Sunday, February 7, 2016

The 2016 Presidency

This is a bit of navel-gazing as to who I am supporting for the US Presdidency as of February 7th, 2016.  Feel free to ignore if you don't care.  

I determine who to vote for based on four criteria:

1)  Their policies and philosophy
2)  Are they trustworthy and respectful (the character factor)
3)  How well can they actually govern?
4)  Can they win?

The first factor is important- I'm a Conservative politically, and think the government would do better if it pared down what the size of scope of what it tries to control.  Someone like Bernie Sanders, who wants to vastly increase the amount of government influence in our lives, doesn't appeal to me.  It's the reason I'm most likely voting for a Republican this November.

But within the GOP, the differences are relatively minor.  I don't like Trump for a lot of reasons, but his love of Eminent Domain is a big factor.  But Marco Rubio vs. Ted Cruz vs. Jeb Bush vs. Chris Christie vs. Carly Fiorina... there are differences, but compared to what they agree upon, it's small potatoes.  Every time I take one of those "Who do you side with?" tests, I get a group of about 6 people all around 75-80%  So the policies are an important factor- but it still leaves a wide selection of candidates.

The character factor?  The only two candidates I don't trust are Trump and Clinton- Trump because he's a bully, Clinton because she's secretive and paranoid to the point of breaking the law.  I wasn't supporting either of them anyways.  Ted Cruz is arrogant, and I think his arrogance will hurt him running the country- but that arrogance by itself isn't something that is a bridge too far for me.

How well can they actually govern?  This is a big one, and the problem is, we can only make educated guesses.  I think Obama's biggest problem wasn't his philosophy (though I disagreed with that), but that he never had any executive authority.  He treated every problem like it was a PR problem, and wasn't able to do half of what he wanted to- because he didn't really understand the tasks involved in running the country.

The people who had the best track record in this- Governors Walker, Perry, and Jindal- all quit the race before I could vote for them in the primary.  By the time Ohio votes, there's a good chance Bush and Christie will also bow out.  I like Rubio and Cruz, but I admit being worried about electing a first-term Senator to the White House.  OTOH, Bush has been out of the Governor's office since 2007.  And Christie has been a good governor of New Jersey, but I haven't agreed with his all of his stances.  Then again, I wouldn't agree with all of the stances of any Governor. 

It would be nice to have a longer track record of accomplishments to see how Rubio and Cruz would do.  But the people who could best make that argument are already off the ballot.

That leads to the last factor- can they win?  I know people who won't vote for any candidate unless they agree with them completely, refusing to vote for the 'lesser evil'.  I understand that- not sure I agree.  I don't need 100%, but I'm not sure where that line is.

Right now, there's three candidates who appear to be in position to win the GOP nomination- Ted Cruz, Donald Trump, and Marco Rubio.  I don't like Trump- really, for every reason listed above.  I agree more with Cruz and Rubio, and I think Rubio has a better chance to win.  I don't know which one would do a better job governing the country- my gut is saying Rubio, but would like a better track record.  If one of the other GOP candidates get into position to crack the top tier, I will have to reassess this.

On the Democratic side, it's down to Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders.  I don't agree with Sanders at all.  I also think Clinton would do a better job at the actual task of running the country; whatever her faults, she is very hardworking and wonkish.  But I also think she (like her husband) cuts too many corners, and while I agree with her more than Bernie Sanders, I tend to disagree with her on most positions.  

Ask me who I'd support today, and the answer is Rubio.  But the Ohio Primary isn't until March 15th- we'll see what happens by then.



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