Fail

A good rule to follow is that "A bad process will inevitably lead to bad results".  Not that a good system will always lead to good results, or that a bad process is always wrong.  But a flow system will inevitably lead to poor results, and that's why the method for getting results is so important.

Yesterday had two examples of this:  The College BCS Final and The Baseball Hall of Fame.

Now, I admit I'm not a college football fan, so anything I say should be accepted with a grain of salt.  But there are 120 college football teams eligible for the BCS, and they all only play 10-12 games a year.  There's not enough information to try to select the two best teams and have them each other, then proclaiming the winner the champion of college football. 

There's too many scenarios that can screw things up.  Too many teams can be undefeated, leading to a team winning every game they can and not being in the game to detemine the champion.  Or not enough teams are undefeated, leading to a formula to pick the best team based on schedule, etc.  Which is great for figuring things out on paper, but they actually play the game out on the field.

This year is a perfect example.  LSU was ranked #1, and Alabama was ranked #2.  Alabama already had one loss- to LSU.  So teams like Stanford and Oklahoma State, who also only had one loss, were locked out of "the title game".  Alabama beat LSU, and now Alabama is crowned the champion.

And they might be the best team in college football.  But I'm sure the fans of the other schools wanted the opportunity to find out, but did not have the opportunity.

Flawed system, flawed result.

Same with the baseball Hall of Fame.  The system is simple- writers with enough experience are allowed to vote on eligible candidates.  If a candidate gets 75% of the vote, they are enshrined in the Hall of Fame.

Here's the problem- the writers can use any criteria they want to make their choices.  And a lot of the writers are biased or uninformed.

For instance, a large bloc of writers have decided not to support any candidate who has been caught with steroids.  So Mark McGwire, who in a different era would be a first ballot Hall of Famer, can't crack the 20% line. 

And Alan Trammell, who is one of the best ten shortstops of all time, can't make the Hall of Fame- while Catfish Hunter sailed in on the first ballot.

And now, Jeff Bagwell- probably a top five first baseman- only received 56% of the votes.  So 44% of the writers don't think he belong in the Hall of Fame.

They don't need to explain their votes, or justify.  You can't argue with them, because they can say "I don't fell he's a Hall of Famer".  And that's enough.

Flawed System, Flawed Results. 

Predictions for 2012

Politics:

* Mitt Romney wins the GOP Nomination.  He finishes in the top 3 in Iowa, which neither Gingrich nor Perry can do.  After Super Tuesday, he has such a large lead (and his opponents split among too many candidates) that it will be impossible to stop him.

* He picks Tim Pawtenly as his VP nominee, though rumors abound that he considers Condaleeza Rice

* President Obama retains Joe Biden as his VP, despite rumors of a swap with Hilary Clinton

* In November, the Romney/Pawtenly ticket wins the Presidency.  The House flips to the Democrats, while the Senate flips to the GOP, continuing a gridlocked government.

Sports:

* The Green Bay Packers beat the Baltimore Ravens in Super Bowl XLVI.

* The Miami Heat win the NBA title over the Memphis Grizzlies, and about 19,000,000 stories will be written about LeBron James 'overcoming his personal demons' to win.

* The LA Angels, having spent enough money on Albert Pujols to buy the salaries for the Boston Red Sox AND the Texas Rangers for next year, still won't make the playoffs. 

* The New York Yankees will beat the Philadelphia Phillies in the World Series

Games and Entertainment:

* Despite having no good reason to continue, the United States ban on online poker will remain

* At Wrestlemania 28, John Cena will defeat the Rock, while CM Punk will retain the WWE title against a heel Daniel Bryan

* 'Avengers' will be good but not great.  'The Dark Knight Rises' will be lacking compared to the first two movies.

Other:

* The world will not end on December 21st.  Mayan experts will be quoted as saying, "Oops."

* I will go through a two month period without posting anything, then post six times within a two week period.  Both of the people who read this blog will appreciate it.

May everyone have a great, safe and happy 2012!

Mighty Bastard's 2011 wrapup!

It's been an interesting year, as it always is.  And my last full year in the 30's.

Household- Katie remains a wonderful wife.  We added a new cat to the household.  The new cat (Pippin) is great- friendly and outgoing.  The old cat (Smokey) is not amused by the interloper.  I'm grateful both have had their front claws removed.

House- both a new water heater, about 2.3 seconds before the old one was going to flood the basement.  Finished work on the kitchen- took out the old floor, added a new oven, looks 1000 times better.  House is still standing. 

Health- Lost one kidney (actually, I know exactly where it's at.  But it's not in me anymore).  Also lost some weight, getting under 210 at one point.  I've bounced back to 219 or so, but the goal of 190 remains. 

Plays- finished our run of "Personals Uncut".  Had a fantastic time, and enjoyed working with everyone.  Haven't had time to try out for anything since then.  Hoping to try again in 2012.

Games- thanks to "Black Friday", the government has protected me from losing $60 in online poker.  Thanks, guys.  I really appreciate it.  We all know what a danger that would be.  And I'm so glad that you've taken care of every other problem in the entire world to make this your biggest issue.  Also saw my first live WWE PPV (Night of Champions, 2011).  Had a great time with Katie, Mike, and Steve. 

Politics- President Obama kept showing in 2011 that he was such a weak President that it was took a group of morons to lose to him.  The GOP kept showing that they could be that exact group of morons.  The GOP voters kept flirting with all sorts of candidates, from Michele Bachmann to Rick Perry to Herman Cain, and even went on a nostalgia run with Newt Gingrich, in an effort to find someone, anyone, besides the one guy who has all of the credentials in the world but can't sell himself to the voters- Mitt Romney.  Next year should be a fascinating race.  Note that "Fascinating" is not the same thing as "Enjoyable".

Sports- my own cynicism for sports reached new heights, and I reveled in the glory of schadenfreude  as the Dallas Mavericks beat Dwayne Wade and his Sidekicks in the NBA finals.  Meanwhile, Major League Baseball realized that everyone won if you just let the big spending teams spend big, as long as you didn't count fans of small market teams.  The NFL avoided a strike at the last minute.  The NBA didn't avoid a strike, lost two months out of the year, and few people noticed.  I continue my  streak as a sports curse, adding the NHL to leagues that "When I root for your team, expect doom".  You're welcome, Colorado Avalanche.  This also extends to my fantasy team, as the "Michael Vick + Darren McFadden" 1-2 punch didn't work as intended.

Here's hoping that everyone has a fantastic holiday season.  Predictions for 2012 coming up in the next week.

The CP3 Debacle

When I heard that the Lakers had acquired Chris Paul, the point guard from the Hornets, my first thought was "Well, they did it again."  The Lakers made out like bandits on a trade.  They always make out like bandits.  I swear, 90% of the history of the NBA is the story of smart franchises (usually either the Lakers or Celtics) swindling the dumb teams.

It wasn't so much the talent exchange- New Orleans came out pretty well with the proposed trade.  Lamar Odom only had a year to go, but Houston was giving up some nice players for Pau Gasol.

What bothered me was that the Gasol had three years at $19 million on his contract.  He's a good player, but he's past his prime, and the last year of the contract he will probably be overpaid.  Which hurts the franchise that has him.  And the Lakers got out of paying the bad year- in exchange, they get a younger, better player who has publicly stated that he didn't want to play for New Orleans, but did want to play for the Lakers.

It's an ugly trend- the best ballplayers only want to play for select markets- usually major media markets and/or cities with great weather.  The same day the trade was announce, Albert Pujols signed a contract and left the St. Louis Cardinals for the Anaheim Angels.  Again, a great player going from a medium market that loved him to a major market.

Which sucks if you root for the small market teams.   I can accept that the larger markets have advantages.  But at some point, the advantages become so overwhelming that rooting for the other teams seem like a lost cause.

So... yeah.  I wasn't happy with the trade.  Then David Stern cancelled the trade.  And, to be honest, it's not fair.  But having gone through the Decision, having seen two Cy Young Award winners traded because the Indians couldn't afford them while the major markets could... it was good to see the unfairness go against a team that traditionally was on the favored side.

Besides, if New Orleans was really losing Paul, they needed to rebuild.  The trade with the Lakers were a nice way to get them on a treadmill- a perpetual contender for the #8 seed but no chance to really improve. 

So Stern voided the trade, and the Lakers stopped trying to get Chris Paul.  Instead, a deal materialized between the Clippers and the Hornets.  The Clippers are also in LA, but they've never been considered an 'elite' team.  And they were offering some great, talented and young players for Paul- especially a top draft pick in next year's draft. 

But now the story is that Stern demanded too much for Paul.  They wanted Bledsoe & Gordon & the #1 pick- really, 2 out of 3 was enough for Chris Paul.  If I was a Hornet's fan, I would have loved that deal. 

So now I don't know.  I don't get what the plan is.  But I don't see any way the players won't stop demanding to go to the major markets.  And I'm not sure what can be done to save the small amrkets from continuing to be the Washington Generals to the superteams.

Suggestions to improve the NBA

OK, I have two suggestions to improve the NBA- one to fix the strike issues, the other to make the game itself more interesting.

1)  Financial Solution:  HARD CAP + FRANCHISE PLAYER

Understand- I'm not in favor of the players or the owners.  I honestly don't care who 'wins' or 'loses' the strike.  But while I want pro basketball back, I don't want it at the expense of the small market teams.  I'm a Cleveland Cavaliers fan, and I want the hope that they have the same chance to put together a winning franchise as the Lakers, Celtics, Bulls or Heat.  If that doesn't happen- if basketball becomes like baseball, with haves and have-nots- then the league can just fold, for all I care.

So here's my solution- institute a hard cap (both overall and per player)... but also allow one "Franchise Player" per franchise.  The normal players can be signed for at most four years and at most $X dollars (where X is based on a 50/50 split). 

The franchise player can be signed for ANY amount of money, and that money does not apply to the cap.  So if the Lakers want to pay Kobe Bryant $75 million a year, they can. 

Why the owners go for it- they reign in the costs of the mid-sized players. 

Why the players go for it- The 50/50 sounds like a bad deal for them- until they realize that the top 30 salaries won't be part of that deal.  The owners would probably need to give up on other issues to make it more palatable, but the players lose in the long haul- and the agents of the best players would love this deal.

As a fan, I know the best players are going to the major markets.  But this means that the major markets can't monopolize the best players.  The Lakers might get Kobe, or Dwight Howard; but they can't get BOTH players.  Not unless one wants to take a major league cut.

2)  Quality of play improvement:  INDIVIDUAL COURTS

Every NBA court is the exact same dimension- same court size; same height of the basket, same three point line.

Why?

One of baseball's best charms is that each stadium is individual and unique, and clubs design their teams around various styles.  Baseball is best when different styles win- the speed of the 85 Cardinals, the power of the 86 Mets, the pitching of the early 90's Braves.

When one style dominates to the point that every team copies it, the game becomes boring.  Both in baseball and basketball.

Here's my solution- allow a range of dimensions for the court, the height of the basket, and the width of the three point line.  Better yet, allow teams to decide if they want a three point shot at all.  Say that you can only change in between seasons, and that you have to keep those dimensions for three years at a minimum.

When a team goes to a NBA court, they play by that team's rules. 

For example:  Indiana has a narrow court and no three point line, so they build around rebounders and slashers.  The Rockets have a wide court and a short three point line, so they build around fast gunners.  The game between the teams looks a lot different in Indiana than in Houston.

Here's the advantages:

1)  Increase the number of successful styles
2)  Makes home court advantage that much more important
3)  Greater use of the entire roster- even teams that don't have three point shooters need them for certain stadiums
4)  More strategies
5)  Makes the teams more unique

I think implementing both ideas would make the gamer much better.  And well... I'm right. 

My feline problem...

Permit me to vent here.  I'm getting near my wit's end, and not sure what the best solution is.

I've had a cat, Smokey, for almost a dozen years.  My brother and I got her from the Cleveland APL, and she's been a great pet.  Generally quiet, occasionally snippy, but always part of the house.

When I first met Katie, I warned her that Smokey was shy and generally hid from people.  An hour later, Smokey was purring on Katie's lap.  I took that as a good sign.

Smokey's getting up in years.  She doesn't run much and climbs the stairs slowly, but the vet confirms she's in good health.

The problem is Pippin.

A month ago, some friends of ours had a problem- they had two cats, but after moving and having a baby, one of the cats (Pippin) was reacting badly, spaying the house.  They needed to either find Pippin a new home or put him down.  And I volunteered to bring Pippin over and see if we could take him in, hoping that without a baby, Pippin would calm down.

To be honest, it's worked out better than I should have hoped.  Pippin is a huge adult cat, but extremely friendly.  Unlike Smokey, who likes to hide, Pippin is always walking around and rubbing against people.  He likes to be petted, and there has been no spaying problem with him at all.

But Smokey is absolutely terrified of him.

In retrospect, I should have realized it.  Both are adult cats, but Pippin is twice her size.  Both Pippin and Smokey are fixed and have their front paws declawed.  I was told that cats take a few weeks to get used to each other, but we're on three weeks now.  Smokey is always either hiding from Pippin or hissing and attempting to strike Pippin.  Twice we've heard a 'yelp' and seen Smokey run and hide under the bed, but weren't able to see what happened exactly.  And now I'm worried Pippin is starting to use Smokey's litter box instead of his own.

I'm at my wit's end here.  I'm open to suggestions here on getting the cats to get along.  We've already bought a diffuser to try and calm Smokey down (Pippin always seems calm), but every day it seems like a case of "one step forward, two steps back" with the cats reacting to each other.  For my own sanity's sake, I can't have the cats being this neurotic around each other.

I've talked to Scott, and taking Pippin to the APL is a possibility.  Since we know Pippin doesn't spay, he can be adopted.  But I really hate the idea of taking an adult cat to the APL- it's too easy for him not to be adopted at his age.

I'm asking my facebook friends if anyone would be interested in adopting Pippin.  He's a fantastic cat, and can make a wonderful pet.  I don't want to get rid of him, and if I do I want to make sure he's going to a good home. 

Volunteers and suggestions welcomed.

Profit from the NHL!

I'd like too announce my new income-generating plan.

It's well-known that I, Mike Sonby, am a walking sports curse. My resume:

* Longtime Chicago Cubs fan

* Current Cleveland Indians fan

* Current Cleveland Browns fan

* Current Cleveland Cavaliers fan

* University of Cincinnati Alumni

Last year, I followed NHL hockey, and picked the Colorado Avalanche to follow. Injuries quickly obliterated this team, and a promising contender didn't even make the playoffs. So my Sports Curse DOES carry over to the NHL.

Now- I'm open minded. I can root for ANY NHL team. Even yours.

　

I'll let that sink in for a bit before continuing...

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HOWEVER, for a small fee, I can be convinced to follow a different team than the one you support. My 25+ years of bad luck can be channeled elsewhere, and now towards your team.

I think we can all agree that this money would be well spent. After all, you have a very nice NHL team. It'd be a shame if something bad happened to it...