NBA Predictions 2023-2024

 Eastern Conference:

1.       Boston

2.       Milwaukee

3.       Cleveland

4.       New York

5.       Philadelphia

6.       Miami 

7.       Brooklyn

8.       Orlando

9.       Atlanta

10.     Chicago

11.     Toronto

12.     Indiana

13.     Detroit

14.     Washington

15.     Charlotte 

Playoffs:

·         (play-ins):   Oralndo over Brooklyn; Atlanta over Chicago; Brooklyn over Atlanta

·         Boston over Brooklyn, Milwaukee over Orlando, Cleveland over Miami, New York over Philadelphia

·         Boston over New York, Cleveland over Milwaukee

·         Boston over Cleveland

Western Conference:

1.       Denver

2.       Phoenix

3.       LA Lakers

4.       Oklahoma City

5.       Golden State

6.       Memphis

7.       Sacramento

8.       New Orleans

9.       Minnesota

10.     Dallas

11.     LA Clippers

12.     Utah

13.     Houston

14.     Portland

15.     San Antonio

Playoffs:

·         (play-ins):   Sacramento over New Orleans, Minnesota over Dallas, Minnesota over New Orleans

·         Denver over Minnesota; Phoenix over Sacramento; Memphis over LA Lakers; Oklahoma City over Golden State

·         Oklahoma City over Denver; Phoenix over Memphis

·         Phoenix over Oklahoma City

More notes:

·     The East is weird; the top two teams shook up their roster and improved, on paper.  The only teams I really think are tanking (Charlotte and Washington) are in the East.  And Philadelphia is the team most likely to completely fall apart.  I think the teams that are the most stable (Cleveland and New York) might thrive, at least in the regular season

·     My fear for the Cavaliers is that they might be the next Utah- a great regular season team that doesn't have a playoff gear.  For this year, I have them winning two rounds (including shocking Milwaukee), but not able to voercome Boston

         

·     The West will be a dogfight.  There are eleven teams that can make a good argument.  Someone will finish in the lottery

·     There are four teams (Lakers, Clippers, Phoenix, Golden State) that are old, injury-prone, and top-heavy.  Someone is due for an awful year.  I'm picking the Clippers to fall apart, but I could see any one of these teams having a disaster of a season.

·         MVP?  The top contenders (Embiid, Jokic, Giannis) have all won the award.  I don't like Dallas enough to think Luka will win.  I'm picking Tatum

·         ROY?  Even finishing last in the West, Wembayana will impress enough to win the ROY

·         Finals?  There will be a shakeup in the playoffs, but I do think Boston is built to thrive in the postseason.  The West is a crapshoot; I'm picking Phoenix but won't bet heavily on it (they are two injuries away from the lottery; they are also a healthy year away from winning it all)

       Going with the Celtics to win the title.  After all, Boston's been without a championship long enough.

Going for Title #18

MLB Playoff Predictions 2023:

National League:

Wild Card Round:
- Phillies over Marlins, 2-0
- Brewers over Diamondbacks 2-1

Division Series:
- Braves over Phillies 3-1
- Dodgers over Brewers 3-1

Championship Series:
- Braves over Dodgers 4-2

American League:

Wild Card Round:
- Rangers over Rays, 2-1
- Blue Jays over Twins 2-1

Division Series:
- Orioles over Rangers 3-1
- Blue Jays over Astros 3-2

Championship Series:
- Orioles over Blue Jays 4-1

World Series:

- Atlanta Braves over Baltimore Orioles, 4-2

Rooting rankings:

1. Texas Rangers
2. Tampa Bay Rays
3. Toronto Blue Jays
4. Baltimore Orioles
5. Atlanta Braves
6. Minnesota Twins
7. Milwaukee Brewers
8. Philadelphia Phillies
9. Arizona Diamondbacks
10. ...
11. ...
12. Los Angeles Dodgers
13. Houston Astros
14. ...
15. ...
16. ...
17. ...
18. Florida Marlins (STILL BITTER ABOUT 1997!)

Your 2023 MLB Champions

Thoughts with Whiskey- 2023-09-14

Tonight's Drink of Choice:  Blade and Bow Bourbon.

* Just returned from a vacation to the Northwest (Portland, Seattle, Vancouver).  It's a gorgeous part of the country- mountains and ocean, not too hot nor too cold.  The scenery is outstanding.  It's expensive, and the traffic is a nightmare- but I completely understand why people love that part of the country.  I love living in Ohio- but I think that part of the country would be my second choice.

* Seattle and Vancouver were fun.  Portland... not so much.  The city has fallen badly since the last time I went there (over 10 years ago).  It's an example of The Broken Window Theory- visible signs of crime and disorder lead to worse conditions.  All three cities had grafitti- only Portland looked (and felt) dirty.  All three cities had homeless people- Portland was the only one of the three that felt unsafe.  

*  But Oregon itself?  Fantastic!

Oregon is beautiful

* The GOP is opening an inquiry to look at Impeaching President Biden:  Of course they are. 

Here's the thing- Biden did do something wrong.  The evidence is clear that Hunter Biden allowed himself to be paid millions of dollars by Burisma, because they believed that having Hunter meant access to (then Vice-President) Joe Biden.  It was an obvious conflict of interest, and Joe Biden should have been much more forceful in vowing that there would be no undue influence.  

Was it wrong?  Absolutely.  Is it impeachable?  Anything is impeachable if you get enough votes.  But I don't think most voters would say Biden should be removed from office over it.

Here's the dilemma- Constitutionally, Impeaching is the only way Congress has to condemn bad behavior from the President.  When your only tool is a hammer, everything looks like a nail.  When your only tool is Impeachment- everything looks impeachable.  We're going to see a lot more Impeachment hearings in the future unless this gets changed- no matter who the President is.

So we'll go through this hearing, taking up our time, when what Congress needs is some partial measure- a declaration of condemning the President's behavior- that could be argued, voted on, and moved on.  

* Football season has started, and for the first time in almost a decade, I'm in a fantasy football league.  I sat down the wrong QB, but somehow managed to win the game.  Don't ask me how.  

* I do feel bad for fans of the New York Jets.  They went all in on winning this year, and now their season is over when Aaron Rodgers tore his ACL.  I root for Buffalo (and how the hell did they lose that game?), and I felt bad for the Jets.

NFL Predictions 2023-2024

My main theories going into these predictions:

1. Good franchises find ways to win games they should not
2. Bad franchises find ways to lose games they should not
3. Once a franchise is good or bad, expect them to stay that way until proven otherwise

My guess as the Super Bowl LVIII Champions

NFC

East:

Philadelphia 12-5

Dallas 11-6 (Wild Card)

NY Giants 9-8 (Wild Card)

Washington 7-10

Notes:  by far the best divison in the NFC

North:
Detroit 10-7

Minnesota 9-8
Green Bay 7-10

Chicago 5-12

South:
Atlanta 10-7 

Carolina 8-9

New Orleans 7-10

Tampa Bay 5-12

West:
San Francisco 13-4 

Seattle 12-5 (Wild Card)

Los Angeles Rams 5-12
Arizona 2-15 

Playoffs:

Philadelphia over NY Giants

Seattle over Atlanta

Dallas over Detroit

San Francisco over Dallas

Philadelphia over Seattle

Philadelphia over San Francisco



AFC

East:
Buffalo 11-6

Miami 10-7

New England 9-8 
NY Jets 7-10

Note:  ANother tough division- really, any team could finish above .500

North:

Baltimore 11-6

Pittsburgh 11-6 (Wild Card)

Cincinnati 10-7 (Wild Card)

Cleveland 6-11

Note:  Toughest division in the AFC.  A three-way dogfight for the division crown.

South:
Jacksonville 11-6

Tennessee 8-9

Indianapolis 8-9

Houston 4-13

West:

Kansas City 11-6
Los Angeles Chargers 10-7  (Wild Card)
Las Vegas 7-10

Denver 5-12

Playoffs:
Jacksonville over Cincinnati

Buffalo over Pittsburgh

Los Angeles Chargers over Baltimore

Kansas City over Los Angeles Chargers

Buffalo over Jacksonville

Buffalo over Kansas City

Note:  Honestly, any team here could be in the NFC Championship game


Super Bowl: Buffalo 36, Philadelphia 31

2024 election kickoff

A few random thoughts as the GOP had their first primary debate in Milwaukee, kicking off the 2024 Presidential season:

Let the games begin...

1)  The skillset to be elected to a national office and the skillset to actually govern well once elected barely overlap, and seem to be growing further apart over time.  Being entertaining, clever with improv quips, and being able to raise money doesn't really help that much once you've actually won the office.  

2)  The GOP candidates keep acting like there will be an event- an indictment, a health issue, something- that removes former President Trump from the field.  That way, they can appeal to his voters without actually attacking him.

Maybe it's a smart strategy- but I doubt it.  People have been looking for something to cause voters to drop Trump for seven years.  

My question to all of the other candidates- why should the people who voted for Trump in the past vote for you over Trump instead?  What is your case to them?  

Because right not, ignoring Trump- or worse, sucking up to him- is a very bad look for all of you.

3)  I feel bad for Mike Pence.  Remember, the January 6th mob wasn't chanting to hang Joe Biden; they were chanting 'Hang Mike Pence'.  He did the right thing on January 6th and avoided plunging the country into a Constitution Crisis.  As he reward, a mob tried to kill him, his own president backed the mob, and he's despised by both parties.  

He's not my choice for President- I don't agree with him on much.  But I honestly believe he deserves a medal and heroic commendation.

4)  I remain a fan of Nikki Haley.  I don't agree with her on everything, but I think she is more capable of running the country than any of the alternatives.  I think she could win the general election.  But I don't know if the GOP primary voters are interested- she's currently 3rd in polling, but 30 points behind Trump.  

5)  As for the Democrats?  I think Biden's done a very good job- he's reduced unemployment without causing a recession, he's supported the Ukraine without getting us involved in the war.  But he'll be 81 in November, I don't know if he can handle four more years, and I don't have any reason to think that VP Harris is capable of being a good President.  I'll vote for Biden over Trump.  Any other GOP candidate, and my vote is gettable.  

Spitballing the future

 As I type this, the Screen Actors Guild (SAG) and the Writers Guild of America (WGA) are on strike.  This looks like it might be a long strike.  There are issues about compensation and residuals from streaming services- but those will likely be resolved when both the strikes and the Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers (AMPTP) find a number that is acceptable by all parties.

The more significant issue is about the us of Artifical Intelligence (AI) to replace both the actors  and the writers, without compensation.  From the striker's point of view, AI can potentially be used to replace them, costing their careers.  

We've already seem films where special effects have recreated dead actors to have parts in the film- and dead actors do not get paid.  If studios could replace the actors and writers with AI, they would.  

Is this the future of Hollywood?

Is the technology at a point where the fear is realistic?  Maybe not- but the studios certainly act like it's possible.  As a general rule, if the technology exists, it will be used.

Ever since the 19th Century, there has been a fear that technology would replace workers.  In general, with every technology development, some jobs are lost- but more jobs are created.  The computer cost thousand of typists their jobs- and created thousands more for programmers.  

Is AI going to be different?  I don't know.  Technology has made life better for billions of people- and in theory, there will be a point where technology does so much of our work that fewer people need to actually work (or the same number of people work fewer hours).  If- when- we reach that point, we need to rethink the entire world's economy.

Capitalism is the best economic system available because it does the best job encouraging growth.  But if we have reached the point when the technology can provide everyone with their needs, then Capitalism is no longer needed.

I recenlty heard a great phrase- "Rodenberry Socialist".  Based on the world of Star Trek, technology has met the needs for everyone.  We are not at that world yet, and will likely not be close in a hundred years.  But with AI, and three-dimensional printing... we can see the path where something like that is possible.

But that is in the future.  The future may be wonderful, but the current road is bumpy- especially for the strikers.  

No snark

I think I've lost the capacity to appreciate snark.

Not 'lost my sense of humor'.  I still laugh.  Give me the weirdness of Steven Wright, the musical genius of Weird Al Yankovich, the Improv of a 'Whose Line', the jokes of a John Pinette, and I'm laughing as much as I always have.

But snark- defined as 'an attitude or expression of mocking irreverence and sarcasm'- I don't find that stuff amusing anymore.  

I used to.  My basement has a collection of comedy CDs- Bill Hicks, Denis Leary.  I can quote Sam Kinison as much as anyone.  And yet...

The Titan Submersible story...  five people take a submersible down to explore the wreckage of the Titanic.  The vehicle suffered a catastrophic implosion, killing all five.  If they were lucky, their deaths were instantaneous and painless.  It's a tragedy- five people lsot their lives, including a teenager.  

Supposedly, the vehicle was made of materials that weren't qualified to go that deep into the Ocean.  Assuming that's true, there should be anger at the people who were so reckless to attempt something so risky.

There should be anger.  Instead, there's snark.  Mocking laughter at the horrific deaths of five people.  Jokes about the controller, about a dead billionaire.

I've even see people try to justify their jokes- claiming that the world has gone so haywire that they have the right to make fun of a total stranger's death, that because of tragedy A, B and C went unnoticed, that we should mock this tragedy.

I don't get it.  Maybe if I was younger, I would.  It just comes across like people are looking for an excuse to be cruel.  Whatever the problems of the world today, a lack of cruelty isn't one of them.

Robert Frost said, “If we couldn't laugh we would all go insane.”  Maybe.  But we ought to do a better job deciding what is worth laughing about.