January 6th and avoided plunging the country into a Constitution Crisis.  As he reward, a mob tried to kill him, his own president backed the mob, and he's despised by both parties.  

He's not my choice for President- I don't agree with him on much.  But I honestly believe he deserves a medal and heroic commendation.

4)  I remain a fan of Nikki Haley.  I don't agree with her on everything, but I think she is more capable of running the country than any of the alternatives.  I think she could win the general election.  But I don't know if the GOP primary voters are interested- she's currently 3rd in polling, but 30 points behind Trump.  

5)  As for the Democrats?  I think Biden's done a very good job- he's reduced unemployment without causing a recession, he's supported the Ukraine without getting us involved in the war.  But he'll be 81 in November, I don't know if he can handle four more years, and I don't have any reason to think that VP Harris is capable of being a good President.  I'll vote for Biden over Trump.  Any other GOP candidate, and my vote is gettable.  

Spitballing the future

 As I type this, the Screen Actors Guild (SAG) and the Writers Guild of America (WGA) are on strike.  This looks like it might be a long strike.  There are issues about compensation and residuals from streaming services- but those will likely be resolved when both the strikes and the Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers (AMPTP) find a number that is acceptable by all parties.

The more significant issue is about the us of Artifical Intelligence (AI) to replace both the actors  and the writers, without compensation.  From the striker's point of view, AI can potentially be used to replace them, costing their careers.  

We've already seem films where special effects have recreated dead actors to have parts in the film- and dead actors do not get paid.  If studios could replace the actors and writers with AI, they would.  

Is this the future of Hollywood?

Is the technology at a point where the fear is realistic?  Maybe not- but the studios certainly act like it's possible.  As a general rule, if the technology exists, it will be used.

Ever since the 19th Century, there has been a fear that technology would replace workers.  In general, with every technology development, some jobs are lost- but more jobs are created.  The computer cost thousand of typists their jobs- and created thousands more for programmers.  

Is AI going to be different?  I don't know.  Technology has made life better for billions of people- and in theory, there will be a point where technology does so much of our work that fewer people need to actually work (or the same number of people work fewer hours).  If- when- we reach that point, we need to rethink the entire world's economy.

Capitalism is the best economic system available because it does the best job encouraging growth.  But if we have reached the point when the technology can provide everyone with their needs, then Capitalism is no longer needed.

I recenlty heard a great phrase- "Rodenberry Socialist".  Based on the world of Star Trek, technology has met the needs for everyone.  We are not at that world yet, and will likely not be close in a hundred years.  But with AI, and three-dimensional printing... we can see the path where something like that is possible.

But that is in the future.  The future may be wonderful, but the current road is bumpy- especially for the strikers.  

No snark

I think I've lost the capacity to appreciate snark.

Not 'lost my sense of humor'.  I still laugh.  Give me the weirdness of Steven Wright, the musical genius of Weird Al Yankovich, the Improv of a 'Whose Line', the jokes of a John Pinette, and I'm laughing as much as I always have.

But snark- defined as 'an attitude or expression of mocking irreverence and sarcasm'- I don't find that stuff amusing anymore.  

I used to.  My basement has a collection of comedy CDs- Bill Hicks, Denis Leary.  I can quote Sam Kinison as much as anyone.  And yet...

The Titan Submersible story...  five people take a submersible down to explore the wreckage of the Titanic.  The vehicle suffered a catastrophic implosion, killing all five.  If they were lucky, their deaths were instantaneous and painless.  It's a tragedy- five people lsot their lives, including a teenager.  

Supposedly, the vehicle was made of materials that weren't qualified to go that deep into the Ocean.  Assuming that's true, there should be anger at the people who were so reckless to attempt something so risky.

There should be anger.  Instead, there's snark.  Mocking laughter at the horrific deaths of five people.  Jokes about the controller, about a dead billionaire.

I've even see people try to justify their jokes- claiming that the world has gone so haywire that they have the right to make fun of a total stranger's death, that because of tragedy A, B and C went unnoticed, that we should mock this tragedy.

I don't get it.  Maybe if I was younger, I would.  It just comes across like people are looking for an excuse to be cruel.  Whatever the problems of the world today, a lack of cruelty isn't one of them.

Robert Frost said, “If we couldn't laugh we would all go insane.”  Maybe.  But we ought to do a better job deciding what is worth laughing about.

Why?

"It is not enough to succeed. Others must fail."

Supposedly, this quote is attributed to Gore Vidal.  or Genghis Khan.  Or Larry Ellison.  But whoever created it... man, it's an ugly sentiment.

Is this something we should take life advice from?

Life's not a zero-sum game.  Never has been.  I'd much rather be middle class now that the richest person in 1916.  Life has gotten better- which means that, for one of us to be successful, the other one doesn't have to lose.  Everyone can be better.  Which is the opposite of the sentence above.

That mentality- the idea that someone has to fail for you to succeed- should be dying.  Instead, it's not only thriving, it's growing.

Look at social media- there are far more stories reported and linked that talk about someone's failure- or the hope for someone's failure.  

A thought experiment.  Keep track of the stories you read online this week.  What is the ratio of positive stories- stories about people or things succeeding- compared to negative stories, tearing down people or ideas?  

I'm as guilty as anyone.  But I'm noticing it more- and I don't like what it says about me.  So I'm trying to stay positive in what feels like a negative era.  

To an extreme?  Maybe.  I've been accused of being nothing but 'rainbows and unicorns' before.  

But I want to succeed.

Hell, I want everyone to succeed.

What's wrong with that?

NBA Lottery: Booking Edition

 The NBA Lottery is on May 16th.  This is a big lottery- not only is their a franchise player in Victor Wembanyama , but the top of the draft has some players that people are raving about:  Scoot Henderson, Brandon Miller, the Thompson Twins.  I don't think the lottery is rigged.... but IF it was, here's how I'd book things.

Victor Wembanyama... a franchise player for some team.

Note:  There's one NBA franchise that I am fan of (The Cleveland Cavaliers) and a couple I despise (Miami Heat).  Outside of that, my rule is to support teams that haven't won the title in a long time, unless I have a reason to support or not support this team

My Crazy Dream Booking: Winners of the lottery- Portland, Indiana, Utah, go 1-3 in some order; Oklahoma City goes 4th

Portland, Indiana, and Utah are all teams that have not won the NBA title since I started following basketball.  None of the teams have tried to tank, and they have a stable franchise that should allow a Wembanyama to flourish.

OKC is in the same boat, but OKC is a newer franchise who moved from Seattle, so I have less sympathy for them.

  
What Should Happen: Winners of the lottery:  San Antonio, Detroit, Orlando, Portland

The bottom five franchises all have a 10% chance or more to win the lottery.  San Antonio has the worst talent, but they are a model of franchise stability, not to mention the greatest coach of all time (IMHO)

What Will Happen: Winners of the lottery:  Charlotte, Houston, Detroit, Chicago

Charlotte is up for sale.  If I was the NBA and the lottery was rigged, I'd make sure Charlotte got the franchise player to raise the selling price (and the money the other owners would get from the sale).

Houston is a major market that is in the middle of a rebuild.  Detroit has young talent that one more player could elevate.  Chicago is a major market with a good team- and owes Orlando their top pick if it's not 1-4.  

What I’m Terrified Will Happen: Dallas, New Orleans, Charlotte, Washington

Dallas and New Orleans have both drafted franchise players (Luka Doncic and Zion Williamson), and can't make the playoffs.  Seems overkill to give either team Wembayana.  Charlotte is a bad franchise.  Washington is boring and on a treadmill.

If I Was Booking This And I Hated You: The Lakers get Victor Wembanyama

This isn't technically possible.  But the Lakers have over a 50 year history of getting players they have no business getting.  

Thoughts with Whiskey- 2023/05/07

Haven't posted in a while, and drinking a Buffalo Trace Bourbon to end the week and ponder some random stray thoughts...

* I don't even care enough about the Royal Family to make fun of them.  If you have an opinion about them, one way or another, great.  

* Overdue to get back on eating healthier...  with the weather getting warmer, going to try making fruit smoothies for breakfast.  Adding some spinach for health and peanut butter for protein and fat.  

* Hated seeing the Cavs lose badly in the first round.  I know they are a young team, and I hope they learn from this and come back next year.  

* Never would have guessed that James Harden would thrive in the playoffs.  If the 76ers get to the Finals, it elevates his place in NBA history.

* The national debt is over 31.5 trillion dollars.  And yet no one in Washington DC is serious about addressing this.  Which means one of two things- either they believe the debt isn't a real problem, or they think it's a problem that the cure (higher taxes and spending cuts) is so much worse that they can't apply it.  I think it's a serious problem that needs to be addressed immediately, and I hope I am wrong.  

* Finished season 3 of The Mandalorian and Season 2 of Single Drunk Female.  Looking for a new show to binge.  Any recommendations?