Wednesday, December 27, 2023

Wrapping up 2023: A Low Key Terrible Year

 Goodbye 2023.  And honestly, good riddance.



It's been a low-key terrible year.  I've been through years that were worse, on a personal level and on a world-wide level (one obvious example:  2001).  But 2023 seemed to be bad on multiple levels without ever getting too deep in it's misery.  It was a low-level fever that never broke- and very little good to come from it.

Take the Ukraine-Russian war.  It continued throughout 2023, no closer to a resolution than it was at the start of the year.  The casualities are near half a million- and if there is any hope that it will be ending soon, I am not hearing about it.

Then add the growing fighting in the Middle East.  Hamas' attack on October 7th wasn't an invasion; it was a group of thugs trying to provoke a fight by abusing innocent people.  Neither Israel nor Palestine will have peace or safety as long as Hamas exists.  

It feels like we are in a slow-moving growing worldwide conflict, and that there is nothing that can be done to avoid it.  Just a growing sense of dread.

On the US Front, it feels similar (though not nearly as deadly).  Barring some shocking election results in the primary, we are headed towards a 2020 Presidential rematch that no one wants.  It's up to the voters to select someone other than Biden or Trump; according to the polls, that isn't likely to happen.  

Even the entertainment seems dreary.  The Dodgers have just spent over $1,145,000,000.00 on baseball players this offseason.  Yeah, they'll be a superteam.  Is that going to be enjoyable to watch, even for them?

If I dig down, I can find some good news; the strikes for the writers and actors was resolved.  Inflation hasn't been beaten, but we've managed to hit a balance to raise the interest rates enough to lower inflation without causing a recession.  But even that seems fleeting.

There's been worse years.  But 2023 just seems to be dreary.  

Here's hoping the next year is better.

Thursday, November 16, 2023

Goodbye, X

 I left 'X' (the former Twitter) today.  Deactivated my account permanently.  I'd been on the site since... 2009?  Something like that.

Goodbye


Mainly, I was following the Marie Kondo question- "Does this bring joy?"- and more and more, the answer was a resounding 'no'.  The original concept of Twitter- a place where anyone could post a short message- was great.  People could put up short messages, break news, come up with witty quips.  I followed a lot of people on the site; not only friends, but whoever was in a field that interested me; poker players, professional wrestlers, chefs (I picked up a ton of recipes).  

Was there politics?  Absolutely- I followed several people, not only people who I agreed with (Jonah Goldberg, Megan McArdle), but people I disagreed with (Matthew Yglesias) to see their opinion.  

But over time, the site got more and more toxic.  And yes, part of the blame belongs to Elon Musk- a man who has some brains and a ton of resources and seems to be using them to be a player in a culture war.  But he just greased the skids- this has been coming for a long time.

Social media- Twitter, Facebook, TikTok, etc- has been a powerful tool.  It's given everyone access to a megaphone that can be heard across the planet.  But it's a tool that we've abused, and one that I don't think we are ready to handle properly.  The rise of social media has been accompanied by a rise of depression, and we as a species are far more toxic to each other than we were 30 years ago.  

I would have guessed a tool that would let us see the insights of everyone on the planet would help us understand each other.  On this, I've been proven wrong so far.

Much like the Supercomputer in Wargames, I've realized that social media is a strange game, and the only winning move is not to play.  So I've withdrawn from the world's megaphone.  I don't expect to ever be back.


Sunday, November 5, 2023

Going Infinite: Thoughts about SBF, Crypto, and the Cult of Personality

 I have finished Going Infinite, Michael Lewis' book about Sam Bankman-Fried and the Rise and Fall of FTX.  A few thoughts:

Would you give this man 15 billion dollars?


1)  Bankman-Fried has been found guilty of seven counts of fraud, and I firmly believe the evidence is correct and that he is guilty.  What I don't know is if his intention was to actually steal the money or he was just so criminally reckless with the money that it's missing or taken by other people.  The book is full of stories about how little he paid attention to any sort of guardrails to protect the financial interests of either himself or the people around him.

2)  Lewis is a great writer. (he did a better job explaining the 2008 financial crisis to me than anyone else in his book The Big Short).  He also finds Bankman-Fried a fascinating character, and paints him in a better light than most people expect.  Lewis doesn't hide the facts, but when his opinion comes out, it is more favorable on Bankman-Fried than you would expect.

3)  Bankman-Fried comes across (in my own opinion) as an idiot savant.  He's brilliant, especially at lateral thinking.  But he's also incapable of empathy, and not only believes he is smart, but that there is no point listening to other people.  At one point in the book, when he talks about how outsiders want him to bring in a CFO (Chief Financial Officer), his quote from the book:

"There's a functional religion around the CFO," said Sam.  "I'll ask them, 'Why do I need one?'  Some people cannot articulate a single thing the CFO is supposed to do.  They'll say 'keep track of the money' or 'make projections.'  I'm like, What the fuck do you think I do all day?  You think I don't know how much money we have?"

I think we see how that turned out.

4)  Here's my big question:  Why the hell did so many people give this guy so much money?  He had investors giving him 15 billion dollars.  That's $15,000,000,000.00  

I get that he's smart.  Big deal- I know lots of smart people.  I wouldn't give them my life savings.  

This isn't a Theranos situation, where the company outright lied about what they were capable of doing.  I can understand investors falling for that.  But even after reading the book, I don't understand either what his business model was supposed to be, nor why would people trust that this reckless sociopath would be the place to invest.


I admit that I'm biased- I've gone from being a skeptic of Cryptocurrency to now believing it is a complete scam.  So when a company based around Cryptocurrency is found out to be guilty of fraud, it just reinforces my beliefs.  But obviously a lot of people trusted his company- and specifically, trusted him.  Investors have decided to investor in the founder, even though they've been burned so many times before.  You'd think that people who were responsible for other people's money would expect more safeguards than invest because they think the founder is the next Steve Jobs.


Sam Bankman-Fried is an odd character; I enjoyed the book Michael Lewis wrote about him.  But I'm glad I never invested a dime in him- and I don't understand why others did.


 

Wednesday, October 11, 2023

NBA Predictions 2023-2024

 Eastern Conference:

1.       Boston
2.       Milwaukee
3.       Cleveland
4.       New York
5.       Philadelphia
6.       Miami 

7.       Brooklyn
8.       Orlando
9.       Atlanta
10.     Chicago


11.     Toronto
12.     Indiana
13.     Detroit
14.     Washington
15.     Charlotte 


Playoffs:
·         (play-ins):   Oralndo over Brooklyn; Atlanta over Chicago; Brooklyn over Atlanta
·         Boston over Brooklyn, Milwaukee over Orlando, Cleveland over Miami, New York over Philadelphia
·         Boston over New York, Cleveland over Milwaukee
·         Boston over Cleveland


Western Conference:


1.       Denver
2.       Phoenix
3.       LA Lakers
4.       Oklahoma City
5.       Golden State
6.       Memphis

7.       Sacramento
8.       New Orleans
9.       Minnesota
10.     Dallas

11.     LA Clippers
12.     Utah
13.     Houston
14.     Portland
15.     San Antonio








Playoffs:
·         (play-ins):   Sacramento over New Orleans, Minnesota over Dallas, Minnesota over New Orleans
·         Denver over Minnesota; Phoenix over Sacramento; Memphis over LA Lakers; Oklahoma City over Golden State
·         Oklahoma City over Denver; Phoenix over Memphis
·         Phoenix over Oklahoma City




More notes:
·     The East is weird; the top two teams shook up their roster and improved, on paper.  The only teams I really think are tanking (Charlotte and Washington) are in the East.  And Philadelphia is the team most likely to completely fall apart.  I think the teams that are the most stable (Cleveland and New York) might thrive, at least in the regular season

·     My fear for the Cavaliers is that they might be the next Utah- a great regular season team that doesn't have a playoff gear.  For this year, I have them winning two rounds (including shocking Milwaukee), but not able to voercome Boston
         

·     The West will be a dogfight.  There are eleven teams that can make a good argument.  Someone will finish in the lottery

·     There are four teams (Lakers, Clippers, Phoenix, Golden State) that are old, injury-prone, and top-heavy.  Someone is due for an awful year.  I'm picking the Clippers to fall apart, but I could see any one of these teams having a disaster of a season.


·         MVP?  The top contenders (Embiid, Jokic, Giannis) have all won the award.  I don't like Dallas enough to think Luka will win.  I'm picking Tatum

·         ROY?  Even finishing last in the West, Wembayana will impress enough to win the ROY

·         Finals?  There will be a shakeup in the playoffs, but I do think Boston is built to thrive in the postseason.  The West is a crapshoot; I'm picking Phoenix but won't bet heavily on it (they are two injuries away from the lottery; they are also a healthy year away from winning it all)

       Going with the Celtics to win the title.  After all, Boston's been without a championship long enough.

Going for Title #18


Tuesday, October 3, 2023

MLB Playoff Predictions 2023:

National League:

Wild Card Round:
- Phillies over Marlins, 2-0
- Brewers over Diamondbacks 2-1


Division Series:
- Braves over Phillies 3-1
- Dodgers over Brewers 3-1


Championship Series:
- Braves over Dodgers 4-2


American League:

Wild Card Round:
- Rangers over Rays, 2-1
- Blue Jays over Twins 2-1


Division Series:
- Orioles over Rangers 3-1
- Blue Jays over Astros 3-2


Championship Series:
- Orioles over Blue Jays 4-1


World Series:

- Atlanta Braves over Baltimore Orioles, 4-2


Rooting rankings:

  1. Texas Rangers
  2. Tampa Bay Rays
  3. Toronto Blue Jays
  4. Baltimore Orioles
  5. Atlanta Braves
  6. Minnesota Twins
  7. Milwaukee Brewers
  8. Philadelphia Phillies
  9. Arizona Diamondbacks
  10. ...
  11. ...
  12. Los Angeles Dodgers
  13. Houston Astros
  14. ...
  15. ...
  16. ...
  17. ...
  18. Florida Marlins (STILL BITTER ABOUT 1997!)


Your 2023 MLB Champions


Thursday, September 14, 2023

Thoughts with Whiskey- 2023-09-14

Tonight's Drink of Choice:  Blade and Bow Bourbon.


* Just returned from a vacation to the Northwest (Portland, Seattle, Vancouver).  It's a gorgeous part of the country- mountains and ocean, not too hot nor too cold.  The scenery is outstanding.  It's expensive, and the traffic is a nightmare- but I completely understand why people love that part of the country.  I love living in Ohio- but I think that part of the country would be my second choice.

* Seattle and Vancouver were fun.  Portland... not so much.  The city has fallen badly since the last time I went there (over 10 years ago).  It's an example of The Broken Window Theory- visible signs of crime and disorder lead to worse conditions.  All three cities had grafitti- only Portland looked (and felt) dirty.  All three cities had homeless people- Portland was the only one of the three that felt unsafe.  

*  But Oregon itself?  Fantastic!

Oregon is beautiful



* The GOP is opening an inquiry to look at Impeaching President Biden:  Of course they are. 

Here's the thing- Biden did do something wrong.  The evidence is clear that Hunter Biden allowed himself to be paid millions of dollars by Burisma, because they believed that having Hunter meant access to (then Vice-President) Joe Biden.  It was an obvious conflict of interest, and Joe Biden should have been much more forceful in vowing that there would be no undue influence.  

Was it wrong?  Absolutely.  Is it impeachable?  Anything is impeachable if you get enough votes.  But I don't think most voters would say Biden should be removed from office over it.

Here's the dilemma- Constitutionally, Impeaching is the only way Congress has to condemn bad behavior from the President.  When your only tool is a hammer, everything looks like a nail.  When your only tool is Impeachment- everything looks impeachable.  We're going to see a lot more Impeachment hearings in the future unless this gets changed- no matter who the President is.

So we'll go through this hearing, taking up our time, when what Congress needs is some partial measure- a declaration of condemning the President's behavior- that could be argued, voted on, and moved on.  

* Football season has started, and for the first time in almost a decade, I'm in a fantasy football league.  I sat down the wrong QB, but somehow managed to win the game.  Don't ask me how.  

* I do feel bad for fans of the New York Jets.  They went all in on winning this year, and now their season is over when Aaron Rodgers tore his ACL.  I root for Buffalo (and how the hell did they lose that game?), and I felt bad for the Jets.



Wednesday, August 30, 2023

NFL Predictions 2023-2024

My main theories going into these predictions:

  1. Good franchises find ways to win games they should not
  2. Bad franchises find ways to lose games they should not
  3. Once a franchise is good or bad, expect them to stay that way until proven otherwise


My guess as the Super Bowl LVIII Champions

NFC


East:

Philadelphia 12-5
Dallas 11-6 (Wild Card)
NY Giants 9-8 (Wild Card)
Washington 7-10

Notes:  by far the best divison in the NFC


North:
Detroit 10-7
Minnesota 9-8
Green Bay 7-10
Chicago 5-12

South:
Atlanta 10-7 
Carolina 8-9
New Orleans 7-10
Tampa Bay 5-12

West:
San Francisco 13-4 
Seattle 12-5 (Wild Card)
Los Angeles Rams 5-12
Arizona 2-15 


Playoffs:
Philadelphia over NY Giants
Seattle over Atlanta
Dallas over Detroit

San Francisco over Dallas
Philadelphia over Seattle

Philadelphia over San Francisco



AFC

East:
Buffalo 11-6
Miami 10-7
New England 9-8 
NY Jets 7-10

Note:  ANother tough division- really, any team could finish above .500

North:
Baltimore 11-6
Pittsburgh 11-6 (Wild Card)
Cincinnati 10-7 (Wild Card)
Cleveland 6-11

Note:  Toughest division in the AFC.  A three-way dogfight for the division crown.

South:
Jacksonville 11-6
Tennessee 8-9
Indianapolis 8-9
Houston 4-13

West:
Kansas City 11-6
Los Angeles Chargers 10-7  (Wild Card)
Las Vegas 7-10
Denver 5-12




Playoffs:
Jacksonville over Cincinnati
Buffalo over Pittsburgh
Los Angeles Chargers over Baltimore

Kansas City over Los Angeles Chargers
Buffalo over Jacksonville

Buffalo over Kansas City

Note:  Honestly, any team here could be in the NFC Championship game


Super Bowl: Buffalo 36, Philadelphia 31