2023: Predictions and Hopes

 In less than 36 hours, we change over to the new year.  I will celebrate the new year by crossing the Wilford Brimley-Coccon line.

Here are my predictions for what the next twelve months will bring.  The actual key predictions will be underlined.  As always, these are just the ramblings of the author- please do not rely on them when making any decisions, especially financial ones:

1)  Three technologies- Artificial Intelligence, Fusion Energy, and Genetic Editing- will continue to make progress.  In each case, there will be advancements (genetic editing is already being used to treat genetic diseases.) Also in each case, there will be a backlash that will develop, becoming one more front on the US culture war

2)  The Ukraine-Russia war will continue throughout 2023.  As Russia gets caught in a stalemate, they will focus on putting pressure on the Western nations to force Ukraine to come to peace talks, painting Ukraine as the villain if Ukraine won't just give up 'some' of their country.

China, eying Taiwan, is watching closely.  Any sign of weakness on the part of the West will encourage them to find a pretense to invade Taiwan.

3) The US just had their 2022 elections- which means they will gear up for the 2024 Presidential elections.  Each party is facing an existential crisis that will just start heating up over the next year.

The Democrats will need to decide if they trust Joe Biden (who turned 80 last month) as President for four more years.  Someone who is not considered a top tier contender will challenge him on the Democratic side, and every public stumble will have the voters consider throwing their support behind the challenger.   

4)  The GOP needs to decide if they will break off their toxic relationship with Donald Trump.  I think the GOP Establishment saw enough in 2022 to know how toxic he is.  The Establishment will discourage any other contenders from running to anoint Florida Governor Ron DeSantis as the frontrunner to defeat Trump in the primaries and go after Biden in 2024 (much like the Democratics did with Biden in 2020).

5)  Let's go with some more lighthearted areas to wrap this up:

* The Buffalo Bills will defeat the Philadelphia Eagles to win their first Super Bowl Title

* The Boston Celtics will defeat the Denver Nuggets to win the NBA Title

* The Los Angeles Dodgers will defeat the New York Yankees to win the World Series

* "Everything Everywhere All At Once" will win the best Picture of the Year

We will check back in twelve months to see how the predictions fared.

Be well.

GOP- what do you stand for?

 "(They) never miss an opportunity to miss an opportunity."

Israeli diplomat Abba Eban was talking about the Arabs.  But right now, that quote is how I feel about the Republican Party.

Last week, Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky visited the US.   And many (Though thankfully not all) on the right used this as an opportunity to... attack Zelensky.  Examples.  Are.  Plentiful.  

....

....

Umm... guys?  Speaking as a longtime Reagan fan here:  If you can't be accused of being a warmongering savage who wants to nuke the world to stop the evil commies.... what's the point of being a Republican?

Anyone who thinks today's Republicans are cut from the same cloth as the Buckley/Goldwater/Reagan Conservative movement that dominated the GOP from the 1960's through 2000's aren't paying attention.

The 1980's Conservative movement was dominated by four cornerstones:

1)  A strong military built up to stop the Soviet Union

2)  Lower taxes and reduced regulation to help businesses, along with increased free trade

3)  A smaller government in size and scope, encouraging less dependency on the state

4)  The Moral Majority- fighting cultural issues like pornography, abortion, etc.

At times, the cornerstones clashed (given a choice between lower taxes and smaller government, taxes won out every single time).  But the Republican Party stood for something, whether you agreed with it or not.

(Side note:  The Democrat Party, now and back then, didn't have four cornerstones.  They had fifty different groups all pushing for different agendas.  It's not coherent or consistent, but it is a working model)

But now, in 2022?  The Soviet Union collapsed.  Today's right wing seems to have no appetite for a bigger military or a smaller government.

OK, fine... the issues of 2022 are not the same as the issues of 1982.  Trying to keep the exact same platform will likely result in losing.

So what does the Republican Party stand for?  Not the rhetoric- what are they actually willing to vote on and risk losing their seats to support?

I don't know the answer- and I pay enough attention that I should know the answer.  

I've heard people complain about partisanship being high.  I don't mind that- partisanship is always high.  What's different, in my humble opinion, is that the partisanship isn't about anything.  And, ironically, because it's about so little, it makes the vitriol much worse.

Another quote- "Academic politics is the most vicious and bitter form of politics, because the stakes are so low."   That's how I feel about the parties now.  They don't really argue about anything, so the fights are more vicious.

Which party wants to help Ukraine more?  Which party is actually willing to raise taxes?  In the past decade, both parties have had times when they controlled both parts of Congress and the Presidency.  And both times, they find excuses not to do anything significant.  

I don't write about politics anymore (current post being an exception), because it doesn't mean anything.  I don't think either party stands for anything except whatever current trend makes them popular enough to win re-election. 

There's an election coming up in 2024 (there's always another election).  It's an opportunity for the GOP to define what they stand for.  But I fear it's just another opportunity to miss an opportunity. 

Wrapping up 2022; The year we found out.

 2022... what a decade this year has been.

Possibly that's not fair.  It does feel like this year lasted forever, but it's certainly better than 2020 (aka the Plague Year)

If the year had a theme, it feels like this was the year many assumptions over the past decade were called out, faced reality, and did not do well.  Some examples:

- The country of Russia under Putin, which has been portrayed as a World Power, invaded Ukraine and has done poorly against a country that is a fraction of their size.  It seems like the world is in the middle of an experiment... can they put enough pressure on an invading country to leave, without sending troops and escalating the war?  

- The 'genius' of Elon Musk, who bought Twitter for $44 billion (that's $44,000,000,000.00) and became an embarassment as a consequence for his purchase

- Cryptocurrency.  Sam Bankman-Fried, another proclaimed 'genius', has been charged with fraud and has over $8 billion of customer's money is nowhere to be found.  I could never understand cryptocurrency enough to invest in it, but so many people vouched for it that I wondered if there was something I was missing.  Too much fraud has shown Crypto to be a paper tiger.

- The Republican Party.  They spent 2022 replaying the same playbook they did in 2016, and it was a disaster for them.  The economy is doing poorly, the voters are unhappy with the direciton of the country- and they'd still rather give the Democrats another couple of years rather than turn the Seante over to the GOP.  Both parties need to decide what it is exactly that they stand for- but this is especially true for the GOP.  And they don't have much time- the 2024 Presidential election is already underway.

There's a saying of "Fuck Around and Find Out".  Well, 2022 seems to be the year we found out.

So, in a lot of ways, the hype of certain groups was held up to the light, and failed.  Hopefully, we've learned our lessons about listening to the hype without asking questions.

Then again, a Venutre Capital firm just gave Adam Neumann $350 million.  Some people just don't learn.

On a personal level, the housing renovations of 2021 was completed, and the year was spent setting up the new house.  It's gone well.  

I'm looking forward to 2023, and hope it brings joy and happiness to everyone.  Be well.

NBA 2022-2023 Predictions

 

Eastern Conference:

1.       Milwaukee

2.       Philadelphia

3.       Boston

4.       Cleveland

5.       Miami

6.       Toronto

7.       Brooklyn

8.       Atlanta

9.       Chicago

10.     Orlando

11.     Detroit

12.     Washington

13.     New York

14.     Charlotte

15.     Indiana

Playoffs:

·         (play-ins):   Brooklyn over Atlanta; Orlando over Chicago; Atlanta over Orlando

·         Milwaukee over Atlanta, Philadelphia over Brooklyn, Toronto over Boston, Cleveland over Miami

·         Milwaukee over Cleveland, Philadelphia over Toronto

·         Milwaukee over Philadelphia

Western Conference:

1.       Denver

2.       Golden State

3.       Phoenix

4.       Dallas

5.       Memphis

6.       Minnesota

7.       LA Clippers

8.       New Orleans

9.       Sacramento

10.     LA Lakers

11.     Portland

12.     Houston

13.     Oklahoma City

14.     San Antonio

15.     Utah

Playoffs:

·         (play-ins):   New Orleans over LA Clippers; Sacramento over LA Lakers; Sacramento over LA Clippers

·         Denver over Sacramento; Golden State over New Orleans; Minnesota over Phoenix; Memphis over Dallas

·         Denver over Memphis; Golden State over Minnesota

·         Denver over Golden State

More notes:

·         The East has six legitimate threats to come out of the conference, and Indiana is the only team that is likely to be tanking.  I think Boston has too much chaos, and Milwaukee still has both the best player in the East and a deep roster.

·         The West might be even more chaotic.  At one point I had the Clippers as a top 2 team in the conference, which indicates how volatile the conference is.  I also have zero faith in the two Los Angeles teams staying healthy enough to be serious threats.  Golden State is the smart team, but I think they might lose just enough from playing so many games last year that someone will take the crown... and if Murray and Porter can get back to 80%, Denver could be awesome.  

·         There are multiple players that look like they could be franchise-level stars in the draft.  Which means teams are going to tank.  Utah, San Antonio, and Indiana are already tanking.  And there's another 8 teams that if they start slow may blow up the team and try for Wembeyana

·         MVP?  Jokic has won twice in a row, so it's nearly impossible to win again.  Maybe Giannis- but I think this is Luka's to lose.

·         ROY?  I've got Orlando making the play-in game... I'll go with Paolo

·         Finals?  Two teams desperate to overcome their past.  Denver is deep... but Milwaukee has Giannis.  The Greek Freak wins his first title, 4 games to 2

        (NOTE:  I had this exact prediction a few years ago... I'll go with it again)

2022 Baseball Card Thoughts

 Baseball card thoughts:

I finally found some 2022 Topps packs at Target and picked them up.  Since the lockout has ended, I'm still not pleased with the direction of baseball.  But I'll give it a chance to see if my fears (long, slow, boring games dominated by a few teams) come to fruition.  

I've been collecting cards since 1981.  Though I'm no longer serious about collecting, I like to pick up a few packs to check them out.

Pros:

• The overall layout is nice and clean- white border isn't too cluttered
• All of the pictures I've seen are of action shots from games, and the photography is good
• They have lots of stats on the back- not just the most recent year and career

Cons:

• I'll deal with the con specific to Topps 2022 first.  Several of the cards are upside-down.  If you organzie the backs in the same directions, many of the portrait pictures are inverted.  That's just sloppy and lazy
• Now the big problem, which not only applies to this set but to baseball cards in general.  They aren't for collectors.  They are for speculators.  
  
  16 packs cost $40.  That's insane, even with inflation.  Especially when you can buy the entire basic set of 2021 Topps for $70.  Why would anyone buy the packs?
  
  Because the packs have the special insert cards.  Besides the basic set, they also have a chance for the following parallels (same cards with different borders:)

• Gold Foil – (1:2 hobby jumbo, hobby jumbo only)
• Premiere Party
• Rainbow Foil
• Rip Party – (exclusive to Rip Party packs)
• Royal Blue – (1:10 retail, retail only)
• Gold – /2022
• Green Foilboard – /499
• Advanced Stats – /300 (select cards only)
• Orange Foilboard – /299
• Red Foilboard – /199
• Vintage Stock – /99
• Independence Day – /76
• Black – /71 (hobby and hobby jumbo only)
• Father’s Day Powder Blue – /50
• Mother’s Day Hot Pink – /50
• Memorial Day Camo – /25
• Clear – /10 (hobby only, select cards only, list below)
• Platinum – 1/1
• Printing Plates – 1/1 (each has Black, Cyan, Magenta and Yellow versions)

Plus the Short Print Variations.

Plus the Super Short Print Variations

Plus the Ultra Short Print Variations
Plus the autographs.

Plus the parallels on the autographs

Plus the memoribilia cards

Plus the parallels on the memoribilia cards

Plus the 1987 cards

Plus the Chrome versions of the 1987 cards

Plus the...

I'm not joking.  Go to this link and see all of the checklists.  No human being could collect them all.

That's not the point.  It's not for collecting.  It's a lottery- buy a ticket and if you're lucky, you can find something worth much more than you spent.

But the lottery is a bad investment.  And so are baseball cards.  

Too bad... I use to enjoy buying packs and putting together a set.  But I stopped doing that- and under these conditions, I won't start ever again.

NBA Playoff Predictions

First, thank you to the Cleveland Cavaliers.  I've been extremely pissed off about sports lately.  

Major League Baseball has problems that needed addressing.  The games are getting too long, there is less action on the field, and the local tv contracts give some franchises so much revenue that they can overwhelm the other franchises.  The lockout was the perfect opportunity to address these issues- and (IMHO) we ended up in a worse situation than before.  

As for football, the team I used to support just went all in on a man who has been credibly accused of sexual assault 22 times.  They don't even publicly claim that they believe he's innocent; the team just doesn't care.  I don't even get angry now; I'm at the 'my life is better without you' stage of the Cleveland Browns.  

But the Cavs are a young team that has played great.  Injuries killed them, and the last two games kept them out of the playoffs... but they've given me hope, and something to look forward to regarding sports in Northeast Ohio.  Thank you.

Onto the playoff predictions!

First Round:

Eastern Conference:

• Miami (1) over Atlanta (8), 4 games to 2.  Miami is a weird number 1 seed.  The best record, and full of veterans- but no one thinks they are the best team in the East.  Which is probably just where Riley and company want them.  
• Boston (2) over Brooklyn (7), 4 games to 1.  KD is the only reason I don't think this is a sweep
• Milwaukee (3) over Chicago (6), 4 games to 1.  The Bulls even did better than the Cavaliers in exceeding expectations.  But injuries are going to cost them against the defending champions
• Toronto (5) over Philadelphia (4), 4 games to 3.  I have faith in Embiid; I don't have faith in Harden, and both need to be on the top of their game to advance.

Western Conference:

• Phoenix (1) over New Orleans (8), 4 games to 0.  Man, the Pelicans are a weird team.  They have the foundation of a great team, ready for a superstar.  They HAVE that supposed superstar in Zion Williamson.  But he didn't play all year, and has shown no sign of wanting to be there.  Meanwhile, the Suns are awesome.
• Memphis (2) over Minnesota (7), 4 games to 1.  Both are young teams- but Memphis made a much bigger jump than the Timberwolves
• Denver (6) over Golden State (3), 4 games to 3.  Denver's been devastated by injuries- but they have Jokic, and Golden State isn't completely healthy. I'm picking the upset here
• Utah (5) over Dallas (4), 4 games to 1.  Utah is very underrated, and Dallas relies so much on Doncic that I think a veteran team has the edge

Second Round:

Eastern Conference:

• Miami (1) over Toronto (5), 4 games to 2.  Giving this to the veterans
• Milwaukee (3) over Boston (2), 4 games to 3.  I expect everyone to be raving about this series.  Boston has been on a tear lately- it's like they finally put it together.  Tatum is awesome, and they are a deep and clever team... but so is Milwaukee.  And as awesome as Tatum is- Giannis is better.

Western Conference:

• Phoenix (1) over Utah (5), 4 games to 3.  Utah might be in the Boston role- the team that has been good for years that everyone forgets about.  Part of me wants to pick them to play the spoiler.   But... Phoenix is really that damn good.
• Memphis (2) over Denver (6), 4 games to 2. If Denver was healthy, I might pick them to go all the way.  But they aren't, and I think Memphis is the team that really steps up in the playoffs

Conference Finals:

Eastern Conference:

• Milwaukee (3) over Miami (1), 4 games to 3.  Miami will have a chip on their shoulder.  But Milwaukee has the talent to overcome them.

Western Conference:

• Phoenix (1) over Memphis (2), 4 games to 1.  Phoenix is a buzzsaw.  Ja Morant is awesome- but the young Grizzlies run out of steam against the Suns

Finals:

• Phoenix (1) over Milwaukee (3), 4 games to 2.  A repeat of last year's finals.  It's hard to win the title, but it may be harder to repeat.  And the Suns will be on a mission

Your 2021-2022 NBA Champions!

Half a Century

So... I turn 50 years old today.  

Normally, I don't care about my birthday.  It's just a number.  The last one I cared about was 25- and that was because my car insurance rates dropped.  But 50 seems... significant.

I'm a much different person than I was at 40.  In some ways, I wouldn't recognize myself.  (40 year old me:  "When did you stop eating beef and pork?  And you voted for... Joe Biden?  Willingly?").  But I also think that I've become a better person over the past decade.  Closer to the point that I want to be.  And hopefully, I will continue to grow in my fifties.

Thank you all for being in my life.  We all only have one journey, and I appreciate all of you being here as I walk this path.