Saturday, April 19, 2014

Requiem for a lost NBA Season

The NBA Regular Season is over, and I'll post my playoff predictions later.  For now, I want to reflect on my Cleveland Cavaliers.

This was not the worst season I have experienced as a fan.  It may have been the most disappointing.  On paper, the Cavs improved by nine wins.  But there were too many games that the team didn't appear to try, that they threw in the towel.  Rumors of locker room fights.  A #1 draft pick that is screaming a 'bust'.  Andrew Bynum.

The GM was fired.  I thought Chris Grant did a great job on paper.  Kyrie was the best pick possible.  Tristan Thompson and Dion Waiters were considered reaches, but when you look at who the alternatives were, I thought they were reasonable choices.  Anthony Bennett- I'll get to him in a little bit.

But Grant's fatal flaw was that he drafted for talent, and not for chemistry.  Basketball, much more than baseball, relies on the team working together and creating something bigger than the parts.  So far, the individual players haven't shown they can work as a team on a consistent basis.  They have shown flashes- and when they do, the team looks amazing- but it only lasts for a quarter or a half, and by the next game it doesn't appear again.

Should the blame be put on Mike Brown for not making them work together better?  Sure, some.  But it's also his first year with any of these players- and Brown's teams have always started slow and done better as the year goes on.  With a young team like the Cavs, they should get better in years 2 and 3.

Anthony Bennett- here's my 'foot in mouth' statement that can be thrown back at me.  I think, in ten years, Bennett will be one of the three best players in the draft class of 2013.  He's young, he has talent.  Yes, he was a complete bust.  But he's 20, and his flaw (conditioning) can be overcome.  A player like Victor Oladipo won't ever learn to be a consistent 20ppg player.  If Bennett stays in shape- and I think he will- and he stays healthy- he will improve tremendously next year.

So- where do we go from here?  There are a lot of open questions, and I'll go down the list:

1)  Will Kyrie sign?  This one is actually very simple.  In July, Kyrie can be offered a five year extension.  He can either accept, or refuse, take a one year contract, and then work towards becoming an unrestricted free agent.

I will be shocked if Kyrie doesn't sign.  Partly because- who leaves $80 million on the table?  And also- if Kyrie refuses, the fans will turn on him viciously.  LeBron James left without notice- Kyrie could, in theory, have to play a full year as a pariah. 

If he doesn't sign, the Cavs will look for a trade offer- but they'd have to be blown away.  Otherwise, the next year will be ugly for everyone around.  But I don't think that will happen.

2)  Who is the GM?  After Grant was fired,David Griffin became the interim GM.  He made one trade (Spencer Hawes) that looks good for the Cavs.  More importantly, the team improved (the team was 17-16 after Griffin took over).  I think he deserves the chance to run the team.

3)  Who is the Coach? Remember- despite everything that has happened, the Cavs improved by nine games.  I would keep Mike Brown, unless Kyrie insisted on a different coach before an extension.  And if Kyrie insisted on that, he'd better deliver.

4)  Free Agents.  The Cavs have two free agents.  Luol Deng and Spencer Hawes.  I like both players, but Deng will demand $12 million a year for 4 years.  He's had injury problems, and while he is a good player, the team didn't turn around with him.  

Hawes is younger, plays Center, works well with Kyrie, and will cost about $8 million a year.  I think he can be resigned, and hope the Cavs pursue this.

5)  The Draft.  The draft takes play in June, and Kyrie's status won't be resolved until July.  Damn.  OK, the Cavs have enough project players.  They really need a few things:
   *  Small Forward
   *  Three point shooter
   *  Shot blocking Center

Before the lottery, the Cavs are projected to pick ninth.  Someone like Doug McDermott fits the bill.

If, on the other hand, the Cavs think they will need to trade Kyrie, they will need a point guard- an Tyler Ennis should still be on the board.


Overall- a disappointing season, and one I will be glad to move on from.  But hope springs eternal...

 PS- you'll notice I haven't mentioned that LeBron can opt out and become a free agent.  He can- but he won't come to Cleveland.  LeBron has his priorities, but the fans of Northeast Ohio are not one of them.


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