Starting from scratch

 A good news/bad news situation.

The good news is that while I feel I've been in a artistic rut, I think I'm getting out of it.  I've been on a music kick, and it's made me want to pick up the guitar again.  When Jeff Beck passed away I started listening to his playing on videos, and they are incredible.    

I've been trying to teach myself the guitar on and off for thirty years- once taking lessons, but usually trying to teach myself by books and youtube.  It's good that I want to learn

The bad news is that I've realized I have so much to unlearn first.  I've taught myself bad habits, to the point that I have to relearn how to position my left hand to play the frets clearly.

And it's tough.  I have to not bend my wrist, but keep my left thumb straight up down and right behind my middle finger, creating a gap so I'm not bearing any weight on the guitar on my left hand.  Meanwhile, I have to position it so I can't see the frets, and need to figure out where to place my fingers so they are on the right string without dampening the other strings and doing it by feel, and...

This is requiring muscle memory and manual dexterity... two things I'm not known for.

I want to learn, so I'll put in the work (stubborness is something that I am known for).  It's worth the effort.  It's just frustrating to feel like I'm starting from level 1.

2022-2023 NFL Playoffs Support Rankings

The NFL Regular Season is over.  Super Bowl LVII is in a few weeks, and there are 14 teams left in the playoffs.  

I'm ranking them in two methods:  Which teams I want most to win, and which teams I think are most likely to win.

This past offseason, I stopped rooting for the hometown Cleveland Browns, and asked my friends to pick another team for me to root for.  They picked the Buffalo Bills, who have been excellent this year and have never won the Super Bowl (having lost four times in a row).  Combined with the injury to Damar Hamlin, and they are easily the team I most want to win this year.

Most likely to win

1. Buffalo Bills
2. Kansas City Chiefs
3. Cincinnati Bengals
4. Philadelphia Eagles
5. San Francisco 49ers
6. Los Angeles Chargers
7. Dallas Cowboys
8. Minnesota Vikings
9. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
10. Jacksonville Jaguars
11. New York Giants
12. Baltimore Ravens
13. Miami Dolphins
14. Seattle Seahawks

Rooting to win:

1. Buffalo Bills
2. Cincinnati Bengals
3. Minnesota Vikings  (I like rooting for teams that never won it before)
4. Kansas City Chiefs
5. Philadelphia Eagles
6. San Francisco 49ers
7. Los Angeles Chargers
8. Jacksonville Jaguars
9. New York Giants
10. Miami Dolphins 
11. Seattle Seahawks
12. Dallas Cowboys
13. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
14. Baltimore Ravens (yes, I'm still bitter)

Actions have consequences

Supposedly, the US Consumer Product Safety Commission is considering banning gas stoves.  The argument is that these stoves cause indoor pollution that lead to childhood asthma.  I don't know how strong the evidence is, or what improvements they expect if gas stoves are banned.

I use a gas stove in my kitchen- and so does about 35% of the country.  That's about 40 million US households.  A number of people prefer using gas instead of electricity because it controls the heat better.  Induction heat stoves work well, but are expensive and not all pots and pans can use them. Banning gas stoves would be a significant- and expensive- change.

Here are some questions that I have:

1)  If gas stoves should be banned because of indoor pollution, shouldn't gas heating also be banned for the same reason?

2)  Not only will gas stoves require buying new stoves, but also paying an electrician to install the electrical outlets required for these stove.  If this expense something the government who is banning the stove should pay for, or will they expense be passed on to the homeowner or landlord?

3)  Most electric stoves require 220VAC outlet.  Many kitchens using gas stoves do not have that outlet, and it will require an electrician to install a 220VAC outlet.  This is another expense, as well as a time sink.  

4)  The additional electric load from having people switching from gas to electrical will put additional burdens on the grid.  Is the intention to build more power plants to handle the additional burden?

5)  Many areas of the country deal with power outages (from storms or brownouts), and being able to cook food without relying on electricity is a lifesaver.  Banning gas stoves is an additional risk.

Do I think the US will actually ban gas stoves?  No.  I think they are floating this as a test balloon to test the reaction of the voters.  I don't think they are serious (though I've been proven wrong before)

Do I think it's a good idea?  I think it's a huge burden for a large part of the country, and something that will backfire badly if imposed without thinking through the consequences.  The US Consumer Product Safety Commission is going to need quite a bit of hard evidence before they will convince the voters this is a good idea.

I'm biased- I like my gas stove, and don't want to go through the expense of changing it.  but I could also handle the expense if it was required, and I suspect many people could not.  If you're going to make a move that affects this much of the country, you'd better be sure it's necessary.  

Three cheers for the optimists

Last night, the TV show "60 Minutes" had an article about the planet being in the middle of an extinction crisis.  And they interviewed, in the article... Paul Ehrlich

Paul Ehrlich is famous, in 1968, for writing 'The Population Bomb', a book famous for predicting mass starvation in the 1970s.  Which turned out to be wrong.  He also predicted that the United Kingdom would not exist by the year 2000, that all important sea life would be extinct by 1980... Pretty much every prediction Ehrlich made in his book was wrong.  Hell, Economist Julian Simon made a wager with Ehrlich about resources getting scarcer... and won the bet.

8,000,000,000 strong... and growing.

Basically, Ehrlich is a doomsayer who predicted the end of mankind over 50 years ago, was proven wrong time and again... and is still considered an expert who gets interviewed on tv.  Maybe this time, the Apocalypse will really happen.  

But... here's the thing.  The world's getting better.  Starvation-level poverty is dropping.  We are taking steps to creating a carbon-free energy resource that is nearly limitless.  We're even using gene editing tools to treat leukaemia.  

Are there still problems and concerns?  Absolutely... there always are.  But looking objectively, there's no reason for this 'The World is Coming to an End' bullshit panic that 60 minutes seems to be embracing.  I can't believe anyone takes Ehrlich seriously.  I'd have thought people would ignore him, and I would have been wrong.

But not as wrong as Ehrlich.

2023: Predictions and Hopes

 In less than 36 hours, we change over to the new year.  I will celebrate the new year by crossing the Wilford Brimley-Coccon line.

Here are my predictions for what the next twelve months will bring.  The actual key predictions will be underlined.  As always, these are just the ramblings of the author- please do not rely on them when making any decisions, especially financial ones:

1)  Three technologies- Artificial Intelligence, Fusion Energy, and Genetic Editing- will continue to make progress.  In each case, there will be advancements (genetic editing is already being used to treat genetic diseases.) Also in each case, there will be a backlash that will develop, becoming one more front on the US culture war

2)  The Ukraine-Russia war will continue throughout 2023.  As Russia gets caught in a stalemate, they will focus on putting pressure on the Western nations to force Ukraine to come to peace talks, painting Ukraine as the villain if Ukraine won't just give up 'some' of their country.

China, eying Taiwan, is watching closely.  Any sign of weakness on the part of the West will encourage them to find a pretense to invade Taiwan.

3) The US just had their 2022 elections- which means they will gear up for the 2024 Presidential elections.  Each party is facing an existential crisis that will just start heating up over the next year.

The Democrats will need to decide if they trust Joe Biden (who turned 80 last month) as President for four more years.  Someone who is not considered a top tier contender will challenge him on the Democratic side, and every public stumble will have the voters consider throwing their support behind the challenger.   

4)  The GOP needs to decide if they will break off their toxic relationship with Donald Trump.  I think the GOP Establishment saw enough in 2022 to know how toxic he is.  The Establishment will discourage any other contenders from running to anoint Florida Governor Ron DeSantis as the frontrunner to defeat Trump in the primaries and go after Biden in 2024 (much like the Democratics did with Biden in 2020).

5)  Let's go with some more lighthearted areas to wrap this up:

* The Buffalo Bills will defeat the Philadelphia Eagles to win their first Super Bowl Title

* The Boston Celtics will defeat the Denver Nuggets to win the NBA Title

* The Los Angeles Dodgers will defeat the New York Yankees to win the World Series

* "Everything Everywhere All At Once" will win the best Picture of the Year

We will check back in twelve months to see how the predictions fared.

Be well.

GOP- what do you stand for?

 "(They) never miss an opportunity to miss an opportunity."

Israeli diplomat Abba Eban was talking about the Arabs.  But right now, that quote is how I feel about the Republican Party.

Last week, Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky visited the US.   And many (Though thankfully not all) on the right used this as an opportunity to... attack Zelensky.  Examples.  Are.  Plentiful.  

....

....

Umm... guys?  Speaking as a longtime Reagan fan here:  If you can't be accused of being a warmongering savage who wants to nuke the world to stop the evil commies.... what's the point of being a Republican?

Anyone who thinks today's Republicans are cut from the same cloth as the Buckley/Goldwater/Reagan Conservative movement that dominated the GOP from the 1960's through 2000's aren't paying attention.

The 1980's Conservative movement was dominated by four cornerstones:

1)  A strong military built up to stop the Soviet Union

2)  Lower taxes and reduced regulation to help businesses, along with increased free trade

3)  A smaller government in size and scope, encouraging less dependency on the state

4)  The Moral Majority- fighting cultural issues like pornography, abortion, etc.

At times, the cornerstones clashed (given a choice between lower taxes and smaller government, taxes won out every single time).  But the Republican Party stood for something, whether you agreed with it or not.

(Side note:  The Democrat Party, now and back then, didn't have four cornerstones.  They had fifty different groups all pushing for different agendas.  It's not coherent or consistent, but it is a working model)

But now, in 2022?  The Soviet Union collapsed.  Today's right wing seems to have no appetite for a bigger military or a smaller government.

OK, fine... the issues of 2022 are not the same as the issues of 1982.  Trying to keep the exact same platform will likely result in losing.

So what does the Republican Party stand for?  Not the rhetoric- what are they actually willing to vote on and risk losing their seats to support?

I don't know the answer- and I pay enough attention that I should know the answer.  

I've heard people complain about partisanship being high.  I don't mind that- partisanship is always high.  What's different, in my humble opinion, is that the partisanship isn't about anything.  And, ironically, because it's about so little, it makes the vitriol much worse.

Another quote- "Academic politics is the most vicious and bitter form of politics, because the stakes are so low."   That's how I feel about the parties now.  They don't really argue about anything, so the fights are more vicious.

Which party wants to help Ukraine more?  Which party is actually willing to raise taxes?  In the past decade, both parties have had times when they controlled both parts of Congress and the Presidency.  And both times, they find excuses not to do anything significant.  

I don't write about politics anymore (current post being an exception), because it doesn't mean anything.  I don't think either party stands for anything except whatever current trend makes them popular enough to win re-election. 

There's an election coming up in 2024 (there's always another election).  It's an opportunity for the GOP to define what they stand for.  But I fear it's just another opportunity to miss an opportunity. 

Wrapping up 2022; The year we found out.

 2022... what a decade this year has been.

Possibly that's not fair.  It does feel like this year lasted forever, but it's certainly better than 2020 (aka the Plague Year)

If the year had a theme, it feels like this was the year many assumptions over the past decade were called out, faced reality, and did not do well.  Some examples:

- The country of Russia under Putin, which has been portrayed as a World Power, invaded Ukraine and has done poorly against a country that is a fraction of their size.  It seems like the world is in the middle of an experiment... can they put enough pressure on an invading country to leave, without sending troops and escalating the war?  

- The 'genius' of Elon Musk, who bought Twitter for $44 billion (that's $44,000,000,000.00) and became an embarassment as a consequence for his purchase

- Cryptocurrency.  Sam Bankman-Fried, another proclaimed 'genius', has been charged with fraud and has over $8 billion of customer's money is nowhere to be found.  I could never understand cryptocurrency enough to invest in it, but so many people vouched for it that I wondered if there was something I was missing.  Too much fraud has shown Crypto to be a paper tiger.

- The Republican Party.  They spent 2022 replaying the same playbook they did in 2016, and it was a disaster for them.  The economy is doing poorly, the voters are unhappy with the direciton of the country- and they'd still rather give the Democrats another couple of years rather than turn the Seante over to the GOP.  Both parties need to decide what it is exactly that they stand for- but this is especially true for the GOP.  And they don't have much time- the 2024 Presidential election is already underway.

There's a saying of "Fuck Around and Find Out".  Well, 2022 seems to be the year we found out.

So, in a lot of ways, the hype of certain groups was held up to the light, and failed.  Hopefully, we've learned our lessons about listening to the hype without asking questions.

Then again, a Venutre Capital firm just gave Adam Neumann $350 million.  Some people just don't learn.

On a personal level, the housing renovations of 2021 was completed, and the year was spent setting up the new house.  It's gone well.  

I'm looking forward to 2023, and hope it brings joy and happiness to everyone.  Be well.