MLB 2021 Thoughts

Yeah, I know... season's already started.  But some late predictions and comments- trying a different format:

It's like rooting for Amazon or Apple...

If I had to bet money on the World Series, I'd go: Dodgers over Yankees, 4 games to 2.  Dodgers clearly have the most talent in the league- which doesn't mean they are a lock to win.  But if I had to bet, they are the team to go with.

The American League is far more wide open.  I could see seven teams getting hot and winning (Yankees, Rays, Blue Jays, Twins, White Sox, Astros).  But the Yankees have had horrible luck the pasy few years in terms of injuries.  If they stay healthy (big If), they are the most likely to come out of the AL

Team I'm rooting for to win it all this year:  I'm a Cubs and Indians fan, and don't think either will make the playoffs (in fact, I think the Indians might be one of the worst teams in the AL).  I like teams that never won the World Series in my lifetime, which gives me two candidates- the San Diego Padres and the Tampa Rays.  Tampa has had a ton of sports riches, but I'm still bitter about 1984, so let's go Rays.

Most interesting team in baseball in 2021:  The Dodgers, on paper, might be one of the greatest teams ever- but I don't think that necessarily makes them interesting.  The Pirates might be one of the worst teams ever- but again, that doesn't make them interesting.

For interesting- how about the Blue Jays?  A young team with a ton of young, second generation players.  Their hitting looks great- their pitching is either really good (Hyun Jin Ryu, Taijuan Walker) or awful- and pitching is highly variable.  

One final thought:  The Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) expires at the end of the year.  Financially, baseball has a lot of problems.  The Dodgers are spending $226 million on their payroll this year, and a quarter of the league isn't spending 1/3 of that amount.  I don't see how this system can continue- but the CBA isn't between the owners; it's between the owners and the players.  There is a good possibility of a strike after this season, and it might be a long one.  I'm not making any predictions- I'm just going to enjoy baseball this year.

RIP Conservatism

The Conservative movement is dead.  Has been for a while- but the latest spending bill really emphasized the point.  There are still people calling themselves (or calling others) 'Conservatives'- but the real Conservative movement- the one championed by Buckley, Goldwater, Thatcher and Reagan- that movement is dead.  

To understand why it died, start with this premise:  The Conservative movement was made up of four platforms, like a chair with four legs**:

1)  Taking a strong opposition to the Soviet Union

2)  Smaller Government

3)  Social Issues

4)  Lower Taxes

Each of those legs got twisted around over time, for different reasons.

Start with the opposition to the Soviet Union.  That leg disappeared in 1989 along with the Soviet Union.  The Conservative movement succeeded- now what?  During the Presidency of George W Bush, it morphed into the US trying to become the World's Policeman, and looking at the Middle East.  But the Middle East was never the existential threat that the Soviet Union represented, and we (the US) could never decide if it was better to act as the World's Policeman or to walk away from the rest of the world when it comes to tyranny.  We still don't know which is better.

The second leg- smaller government- the Conservatives proved they were never serious about it.  It was a great weapon to use against the Democrats- but when the Conservatives actually had the power to shrink government, they never flinched.  They proved that ratchet theory correct- government grows, but never shrinks.  

So now the 'Conservative' movement is now two legs:  Social Issues and Lower Taxes.  Lower taxes is a non-starter:  you'll notice there are no taxes in the 1.9 trillion spending bill (How is it being financed?  Deficits.  Deficits without end).  So that leaves Social Issues

Social issues morphed over time.  The social issues that people were concerned about 60 years ago aren't the same ones as today.  There's still a few hot button issues- abortion and gun control, for instance.  But mainly, both parties use social issues to rev up their voters.  Voters get geared up about the culture war in a way they don't over economic and foreign policy issues.  And the GOP abandoned the high ground on character in 2016.  As the other three legs withered and died, social issues became all that defined the movement.

The Conservative movement dominated the GOP for fifty years.  But it's now dead, and right now the Republican party is a cult of personality for Donald Trump.  I miss the Conservative movement- not only was it the political movement I grew up with, but I don't see anything that on the horizon to replace it.  

Pour one out for Buckley, for Goldwater, for Reagan, for Thatcher, for the intellectuals and politicians who created the Conservative movement.  You may have despised them, but I preferred them to what is available now.

(**The Democratic Party, by contrast, is made up about 50 legs- different factions with different agendas.  This has advantages and disadvantages)

WandaVision Thoughts

 Fair warning:  Spoilers ahead after finishing the season 1 finale of WandaVision...

2021 Topps Baseball Cards

 I'm very discouraged by the state of baseball in 2021.  But I'm also a longtime collector of baseball cards, and seeing the new sets usually bring me joy...

But baseball cards have become unusually hot lately.  Prices have skyrocketed, and cards are being hoarded.  I was lucky to find one booster pack at Target, and can check out the pack of the Topps set.  Here are my comments:

1)  The front of the card isn't my favorite.  I like the white broder and 70th anniversary emblem, but the blue diagonal stripes are a little distracting.  But at least it looks different- unlike other years, you can easily identify it's the 2021 set.

2)  The back of the cards, however... I think they look great.  They are clean and easily readable.  

3)  The new normal is a ton of varaitions and inserts.  The 2021 has 18 parallels of each card- purple to gold foil to celebrating Mother's Day to.... it's an overabundance.  

4)  And inserts... According to Beckett, the 2021 Topps has 31 different kinds of inserts. Again, it's overkill.

I'm glad I got the cards to check them out.  But I have no desire to spend the money to put together a set.  Maybe if I fall in love with a special insert, I'll go out of my way to get that.  But considering most of my favorite players were in the 70's and 80's and have been long retired, I'll most likely focus on those players instead.

The Lindor trade and the death of hope

 The Cleveland Indians traded Francisco Lindor and Carlos Carrasco to the Mets.

This is bad- and I don't think people realize how bad.  And it has nothing to do with who the Indians receive in this trade (I know very little about those prospects).

The Indians have traded superstar players before.  Joe Carter.  Bartolo Colon.  Cliff Lee.  CC Sabathia.  Kenny Lofton.  Trevor Bauer.  Corey Kluber.  I'm sure I'm missing others.

But this one is worse.  Here's why.

In the past, the trades were explained by one of two conditions:

1)  The team is in horrible shape, and we are trading one of our few good players to rebuild entirely.

That doesn't apply here.  The Indians have done extremely well, and made the playoffs four out of the past five years.

2)  We cannot pay superstar player A- but because we trade him, we can pay B, C and D.

The Indians are not in a case where they have to choose between paying five players the market rate.  They aren't paying anyone.  They have the lowest payroll in baseball- half the next lowest team.

The Indians have been blessed with an abundance of talent over the past five years... and the message the owner, Paul Dolan, has shown has that he will not spend money for this team... ever.

Even if the Indians develop superstar players, those players will not stay with the team.  

It's one thing to tell fans, "We cannot match the salaries of the Dodgers and Yankees.  We have to pick our spots to compete."

It's another to say, "We cannot compete, and we will not try."

That is the message the Indians sent, and that is the message the fans received.

2020: The Year in Review

My summary of 2020:  Kill it with fire.

I've had years that were for me personally- one of my closest friends dying suddenly in her 40's.  The next year, one of my oldest childhood friends passed away.  

The world has had recent years that we were in war and facing terrorism and economic collapse that seemed insurountable.  I can't say that 2020 has been the worst year since I've been alive.  But 2020 has certainly felt like the most depressing year since I've been alive.

COVID struck, killing over 300,000 Americans and over 1.8 million people so far.  My wife and I both caught COVID in October, but fortunately recovered.  

The world is making process on vaccines, and with some luck and skill, the world might be vaccinated from COVID to start getting back to 'normal'.  I put that in quotes because even when COVID abates, so much of our lives will be different from it was from 2019.  Businesses- and entire industries- that died because they couldn't get customers won't be coming back.  Many people (myself included) worked from home, and many of those people will continue to do so.  Epidemics like the 1918 flu and the Black Death changes the world and society, and COVID will also do so- permanently.

We'll adapt to the changes- we always do.  COVID is why 2020 was tragic.  But it wasn't why 2020 was depressing.

In the past, when disaster struck, we as a people bonded together.  The attacks on 9/11 were awful, but we as a country bonded together.  This year, we came across a new challenge- and broke apart.

The country is split between two teams and their defining characteristic is how much they despise the other team.

I always thought politics was like the Yankees-Red Sox rivalry... yeah, you 'hated' the other team.  But when there was a real problem, you ignored your rivalry.  That didn't happen this time.  

And I fear it will continue.  We've elected a new President, and part of me hopes that as Trump recedes in the eyes of everyone, this Culture War will lessen.  But I fear it won't- and I don't know what direction it will go in now.

And it just is exhausting.

Be well, everyone.  I'll try to be more optimistic next time.

Star Wars Thought: The wrong alliance

Finished season 2 of The Mandalorian (Short review-  it's awesome.  Longer review- it expanded the Star Wars Universe and managed to show characters who were shades of grey without going away from the themes of the Universe.  And the characters and stories were inrcredible.  Jon Favreau and Dave Filono are on the short list of creators I will trust with just about any franchise).

One thing I kept noticing- the Empire kept advocating 'Order'.  "Bringing Order to the Galaxy"- that was their justification for waging war on the Republic.  That's what the Empire believed- order over chaos.  Which makes sense.  

But that's not what the Sith believe.  The Sith believe that passion creates strength creates power creates victory (courtesy of Knights of the Old Republic 2).  The Sith don't care about Order, or Discipline... if anything, they advocate the exact opposite of it.

So why are they always allies?

For the original trilogy, and the prequels, the answer is- Emporer Palpatine.  Palpatine viewed the Empire and the Sith as tools to use for his cult of personality.  He told the Empire that he wanted to bring Order to the Universe, and he told Vader to embrace his feelings.  Vader thought he was using the Empire, the Empire thought they were using Vader- and both were being used by the Emporer.

But now that the Emperor is dead?  There's no reason for them to be working together.  The Mandalorian gets around this by not having any Sith.  Their opponents are only the Empire.

But the Sequels (cue my rant about the failure that was the sequels)... they just put the First Order and Kylo Ren together.  And since Ren was the far more interesting character... really, the First Order was nothing more than scrubs for the heroes to level up on until they were ready to face Ren.

And that's a missed opportunity, in my mind.

What if the overall arc of the sequels had been a War between the First Order and the Sith?  Between Order and Chaos?  

It would have taken the sequels in a new direction instead of a rehash.

But wouldn't that have put the Republic- the heroes- on the sidelines?

Not necessarily.  The first movie could have had them acting as heroes trying to save the worlds caught in the crossfire of the Empire-Sith war.  The second movie shows Rey's training (the rebirth of the Jedi), as the Sith (Kylo Ren and his Knights) decimate the Empire...

... which forces the Empire to turn to the Republic for an alliance.

Because the Empire is about Order.  The Sith is about Passion.  The Republic is about Balance and Compassion.  

Which takes the Star Wars Universe to a different path and many more interesting stories.